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Lonestar

Let's Discuss Justin Morneau - Again

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On 11-Oct,Seth asked: “When can the Twins compete again?” How you answer that question affects the answer to the question: What to do with Justin Morneau? [Not tomention Josh Willingham.] Or is it the other way around?

So let’sdiscuss Justin Morneau – again.

1. Did you support trading Justin Morneau before last season’s trade deadline?
2. What do you think Morneau’s slash stats will be in 2013 if he plays half ofhis games at Target Field?
3. What do you think Chris Parmelee’s slash stats will be in 2013 if he playshalf of his games at Target Field as a regular?
4. What do you do with Parmelee if Morneau is still a Twin?
5. Do you support trading Morneau this off-season? What would you expect to get in exchange?
6. Do you support trading Morneau later – before the next trade deadline?

JustinMorneau is what he is – past his prime, injury-prone, relatively expensive at$14M per year in a contract that expires after 2013. At the same time, he is better than any 1Bavailable in the free agent or trade market.

And thereare at least 6 teams in the market for a 1B: Baltimore, Boston, San Francisco, Seattle,Tampa Bay, and Texas. Of course some ofthose matches work only if the Twins are willing to eat some of that $14Mcontract. And that could be the Twins’secret weapon. After all, one year’ssavings is likely to go to the Pohlads.

On 25-Aug,shortly before the waiver trade deadline the Dodgers traded with the BoSox for1B Adrian Gonzalez when their stated preference was Justin Morneau. In order to get Gonzalez, they had to eat alot of bad contracts and give up Allen Webster and Rubby de la Rosa. Is that a fair trade or an example ofdeadline frenzy?
http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/majors/trade-central/2012/2613953.html

We don’tknow what the Dodgers were offering for Morneau. Given the bad BoSox contracts eaten, I thinkthe Twins could have turned Justin Morneau + Jamey Carroll + 2 month’s salaryinto Webster and de la Rosa and 1 year’s salary savings. Does that seem reasonable? Would you have done that?
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In 2012,in his second year coming back from concussion and other injuries, JustinMorneau appeared to be regaining some semblance of his All-Star form in Julyand August – at the trade deadlines. And then September happened. No one seems todiscuss Justin’s September.
Morneau put up the following monthly splits:
Month AB AVG OBP SLG OPS
Apr 74 0.23 0.313 0.459 0.772
May 53 0.264 0.317 0.642 0.959
June 95 0.232 0.298 0.316 0.614
July 89 0.315 0.365 0.483 0.848
Aug 105 0.314 0.345 0.505 0.850
Sept 89 0.236 0.351 0.315 0.666
Total 505 0.267 0.333 0.440 0.773
wo June 410 0.276 0.349 0.468 0.817

I calculated it without June because I thought there might be a special cause -- his wrist injury, IIRC.

These are Morneau’s splits vs RHP/LHP for 2006-2012.
YEAR vs RHP vs LHP
Overall
2012 0.902 0.569 0.773
2011 0.729 0.400 0.618
2010 1.113 0.966 1.055
2009 0.905 0.836 0.879
2008 0.928 0.777 0.873
2007 0.907 0.694 0.835
2006 0.950 0.904 0.934

These are Morneau’s September splits since 2006.

Year AB AVG OBP SLG OPS
2006 115 0.348 0.402 0.487 0.889
2007 93 0.215 0.324 0.333 0.657
2008 103 0.243 0.298 0.398 0.696
2009 39 0.077 0.178 0.179 0.357
2012 89 0.236 0.351 0.315 0.666
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Comments

  1. Lonestar's Avatar
    OK, I've got to work on proof reading. I just can't paste from Word.

    1.
    Did you support trading Justin Morneau before last season’s trade deadline?

    Yes. Especially if it would have meant getting Allen Webster, Rubby de la Rosa, and one year's salary savings. [And Yes, I play one year's salary savings both ways.]

    2. What do you think Morneau’s slash stats will be in 2013 if he plays half ofhis games at Target Field?

    Based on his 2012 numbers without June: .276/.349/.468/.817

    Phil Mackey thinks .279/.353/.496/.849. I was thinking something like that before last September. That would likely take some bounce back in his vs LHP split.

    Imagine what Morneau's line would be like if he played half of his games in Camden Yard or Rangers BPIA.

    3. What do you think Chris Parmelee’s slash stats will be in 2013 if he plays half of his games at Target Field as a regular?

    .270/.340/.470/.810

    FWIW, Phil Mackey says .260/.338/.432/.770

    4.
    What do you do with Parmelee if Morneau is still a Twin?

    I assign him to Rochester. To me, he's unacceptable in OF. As is Willingham, when I have a perfectly good DH slot for him.

    5.Do you support trading Morneau this off-season? What would you expect to get in exchange?

    Yes. Because he's healthy now. I don't know if he will be healthy at the deadline. I think I would target Baltimore and Tampa Bay, but I don't pretend to be an expert on trade values.

    The Twins have two things Tampa Bay needs desparately. A legitimate 1B available and money so they can afford the 1B. Could they turn Morneau and $11M into Wade Davis, Ryan Roberts, and what?

    The Orioles have a surplus of pitching. They don't necessarily need the money because they are talking about pursuing Josh Hamilton -- how unlike Peter Angelos? Imagine though if they got Morneau for no $ cost -- just Jake Arietta. And maybe Brian Matusz.

    6. Do you support trading Morneau later – before the next trade deadline?

    The only reason for not trading Morneau if he is tradeable (not injured) is if the Twins are in contention. He might be worth a draft compensation pick, but then he would be worth a lot in trade.
    Updated 11-09-2012 at 02:13 PM by Lonestar
  2. beckmt's Avatar
    I am not good at numbers, but both of those numbers posted looked reasonalble to me. September happened because this was the first year in 3 Morneau had played a full season. I do not think his trade value is that high execpt for a sarlary dump trade, take from Baltimore supports that premise. I support trading Parmalee as an addition to an outfieder to optain pitching value in return. Most teams looking to trade pitching are small market and cost adverse.
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