Twins over the next 52 games
by, 08-08-2012 at 01:47 AM (913 Views)
So, the Twins have 52 games left in this 2012 season. We can all agree that the first two months of the season were probably the hardest things for us to watch since last year. The ray of light that has us moving up the standings comes from the Twins being 13-12 since the All-Star Break, and at least four of their losses were very close and could have gone either way.
So, I am much more of a late-night person than an early morning person, so I decided to look at the Twins' record against the Central when they have been successful. It was overwhelming; the years that the Twins were successful were years when they were putting it to their rivals in the Central.
So this brings me to the point of this post. While the chances of the Twins making a postseason run are virtually nonexistant, there is that .000001% chance that they do make one, and I believe that it would involve taking it to their rivals in the Central, with whom they still share much of their remaining schedule. (Just go with me on this, I need to express the feeling of hope that is growing inside of me.)
Of the next 52 games, 29 are against the Indians, Royals, Tigers, and White Sox. In the last decade (2002-2012), they have played their foes in the Central to an average win % of .561. Theoretically, if the Twins were to go by the average of this %, they would win about 16.3 of the 29 games (must include extra innings). With the way they are playing however, I fully believe that they could play to a winning percentage of .585, which would mean they would win about 17 of those games.
The other 23 games are comprised of 14 versus the West, who the Twins have played to a .523 winning percentage over the last decade, and, unfortunately, 9 games against the East. Of course, the Twins' woes against the East are well documented, especially against the Yankees, so I think the Twins should be happy to win 4 of those 9 games. Now, against the West, the Twins, if the averages are correct, would win about 7 of those games. I think they will do better than that, because in recent years they have seemed to have Texas's number. So give them around 9 out of 14.
Given the math, and then my guesses, here is what I am predicting for the Twins' record over the last 52 games:
Math: 27-25, about the record we were expecting the Twins to have this year, just around .520
My wildest dreams: 35-17; a .673 winning percentage and very close to a wild card spot
My more realistic dreams: 29-23; a .557 winning percentage and should give them 3rd place, barring a collapse from Detroit and Chicago and a hot streak from the Indians or Royals.