Twins top 10 prospects 2014
by, 02-13-2013 at 12:47 PM (1545 Views)
First we need to decide who will drop off the list after this season. Hicks and Gibson are locks to lose their prospect status. I also think Arcia will play enough games this year for the Twins to no longer be a prospect. So that opens 3 spots on the top 10. I also needed to account for a player or 2 not playing wel and dropping (see Benson, Joe). Speaking of Benson, I also think he is going to spend a large chunk of the season at Target Field an no longer be considered a prospect. So I needed to generate a list of possibles that could make the jump to top 10. Let's look at what I consider the locks for next years top 10. Sano, Buxton, Rosario, Meyer, Kepler, and Berrios. I think Trevor May will pitch very well for New Britain and also make the list. So 3 spots are available and 1 is a lock to goto the #4 pick in the draft in June. I am going to go on record right now and say that I want Sean Manaea to be the pick.
The Twins have done a nice job of adding to the pitching prospect with last years draft and the 2 trades this winter. When you look at Meyer, May, Berrios and even some of the guys who aren't as high like Summers, Hermsen, Hauser, Salcedo, Boyd and Bard they all have one thing in common, they are right handed. In the system we have one southpaw that might get a chance to start and it is Melotakis. Most people would agree that he is almost assuredly going to wind up in the bullpen. Adding a top lefty like Manaea to the list really starts to round it out.
So now we have 2 spots left. I wanted to pair the list down to 4 or 5 guys that could do it. I am looking at guys who were just out of the top 10 this year or had the talent and ability to make a big jump. Position players that I came up with were, Nate Roberts, Jorge Polanco, Adam Walker, Kennys Vargas, Daniel Santana, Travis Harrison and Niko Goodrum. Pitchers it was Luke Bard, Hudson Boyd, Adrian Salcedo and Mason Melotakis. That is 11 that I came up with. The first thing that strikes me is how much deeper the Twins minor league system has gotten the last 2 years. Niko Goodrum has more upside than guys who were top 5 prospects in years past and may struggle to make the top 20 next year. I then pared that list down to 5 and nione of the pitchers made it. 3 of the 4, Bard, Melotakis and Boyd , are probably going to end up in the pen which drives their prospect value down. If it was 2 years ago, Salcedo probably makes this list, but he has been hurt and ineffective and is still not pitched above high A. Out of the position players I dropped Walker and Vargas. I really like the power potential that both show but the large strikeout totals scared me off. Also Vargas just hasn't played enough and has been old for his league.
That leaves us with Nate Stache, Polanco, Santana, Harrison and Goodrum. This was really hard because I really like all 5. In the end I went with Polanco and Harrison. Polanco put up even better stats than Goodrum and he is 17 months younger. Santana has OBP issues that concern me as he moves up. I love Stache and I hope the Twins put him at New Britain to start this year and he tears up the Eastern League they way he did the Arizone Fall.
We now have the top 10 and I need to put them in order.
10. Travis Harrison 300/375/475. Cedar Rapids
He didn't hit with as much power as I thought he would but the tools are there. I doubt he can stay at 3rd but the bat will play. I think he will go to Cedar Rapids and rake while showing a bit more power. He will continue to play 3B and will still pile up plenty of errors.
9. Jorge Polanco 310/370/450 Cedar Rapids
Jorge busted out huge last year and won't turn 20 until halfway they this season. He doesn't get talked about nearly as much as some other guys but I think this is the year that more people start to take notice. He came up as SS so playing a good 2B should be no problem.
8. Trevor May. 160 IP 165 SO 57 BB 158 hits New Britain
May will start the season in NB but will be promoted to Rochester by the all star break and will get a a few starts for the Twins inSeptember. He will be in the Twins rotation at the start of 2014.
7. JO Berrios. 125 IP 135 SO 38 BB 105 hits. Cedar Rapids
Berrios has an electric arm and could easily make it to Fort Myers this year. But I think the Twins will leave him in extended spring training for a little while to reduce his innings and and not have him pitch in the cold spring up north. In past years, Berrrios is probably the top pitching prospect in the system, now he's third.
6. Max Kepler 300/400/525. Cedar Rapids
Like Keith Law, I love this kid. I think he is going to be a star. He will have a huge year , bat .300, 20 plus homers, more walks than strikeouts. The year Kepler is going have would have him as the #1 prospect for several other teams but is our #6.
5. Eddie Rosario. 320/350/490 Fort Myers
Eddie is having a huge winter and Peter Gammons just called him one of the most impressive prospects in the Puerto Rican winter league. Rosario will continue to improve at 2B. He has too much athletic ability to not do well there. He will join Sano at New Britain before the season is over.
4. Alex Meyer 140 IP 147 SO 54 BB 128 hits New Britain
Meet another member of the 2014 rotation. Meyer will start the year in NB and like May will get a start at Targer Field in September.
3. Sean Manaea 60 IP 85 SO 17 BB 42 hits Fort Meyers
Left handed and can bring it. This guy will fit perfectly between Meyer and Gibson in the 2015 rotation. He dominated the Cape Cod league last year and my biggest worry is that he will be too good this year and be gone by the time we pick.
2. Byron Buxton 285/345/450
By the way how much fun is it going to be watching Cedar Rapids play this year. An infield with Harrison, Goodrum, and Polanco then Kepler and Buxton in the OF. Buxton will start to show all that talent this year by playing spectacular CF and showing off some power.
1. Miguel Sano 275/380/545
Sano is going to crush the Florida state league and will be in NB by the all star break. Think Arcia type stats with worse average but more power.
So that is my top 10 for this time next year. The Twins will have a rotation of Meyer, Gibson, May, Hendricks and someone, please not Correa. Arcia and Hicks will be entering their first full season. Sano and Rosario will be a few months from making their debuts. Manaea and Berrios will be a year from joining Meyer and Gibson. The bullpen will be stacked with guys that throw mid 90's from both sides like Bard, Zach Jones, Chargois, Corey Williams and Melotakis.