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Cleansing The Twins 40 Man Roster

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The Twins are sitting with a nearly filled quota on the 40 man roster and it's somewhat ugly. Only one vacant spot is available while starting pitchers P.J. Walters, Carl Pavano, and Scott Baker are on the 60 day DL. Soon enough, positions on this assembly will need to be cleared in order to make way for these incoming players. For now, it's not a problem, but there are a lot of gentlemen here that could and should be removed sooner rather than later. Priority will of course be assessed for who leaves first, but there are a lot of other changes I'd like to see made in the offseason too. Not only are there a few subtractions, but a couple of additions as well.


#1. Tsuyoshi Nishioka- Status: Not on Active Roster What to do?! DFA
I think it's safe to say he won't be playing with the Twins again for some time. In all likeliness (and hopefulness), the 28 year old international bust never re-joins the big league team for the remainder of his contract. It's really safe to say that no other team would save us from...I mean claim him. I would be fine with out-right waivers, but that gives him the opportunity to make more money back in Japan. An expensive AAA filler would be the best option and it benefits us somewhat.
STATS:
Year Tm G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+ TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB
2011-2012 MIN 71 254 233 14 50 5 0 0 20 2 4 16 44 .215 .267 .236 .503 41 55 1 1 3 1 1
Note: I found it rather amusing to see he had once been intentionally walked.

#2. Rene Tosoni- Status: Not on Active Roster What to do? DFA
The once promising outfielder failed in a 2011 campaign with the Twins and has been lost ever since. Tosoni has been struggling to break a .650 OPS in AA where he has been re-acquainted with for the first time since 2010. Is there still hope for him? Possibly, but probably not as a struggling 25 year old in an outfield deep system. He doesn't have much in the tools department either, and while he could get claimed, it would be best for the Twins to have that spot and for Tosoni to get a chance someplace else. I really enjoyed having him with the team though. His spunky personality and hilarious walk-up song were entertaining while they lasted.

STATS:
Year Age Tm Lg G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+ TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB Pos Awards
2011 24 MIN AL 60 189 172 20 35 7 1 5 22 0 2 14 42 .203 .275 .343 .618 70 59 2 3 0 0 0 7/D9

Note: It's surprisingly difficult to get a Minor League format for these tables.

#3. Kyle Waldrop- Status: Not on Active Roster What to do? Waive
The first two seem like the least difficult choices on deciding who gets to come back. It wouldn't surprise me if they used the remaining open position once all three of Walters, Baker, and Pavano return. That's not to say Waldrop really needs a spot on here regardless. He's a soft tosser who infrequently can throw 90mph and suffice to say, strikeouts are also a rarity. Waldrop has been unsuccessful over the past two years in the MLB, but to his credit, he has only pitched 15 MLB innings combined. I don't think there's much of an incentive to keep him here past this offseason. More serviceable back up arms like Deduno and Devries exist when they inevitably lose their 25 man spots to new free agents. A #5 starter or long reliever is about as high a ceiling you'll get with the 26 year old high draftee from 2004.

STATS (Don't mean really mean anything):
Year Tm W L W-L% ERA G GS GF CG SHO SV IP H R ER HR BB IBB SO HBP BK WP BF ERA+ WHIP H/9 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9 SO/BB
2011-2012 MIN 1 1 .500 5.40 11 0 2 0 0 0 15.0 17 9 9 2 9 2 6 1 0 1 71 79 1.733 10.2 1.2 5.4 3.6 0.67

Note: Nothing really. I just wanted to continue the trend this far.


#4. Jeff Manship- Status: On 25 Man Roster What to do? DFA in offseason
Four years of flirting with the majors with this player. He's not much more than a AAA starter and while there is a little potential, I don't see it. More or less, similar projection to Waldrop at best with better K numbers. As stated, somewhat of a strikeout pitcher, yet I refuse to picture him ever cracking the starting rotation. He's 27 now and it's about time to move on. He'll help Rochester win, but not Minnesota. Sort of like Clete Thomas.. the pitcher. Quite frankly I'd have him at a higher priority than Waldrop if he weren't in the majors right now.

