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J-Dog Dungan

2 1st round draft picks not signing this year?

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According to MLBTradeRumors, both Kevin Gausman (1,4 Orioles) and Mark Appel (1,8 Pirates) are both leaning against signing with their draft teams, both for different reasons.
When teams learned that Appel, a Scott Boras client, wanted a $6 million+ bonus, he fell down all the way to the Pirates at the #8 pick. This means that instead of being able to get that much money for getting picked at #'s 1-3, he dropped to #8, and the most the Pirates can offer him without losing a first round draft pick in 2013 is $3.84 million, and the Pirates don't want to lose that pick. Therefore, Appel is not likely to sign with the Pirates unless he unbends and accepts the lower money.

Gausman, on the other hand, wants to return to LSU to win the College World Series as he believes the Tigers have the personnel to do it. Therefore, Gausman, while he is still in talks with the Orioles, seems more interested in returning for his senior year.

Not that I want the Twins to totally collapse in the second half, but if both of these pitchers are available in next years draft, especially Gausman, that could seriously help the Twins out. Unfortunately, if Gausman does really well, then the Twins might need to have the worst record in the Majors to have a chance at him. Therefore, while it may be painful to watch them be bad enough to earn a draft pick high enough to draft Gausman, he would do a lot to help the Twins rebuild their thin high-echelon pitching ranks in the Minors.

In case you were wondering, the Twins currently have the 6th worst record in the Majors at 36-49 and a .424 winning %, with Philly as #7 at 37-50 and a .425 winning %. The five teams ahead of the Twins are Seattle with a .414 winning %, San Diego with a .391 winning %, Cubs and Rockies tied at a .388 winning %, and Houston with the worst W-L record at a .384 winning %.

I would think that to get Gausman, the Twins would probably need anywhere from the 1st-3rd worst record, as it is unlikely that his stock will drop over the next year (unless he gets a major injury) and more likely that it will rise, and to rise from the #4 overall pick, you have the #1-3 overall picks.
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Comments

  1. Fire Dan Gladden's Avatar
    Anybody else think that Boras may have trouble getting draft signees in his stable if Appel doesn't sign?
  2. J-Dog Dungan's Avatar
    I think he will, especially with these new restrictions on signing bonuses
  3. mike wants wins's Avatar
    Assuming neither is injured, I think KLAW has already said they are the top 2 prospects for next year, given what we know right now. That is very subject to change, as someone will step up, but both of these guys would be at or near the top.

    That said, they will be college seniors, and have no leverage. At this point, it is between taking real money now, or going to school and losing a year of income (and maybe making more, and maybe making less).
  4. James's Avatar
    It sounds like Appel is looking for cash, and Gausman wants to leave his mark on his college. I guess I can't blame Gausman for that part.

    You forgot to mention that even with the 6th worst record, the Twins would be picking 7th in draft as Baltimore would get a compensation pick immediately after the pick they lost (I assume that is still the case in the top 10 picks, but they are protected, so I'm not really sure how that works).

    Next year's draft class is supposed to be much deeper, so even if the Twins don't end up with either of these guys, they very well could end up with someone of a similar caliber. But who knows, they could both go back to college and wear down their arms so much that they end up being useless.
  5. J-Dog Dungan's Avatar
    James, I am not sure that the Orioles would get the pick with the new rules that are in play with the CBA, but don't trust me on that.
  6. IdahoPilgrim's Avatar
    I remember a number of posters who wanted us to take Gausman instead of Buxton.

    Sounds like we made the right choice.
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