And we'll see ya
by, 03-13-2012 at 11:53 PM (330 Views)
I am looking ahead a little bit, but if you look at the Twins schedule early in the year, look out! The begin the season in Baltimore, that is fine, but then look what the schedule holds for us in order: Home, Angels (3) Home, Rangers (3) Away, Yankees (4) Away, Rays (3) Home, Red Sox (3) Home, Royals (3) Away, Angels (3) Away, Mariners (3) Home, Angels (3) Home, Blue Jays (4) That is very ugly, if you look realistically at that beginning I am seeing a start for the Twins record after the first 35 games is maybe 14-21. I don't have all the data right now, I am guessing that has to be one of the toughest schedules in the league for the first 35 games.
I am really going to be curious to see this year is the overall records of the AL East, with Toronto, Rays, Red Sox, and Yankees beating up on each other it is going to be tough for anybody to really get to 95 wins, which makes an interesting fight for that second wild card spot, which is most likely going to come out of the AL West, whether it be the Angels or Rangers. I actually really like the expansion of the playoff system. Teams like the 2010 Yankees were able to tank the last part of the year to hand pick their playoff opponent, it didn't matter if they were wild card or division winners.
I like to make wagers and I wanted to post a couple of my wagers this year in baseball. I said earlier I took the Twins over 73.5 for reasons I put out in my last post, I also took the Astros at under 63.5 based on this lineup:
Jordan Schafer (played 132 games in the MLB) projected -.4 WARP
Jose Altuve (played 57 games in the MLB) projected .7 WARP
J.D. Martinez (played 53 games in the MLB) projected 1.2 WARP
Carlos Lee projected 2.1 WARP
Brian Bogusevic (played 106 games in the MLB) projected .4 WARP
Jed Lowrie (played 256 games in MLB) projected 1.3 WARP
Jimmy Paredes (played 46 games in MLB) projected -1.0 WARP
Chris Snyder projected .8 WARP
I have heard of 3 of those players in the lineup and Wandy Rodriguez is the only good starter on the rotation.
This team is going to be playing the Reds, Brewers, and Cardinals, which are all very good teams this year. This team was 26th or worse in the league in almost every category that has a big time stat on, Runs per Game, Runs Againster per Game, Score differential per game, They are down two of the 3 best VORP players. How is this team going to win more games than they won last year. They won 56 games last year, I can't see them being better?
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Arizona u 86.5
Miami Marlins over 85.5 (yes I am jumping on this wagon) even though they are going to have the Phillies and Braves in this division, the NL is weak this year, I am not sold on the Giants, Diamondbacks, Brewers, Cardinals. So it will be a tough division, other than that I think they will win maybe 90 games even.
Detroit u 92 They need help on the left side defensively, this one is very close, Verlander is great, the lineup is very good, defensively could be a huge weakness
New York Mets o 73.5 this is close as well, hopefully Johan is healthy
Phillies u 93.5 I think this is there last year to win a world series, health and age is a concern now
Cleveland o 78.5 I wasn't sold on Cleveland at all last year, I won a nice prop bet last year saying they wouldn't make the playoffs after their hot start, this year if they are healthy will be around .500
Toronto u 80.5 Bautista really fell, I think pitchers figured out how to pitch to him, if he had as signal caller it is gone now, they play in the East.
Dodgers u 81.5 mediocre team at best after Kershaw and Kemp, don't think they will be .500
Padres o 73.5 poor division the pitching staff although young could be decent in that division, I like where this team is going
Royals u 79.5 What??? I have been wrong with the Royals the last 2 years, I thought they would be better, I couldn't believe I saw 79.5 for the Royals this year, and the Twins at 73.5, Royals 6 games better than a healthy Twins team. Yes last year they were 8 games better from a depleted Twins program
Angels u 92.5 I think that early line is a Pujols line and that will go down, I think the under on that is a good bet.
I love posting these, then looking at this in October. Should be fun following these lines. Last year I ended up betting 7 teams and was 4-3, which isn't good, but fun