STATS:
Year Tm W L W-L% ERA G GS GF CG SHO SV IP H R ER HR BB IBB SO HBP BK WP BF ERA+ WHIP H/9 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9 SO/BB
2009-2012 MIN 3 2 .600 6.42 40 6 5 0 0 0 82.2 106 63 59 11 32 2 54 1 0 2 376 66 1.669 11.5 1.2 3.5 5.9 1.69

#5 Jeff Gray- Status: On 25 Man Roster What to do? Release in offseason
In a strange way, I sort of feel for him. He's not good, but I want him to succeed since he tries hard. On the other hand, isn't it time this experiment ended?! As a reliever, the biggest thing I ask is to be reliable and consistent. That's not what Jeff Gray is and it's a crapshoot every time he steps on the mound. Gray doesn't have a good track record either and is a walk machine. Have a look at all of his per 9 ratios and you'll find that none of them are acceptable and some are unbelievably putrid. Take that SO/BB as the biggest offender in the stats below.

STATS:
Year Tm W L W-L% ERA G GS GF CG SHO SV IP H R ER HR BB IBB SO HBP BK WP BF ERA+ WHIP H/9 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9 SO/BB
2010-2012 CHC,CHW,SEA,MIN 7 2 .778 4.85 81 0 22 0 0 1 104.0 112 59 56 11 47 2 50 6 1 8 470 84 1.529 9.7 1.0 4.1 4.3 1.06

#6 Carl Pavano- Status: 60 Day DL/Impending FA What to do? Let him walk
Not much to be said here, but Pavano was a key part of the Twins short postseason visit back in 2010. He's far too old to be a future component and the ship has already sailed. The Twins are going to see if he can get healthy for a waiver trade, but I'll believe it when I see it. I suspect the dugout tirades will be missed by Twins fans everywhere.

STATS:
Year Tm W L W-L% ERA G GS GF CG SHO SV IP H R ER HR BB IBB SO HBP BK WP BF ERA+ WHIP H/9 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9 SO/BB
2010-2012 MIN 28 29 .491 4.27 76 76 0 10 3 0 506.0 569 264 240 56 85 4 252 16 2 8 2129 96 1.292 10.1 1.0 1.5 4.5 2.96

#7 Matt Capps- Status: 15 Day DL/Impending FA What to do? Let him walk
A blown draft pick and a young catching prospect later, we've all had our gripes with him. Another player here that hopefully can get us something through waivers. He didn't pitch bad for the Twins, but the front office's infatuation with him was strange. I'll happily see him go for another roster spot here.

STATS:
Year Tm W L W-L% ERA G GS GF CG SHO SV IP H R ER HR BB IBB SO HBP BK WP BF ERA+ WHIP H/9 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9 SO/BB
2010-2012 WSN,MIN 10 14 .417 3.40 172 0 129 0 0 71 167.0 167 71 63 21 34 6 111 4 0 5 694 121 1.204 9.0 1.1 1.8 6.0 3.26


#8 Carlos Guiterrez- Status: Not on Active Roster What to do? Waive
Out with a shoulder injury if I'm not mistaken, Guiterrez has been a bust for the Twins. He really hasn't had a 2012 and 2011 was mediocre. He's spent 5 years in the system and hasn't thrown for the Twins once. I doubt he'll be a servicable player, but he could end up being a great reliever. It's difficult to tell since he's only pitched 82 Innings in AAA through the past 3 years. Over his minor league career, he's allowed far too many baserunners, has a below average WHIP, and bad walk rate. The strikeout ability would be enough for me to keep him for another year. Although, he's treading on thin ice as an underachieving 25 year old. I'd wouldn't pull him back should he be claimed, but I doubt it would be necessary.

STATS:
2011 AAA/ 4.62ERA 1.460 WHIP 8.2 K/9 4.5BB/9


#9 Deolis Guerra- Status: Not on Active Roster What to do? Waive
Guerra is somewhat young at 23 and hasn't sniffed the big leagues yet, so it may surprise a few. I'm not a big believer in him and wouldn't mind if he left the organization. He's had three years of shuffling between Rochester and New Britain as a starter (and now reliever) with no success. Scouts love his changeup and improving K/9 rate, but I don't love his BB/9 or ERA. Another pitcher I wouldn't revoke if claimed.

STATS:
2010-2012 (Cumulative AA+AAA)/ 5.69 ERA 1.454 WHIP 7.69K/9 2.99BB/9


#10 Aaron Hicks- Status: Not on 40 Man Roster What to do? Add
Hicks is an obvious choice to be added before the Rule 5 draft. I think the Twins will save an option year by avoiding September call-ups and wait to add him at the end of the season. Hicks projects to be a very exciting player and the future heir to centerfield.

