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Trading Away: The Position Players

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This is the time when people often make some wild trade speculations. I try not to do that here, but to propose who could be traded and what is realistic to get in return. The Twins can do very well here if they are willing to be sellers.

The Twins are going to have to make some key decisions about who to keep and what they can get for 2014 and beyond. In what follows, I lay out some moves that could be made for the short and long term as the Twins try to figure out 2014 and the future. I am starting with top position players first as these guys should be first on the trading block.

The big four are:

--Josh Willingham (rationale: Arcia)
--Justin Morneau (rationale: stop gaps in Colabello and Parmelee, could be re-signed anyway)
--Trevor Plouffe (rationale: don't want to part ways, but Sano sticking at third or another stop gap player to fill in here makes Plouffe a good asset to trade)
--Ryan Doumit (rationale: Herrmann and Pinto)

Relevant playoff contenders with low OPS at these positions:

--3B: New York Yankees (.615), Pittsburgh Pirates (.638)
--1B: New York Yankees (.696), Tampa Bay Rays (.800, but falling rapidly)
--C: Cincinnati Reds (.617), Baltimore Orioles (.634), New York Yankees (.640)
--LF: New York Yankees (.660)
--DH: Tampa Bay Rays (.682), Baltimore Orioles (.700), New York Yankees (.709).

As is clear, the New York Yankees have some holes all over as they deal with a number of injuries and some quickly fading stop-gap players. The Orioles and Rays also appear twice. Finally, two National teams make the list, but I am going to remove the Reds from consideration of Ryan Doumit, because Doumit's value seems to come from his ability to catch and fill in as the designated hitter.

Some potential pairings would include:

Willingham-Yankees
Plouffe-Pirates, Yankees
Doumit-Orioles, Yankees
Morneau-Rays, Orioles, Yankees

I realize that "top prospects" as in top 100 or even 200 overall are going to be off limits in exchange for these guys. But, being someone who analyzes the Twins system and has a "Top 60" list on a regular basis, I find a lot of value in players on individual team lists ranging from 11-30 quite often, especially given the volatility of such lists and the volatility of the grades that even Sickels places on players. So, here are five guys from each of the four teams above who are not on many team top ten lists and often fall between 12 and 20 or lower on such lists.

For comparison's sake, in the Twins system this would mean players like Danny Santana, Tyler Duffey, Matt Hauser, Nate Roberts, Niko Goodrum, Danny Ortiz and the like. And several of those players have been on the rise from lower parts of the list over the past few years.

New York Yankees:

Nik Turley, LHP, starter, 23 (AA/AAA this year)
2013 AA: 4.90 ERA, 64.1 innings, 71/33 K/BB (AAA: 1.50, 1, 6.0, 4/3)

Twins system: likely headed to New Britain


Bryan Mitchell, LHP, starter, 22 (A+)
2013 A+: 4.74, 76.0, 62/34

Twins system: likely headed to Fort Myers


Dan Camarena, LHP, starter, 20 (A)
2013 A: 6.34, 49.2, 36/13

Twins system: likely headed to Cedar Rapids


Jose Ramirez, RHP, starter, 23 (AA/AAA)
2013 AA: 2.76, 42.1 50/15 (AAA: 4.50, 4.0 5/4)

Twins system: likely headed to Rochester


Nick Goody, RHP, reliever, 21 (A+)
2013 A+: 3.00, 3.0 3/2. 2012 A: 1.09, 24.2, 40/7)

Twins system: likely headed to Fort Myers


Baltimore Orioles:

Tim Berry, LHP, starter, 22 (A+)
2013 A+: 4.54, 69.1, 66/17

Twins system: likely headed to Fort Myers


Zach Davies, RHP, starter, 20 (A+)
2013 A+: 3.63, 74.1, 58/19

Twins system: likely headed to Fort Myers.


Devin Jones, RHP, starter, 22 (AA)
2013 AA: 4.84, 67.0, 58/20

Twins system: likely headed to Fort Myers


Josh Hader, LHP, starter, 19 (A)
2013 A: 1.94, 60.1, 56/30

Twins system: likely head to Cedar Rapids.


Torsten Boss, LH, 3B, 22 (A)
2013 A: 221, .251/.333/.405 (.738), 11/2/5, 23/49, 2-3

Twins system: likely headed to Cedar Rapids.


Tampa Bay Rays:

Tyler Goeddel, RH, 3B/SS, 20 (A)
2013 A: 239, .252/.345/.398 (.743), 6/6/4, 28/41, 13-17

Twins system: likely head to Cedar Rapids


Brandon Martin, RH, SS, 19 (A)
2013 A: 50, .244/.280/.422 (.702), 2/0/2, 2/10, 0-1

Twins system: likely headed to Cedar Rapids


Felipe Rivero, LH, starter, 21, (A+)
2013 A+: 3.28, 61.1, 53/24

Twins system: likely headed to Fort Myers


Jeff Ames, RHP, starter, 22 (A)
2013 A: 2.47, 58.1 42/10

Twins system: likely headed to Fort Myers


Jake Hager, SS, 20 (A+)
2013 A+: 242, .290/.344/.353, 10/2/0, 18/36, 9-16

Twins system: likely headed to Fort Myers.


