Minnesota Twins News & Rumors Forum
View RSS Feed

SethSpeaks.net

Seth's 2013 Twins Hitting Projections

Rate this Entry
Since completing the Minnesota Twins Prospect Handbook a month ago, I have managed to find a little extra time in my life. So, what did I do? I am so cool that I started making my Minnesota Twins Roster Projections (which can be found here and here). Today, another piece to that fun, preseason puzzle is presented for you today. It is my attempt to predict how the Twins hitters will fare in 2013.

I'm sure you've reviewed several such projections, such as Bill James and PECOTA and others. However, those are all just done with a computer and with stats and all those things that seem to make a lot of sense based on several factors like the players' history, age and more.

My projections are fairly similar, in nature, yet likely different in results. I admit that I used my computer and I looked at players' stats from previous seasons. I considered the players' ages and career trajectories. I also made some assumptions based on intangibles, either previously chronicled or developed on my own. In other words, I look at the numbers and then use my gut to determine what the player will do in 2013.

Click image for larger version. 

Name:	Joe Mauer.jpg 
Views:	301 
Size:	36.8 KB 
ID:	3287



You're certainly free to disagree with them, if you like. Frankly, I just enjoy doing it because it helps me get ready for the upcoming season. I'm not going to claim that my projections are in any way better than the others you've read (even those other ones will be pretty close on some and not even a little close on others), but I am certainly willing to stand behind them. And, hopefully someone will remind me at the end of the season to look at them and see how close I was.

I encourage all of you to do something similar and/or post your projections for the players below as well. Obviously we can't predict injury or trades and easier than we can predict who will break out and who will bust. But again, these are solely my projections for the 2012 seasons for the Twins hitters. It is not meant to be used in your fantasy league drafts or anything. If you do so, do so at your own risk.

Please note that I projected player by player, and at the end, I compared my projected 2013 numbers to the actual 2012 numbers to see if I was completely off. I do show some small improvement by the offense overall. Note also that I have about 250 more plate appearances to reach those 2012 numbers, but I would say those are for other players who come up for brief stints, or to account for the unexpected.

With that, I'm going to split the projections into two charts, in hopes that it will fit better onto your screen.

Enjoy!

G PA AB BA OBP SLG OPS
C Joe Mauer 143 626 532 0.325 0.406 0.483 0.889
C Ryan Doumit 127 505 470 0.257 0.305 0.430 0.735
C Drew Butera 31 91 84 0.202 0.231 0.286 0.516
C Chris Herrmann 43 123 108 0.259 0.325 0.361 0.686
1B Justin Morneau 142 607 521 0.292 0.381 0.536 0.916
2B Brian Dozier 113 458 412 0.267 0.330 0.391 0.720
3B Trevor Plouffe 154 598 536 0.252 0.311 0.451 0.763
SS Pedro Florimon 62 179 164 0.189 0.218 0.262 0.480
UIF Jamey Carroll 129 335 281 0.274 0.343 0.342 0.685
UIF Eduardo Escobar 108 237 212 0.259 0.312 0.349 0.661
LF Josh Willingham 151 626 534 0.253 0.355 0.489 0.843
CF Aaron Hicks 91 397 336 0.265 0.348 0.399 0.746
RF Chris Parmelee 119 433 382 0.259 0.335 0.440 0.775
OF Darin Mastroianni 115 387 337 0.246 0.313 0.335 0.648
OF Oswaldo Arcia 33 128 115 0.322 0.367 0.487 0.854
OF Joe Benson 67 210 184 0.250 0.305 0.375 0.680
2013 Predictions 162 5940 5208 0.267 0.337 0.426 0.763
2012 Totals 162 6209 5562 0.260 0.325 0.390 0.715

Here are more of the projected counting numbers:

R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB BB SO
C Joe Mauer 78 173 38 2 14 78 3 81 92
C Ryan Doumit 49 121 31 1 16 63 0 33 92
C Drew Butera 5 17 4 0 1 7 0 4 19
C Chris Herrmann 12 28 6 1 1 13 1 12 18
1B Justin Morneau 77 152 32 1 31 86 0 79 99
2B Brian Dozier 49 110 27 3 6 41 13 41 52
3B Trevor Plouffe 78 135 30 1 25 68 1 51 121
SS Pedro Florimon 20 31 7 1 1 13 3 8 47
UIF Jamey Carroll 41 77 14 1 1 25 7 38 43
UIF Eduardo Escobar 18 55 11 1 2 23 3 19 38
LF Josh Willingham 71 135 27 0 33 104 1 87 141
CF Aaron Hicks 64 89 14 5 7 33 13 49 75
RF Chris Parmelee 42 99 20 2 15 41 1 46 88
OF Darin Mastroianni 44 83 12 3 4 31 29 38 94
OF Oswaldo Arcia 16 37 7 0 4 21 0 10 25
OF Joe Benson 24 46 8 3 3 22 8 18 51
2013 Predictions 688 1388 288 25 164 669 83 614 1095
2012 Totals 701 1448 270 30 131 667 135 505 1069

That's a lot of numbers to digest, so take your time... Are there some you agree with? Others that you disagree with? Which are the most egregious? And again, be sure to post your projections for some of all of the players as well!
Tags: None Add / Edit Tags
Categories
Uncategorized
©2014 TwinsCentric, LLC. All Rights Reserved.
Interested in advertising with Twins Daily? Click here.