#11 David Bromberg- Status: Not on 40 Man Roster What to do? Add
It's great to see Bromberg bouncing back after a poor 2011. He's re-established himself this year and I think we could see him compete for the rotation next year. David Bromberg would probably get drafted in the Rule 5 too this season. 2011 was his first year of eligibility for selection, but his season was so awful that he wasn't chosen.

#12 Kyle Gibson-Status: Not on 40 Man Roster What to do? Add
Another obvious choice for addition. Gibson is progressing along nicely and will have to be added so he can pitch next year. If everything goes according to plan of course.

#13 Scott Baker and Jared Burton- Statuses: Impending FAs What to do? Re-Sign Both
I'd really like to see both players back next year. Standing pat.

SOME MATH:
I would expect the roster spot owners of #1-9 to be freed up easily. Bringing in 2 from the 60 Day DL (Not Pavano at season's end) and 3 from addition gives the Twins 35/40 spots freed in the offseason. As proof..... 39-9+2+3=35

This entire offense is under contract for next season, but depending on what the Twins sign for pitching in the offseason, it may affect some of the others players well-beings. I would have released Blackburn and took his spot, but I don't believe the Twins will cut him. I do think they'll bring back Baker and hopefully Burton.
SPs: Baker, Gibson, Diamond, Blackburn, Walters, Devries, Deduno, Hendriks, Hernandez, Bromberg

With that state, the Twins should probably sign 2 free agent pitchers in addition to Baker if they want to contend. The offense we have is above average and a few new pitching counterparts would really help and make this team competitive in a weak AL Central. There still looks like too many starters on the 40 man despite the deletions of Manship, Waldrop, and Pavano.

RPs: Burnett, Burton, Duensing, Fien, Perdomo, Oliveros, Perkins, Robertson, Swarzak

That's 9 relievers and not enough. This entire group looks awful and it's full of question marks besides Perkins and Burton. The Twins like to roll with 8 here and only 1 backup isn't good. I'd like to sign a couple of more established relievers, but it if they sign 2 FA pitchers it gets complicated. I think they may have to make a few tough decisions on Walters, Fien, Perdomo, Deduno, Devries, and Blackburn if they want to have a good bullpen to compliment the rotation.

The Twins aren't far from contention and have played above .500 since May and a couple of new pieces would put them in a very good position. It all depends on how aggressive they chose to be in free agency. They'll likely do a little addition by subtraction in a Timberwolves-esque style of improvement too. The draft picks were nice, but it's not far-fetched to think a solid 2013 lies ahead!

Updated 08-15-2012 at 10:48 AM by John Bonnes (see comment)

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  1. Seth Stohs's Avatar
    Good first look at this... Just a few notes:

    Burton isn't a free agent at the end of the year. He has one more year of arbitration. But the story is the same, in my opinion, you bring him back.

    I'd like to see Manship get some starts the rest of the way, probably taking Duensing's spot and pushing him back to the bullpen. Manship did well for Rochester as a starter, and I'd like to see him get 6-7 starts at the end of the season. (I'd also like to see Hendriks come up after Rochester's season is done and push Blackburn to the bullpen for the rest of the season.)

    As for Guerra, I tend to agree with you, and yet, the Twins need to decide if they're going to contend next year or not. If they're looking to 2014, then there's no harm in keeping him around and giving him April and May to make an impression.

    I still believe in Rene Tosoni despite this being immensely disappointing, but I tend to agree with you on that one too, but for a different reason. Arcia's on the 40 man, and Hicks needs to be added after the season.

    You have them adding Hicks, Gibson and Bromberg. I"m a big Bromberg guy, but I'd be shocked if he was added again at this time. Here are some other names that have to be considered for adding to the 40 man: Chris Herrmann (given), BJ Hermsen (probable), Dakota Watts and Bruce Pugh (I'd think at least one of them), Danny Santana (pure SS with a little pop, I think he's added). Adrian Salcedo would have been if not for a lost, injury-filled season. What about Michael Tonkin? Deibinson Romero could be a minor league free agent, and he's had a good year. Could he be added again? Where does Anthony Slama fit in? How about Caleb Thielbar? Because of all of those, I wouldn't be surprised if there are quite a few players dropped from the current 40 man (including Deduno and De Vries, maybe?) and hopefully Blackburn.

    Good discussion!
  2. Winston Smith's Avatar
    My question is what are the chances of Baker making any ML starts prior to around June 1 next year? Why would you tie up payroll and a 40 man spot on a guy you really don't know if he'll ever be the same? Isn't it more likely some team signs Baker to a make good contract in the spring after he has had time to throw and show what he has?
  3. John Bonnes's Avatar
    I hope you don't mind, but I deleted the "Title" font you had because of it's affect on the front page blog area. Great story.
  4. YourHouseIsMyHouse's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by Seth Stohs
    Good first look at this... Just a few notes:

    Burton isn't a free agent at the end of the year. He has one more year of arbitration. But the story is the same, in my opinion, you bring him back.

    I'd like to see Manship get some starts the rest of the way, probably taking Duensing's spot and pushing him back to the bullpen. Manship did well for Rochester as a starter, and I'd like to see him get 6-7 starts at the end of the season. (I'd also like to see Hendriks come up after Rochester's season is done and push Blackburn to the bullpen for the rest of the season.)

    As for Guerra, I tend to agree with you, and yet, the Twins need to decide if they're going to contend next year or not. If they're looking to 2014, then there's no harm in keeping him around and giving him April and May to make an impression.

    I still believe in Rene Tosoni despite this being immensely disappointing, but I tend to agree with you on that one too, but for a different reason. Arcia's on the 40 man, and Hicks needs to be added after the season.

    You have them adding Hicks, Gibson and Bromberg. I"m a big Bromberg guy, but I'd be shocked if he was added again at this time. Here are some other names that have to be considered for adding to the 40 man: Chris Herrmann (given), BJ Hermsen (probable), Dakota Watts and Bruce Pugh (I'd think at least one of them), Danny Santana (pure SS with a little pop, I think he's added). Adrian Salcedo would have been if not for a lost, injury-filled season. What about Michael Tonkin? Deibinson Romero could be a minor league free agent, and he's had a good year. Could he be added again? Where does Anthony Slama fit in? How about Caleb Thielbar? Because of all of those, I wouldn't be surprised if there are quite a few players dropped from the current 40 man (including Deduno and De Vries, maybe?) and hopefully Blackburn.

    Good discussion!
    Thanks for the post and I may be a little higher on Bromberg than I should be. Personally, I'd give him a shot to make the majors next year if he continues to finish strong in ROC. Herrmann and Slama were two big ones I overlooked and I thought Hermsen was another year away from having to be added (5 years of minor league ownership before Rule 5 qualification?). It must be four if you're also including Santana and Tonkin as well. Maybe I'm wrong. I would be surprised if Santana and Tonkin were added because they aren't very high upside guys and both are still in A+. Pugh and Watts could both be good internal bullpen options, but I'd lean more towards Pugh. Overall I like Pugh, Herrmann, Hermsen, Thielbar, and Slama as additions. That's over 40 though. Just goes to show how competitive players will have to be to earn a spot.
  5. YourHouseIsMyHouse's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by John Bonnes
    I hope you don't mind, but I deleted the "Title" font you had because of it's affect on the front page blog area. Great story.
    Not at all. I honestly didn't realize it would pop out like that and was surprised and a little embarrassed when I saw it. My excuse is that it was a late night post.
  6. Seth Stohs's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by Winston Smith
    My question is what are the chances of Baker making any ML starts prior to around June 1 next year? Why would you tie up payroll and a 40 man spot on a guy you really don't know if he'll ever be the same? Isn't it more likely some team signs Baker to a make good contract in the spring after he has had time to throw and show what he has?
    He'd likely be put on the 60 Day Disabled List as soon as they could in the season. A team will sign him to a contract knowing that he likely wouldn't be able to pitch in a big league game until at least June 1. Based on the Kyle Gibson TJ recovery timeline, Baker should be ready to pitch in May, but a team would be wise to see how spring training goes and determine a plan for rehab appearances. Other option is to sign him to a minor league contract with an opt-out date of like July 1. But, that's unlikely. HE'll get a MLB contract.
  7. Seth Stohs's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by YourHouseIsMyHouse
    Thanks for the post and I may be a little higher on Bromberg than I should be. Personally, I'd give him a shot to make the majors next year if he continues to finish strong in ROC. Herrmann and Slama were two big ones I overlooked and I thought Hermsen was another year away from having to be added (5 years of minor league ownership before Rule 5 qualification?). It must be four if you're also including Santana and Tonkin as well. Maybe I'm wrong. I would be surprised if Santana and Tonkin were added because they aren't very high upside guys and both are still in A+. Pugh and Watts could both be good internal bullpen options, but I'd lean more towards Pugh. Overall I like Pugh, Herrmann, Hermsen, Thielbar, and Slama as additions. That's over 40 though. Just goes to show how competitive players will have to be to earn a spot.
    Just an FYI - Bromberg was sent down to New Britain today.

    Rule 5 qualifications for this postseason...

    Players signed who were less than 19 years old when they signed in 2008, OR
    Players signed who were 19 years old or older when they signed in 2009.

    I dont' think that Slama will be added. He's been made available several times (via Rule 5 draft or when he was taken off 40 man roster last fall) and no one has claimed him. He still has another year of Twins control. Of course, I believe Slama should be added to the 40 man roster for September, so the question would be whether or not they would keep him on it after the season.
  8. YourHouseIsMyHouse's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by Seth Stohs
    Just an FYI - Bromberg was sent down to New Britain today.

    Rule 5 qualifications for this postseason...

    Players signed who were less than 19 years old when they signed in 2008, OR
    Players signed who were 19 years old or older when they signed in 2009.

    I dont' think that Slama will be added. He's been made available several times (via Rule 5 draft or when he was taken off 40 man roster last fall) and no one has claimed him. He still has another year of Twins control. Of course, I believe Slama should be added to the 40 man roster for September, so the question would be whether or not they would keep him on it after the season.
    Yeah I looked at the rules more closely and saw it was 5 years if they were 18 years old and 4 if they were 19 or older when signed. Right here's not really a good place to discuss it, but I'd really like to know why he was demoted.
  9. Rosterman's Avatar
    Yeah, wouldn't be surprised if DeVries is dropped, and depending on how he returns, Walters. Both getting resigned as minor league free agents, if hey wish. Players like that will be on the bubble. Twins have to decide on Baker and Casilla, and would they keep Manship and, say, let Swarzak walk. Deduno is an interesting guy...a few more starts. And I wouldn't consider Florimon a given........or Butera, if you have to add another catcher. The question is, will the guys then jump ship, rather than stay and give the Twins depth in the minors........And Bromberg and Slama. Really, when you look at the Rule 5 guys and the minor free agents, there isn't much that need protecting.....or that other teams will sweep in and grab.
  10. YourHouseIsMyHouse's Avatar
    After more thought: Blackburn, Devries, Walters, Florimon, Butera, and Casilla should all be new open spots too. I was really thinking about Butera with Herrmann incoming, yet I couldn't see him go. Maybe they finally move on. This is more wishful thinking than what I had been expecting in the original blog post. Overall I'd be content with this. I'll take the original word on Bromberg.

    Pitchers: Baker, Burnett, Burton, Deduno, Diamond, Duensing, Fien, Gibson, Hendriks, Hermsen, Hernandez, Oliveros, Perdomo, Perkins, Pugh, Robertson, and Swarzak
    17 Pitchers

    Position: Doumit, Herrmann, Mauer, Carroll, Dozier, Escobar, Morneau, Parmelee, Plouffe, Arcia, Benson, Hicks, Mastroianni, Revere, Span, Willingham
    16 Players


    That's a total of 33 spots. 7 Free Spots for 2 SP Free Agents, two bullpen arms (One LHP and one RHP), and 1 middle infield FA would put the Twins at a comfortable 38. 15 players were dumped in this process and 9 were added. I think this makes it look a lot better and it really goes to show it is a mess! Fien and Perdomo are big question marks, but I feel like they have earned their spots for now. I'm feeling maybe Slama, Bromberg, and Thielbar could all vie for spot later in the 2013 season, but not the offseason. Great discussion and I definitely learned quite a bit from conversing and have a better idea of the 40 man for next year as well. NOW what would be really interesting would be to track down the approximate payroll for this situation and see how much money can be dispensed on free agents.
    Updated 08-15-2012 at 06:08 PM by YourHouseIsMyHouse
  11. Rosterman's Avatar
    Sometimes you get lucky and your guys hang around for additional seasons (Waldrop, DeVries). It all depends on the money. Most veteran minor league guys can make $50-60,000. The Twins look pettygood to go after 25-30 guys again, with pretty much all of Rochester disappearing.
  12. twinstalker's Avatar
    DeVries has no chance of staying on the 40.
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