Pittsburgh Pirates:

Vic Black, RHP, reliever, 25 (AAA)
2013 AAA: 2.62, 24.0, 33/11

Twins system: likely headed to Rochester


Nick Kingham, RHP, starter, 21 (A+/AA)

2013 A+: 3.09, 70, 75/14

Twins system: likely headed to New Britain


Adrian Sampson, RHP, starter, 21 (A+)
2013 A+: 5.56, 66.1, 37/12 (2012 numbers in A ball included a 9.3/9 K rate)

Twins system: likely headed to Fort Myers


Max Moroff, SH, SS, 20 (A)
2013 A: 248, .228/.350/.351 (.701), 9/1/5, 39/40, 4-9

Twins system: likely headed to Cedar Rapids


Alex Dickerson, LH, 1B/RF, 23 (AA)
2013 AA: 216, .238/.285/.417 (.702) 17/2/5, 13/51, 3-5

Twins system: likely headed to New Britain


There are 20 players of varying worth and perfomance, but I think the Twins should mostly focus on pitching. Would I trade all four? Likely, yes. The return that would be nice is a couple of starting pitchers, one reliever, and one infielder.

Regardless, I think this casts some reality over the trade outlook for these players. That reality is not bleak by any means.
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Comments

  1. howieramone's Avatar
    A lot of left-handed starters available. I would be surprised if we traded for anything except starting pitching, but makes sense to me. I think this is Terry Ryan's preferred way of doing business. Good job.
    Updated 06-20-2013 at 01:34 AM by howieramone
  2. Brandon's Avatar
    I don't think Plouffe will be available till next season. There's no rush to trade him or Doumit. Our leverage in a trade of these guys is we don't have to move them. Sano isn't ready to be called up and neither is Pinto. Morneau is a toss up. I still do not think they will trade him, in fact I bet he resigns to a 1 year 14 million (or whatever the qualifying offer is next season) This prediction is also most likely to be wrong too as they could let Morneau go and move Plouffe to 1B next season and bring up Sano. Willingham could be traded this year. but I doubt anyone gets moved unless we get an overpay or a top 5-10 prospect. We don't need to reduce payroll and we don't have too many immediate replacements outside of Arcia that is ready right now.
  3. Dman's Avatar
    Very nice article and I agree that those players do not likely fit well into the teams long term plans and we need spots available to find out what we have for talent behind them. I also agree with Brandon though in that the Twins are in a position to be patient and try and to drive up the value of the players you mention. If that doesn't work out over time then I guess you desperately try to find a trading partner or let the player go. It's a tough job being a GM and coming out on top all the time.
  4. Boone's Avatar
    Great article, very in-depth. Are you planning on doing this for pitchers? I would be interested in reading that. First and foremost, let's hope some of these guys get hot for the next month and increase their value.
    I think that the Twins should do anything and everything to get legitimate prospects in return. For this reason, I have no problem with the Twins paying a hefty portion of Morneau's salary in order to increase his value.
    What about packaging players? I know it doesn't happen much, but some of these teams have multiple needs we can fill. This includes the Pirates, Garrett Jones has struggled at 1B and Travis Snider has been dreadful. Willlingham to the Pirates could be an option if Marte can move to RF. Kingham's numbers look pretty good to me. He could be a steal.
  5. DAM DC Twins Fans's Avatar
    I think you overvalue the Twins players...I doubt we could get these level prospects for Morneau, Doumit, Plouffe, Willingham, etc. It reminds me of the Capps/Ramos deal--most GMs are smarter than Billy Smith and would want more than one of the 4 Twins for a top 200 prospect...
  6. stringer bell's Avatar
    Good article. Obviously, not all of the tradable players will be moved. I do hope the Twins realize that their chances of contending are still remote. They are getting as many wins as they could hope for, but the pitching staff isn't good enough and they have holes in their everyday lineup.
  7. Shane Wahl's Avatar
    Yes, I am going to do this for pitchers, though I really only see Burton and Duensing as viable trade-bait. Given that there are no great or good starters to be dealt this year league-wide, MAYBE I will include Correia.

    DAM DC Twins Fans: well, I could go lower on these lists, if possible. The problem is that there seems to be basically zero Seth Stohs-esque writers for most teams. Prospect lists MIGHT go to 30, but I have had a hard time digging there. Anyway, given that Liriano was traded for TWO of this level type player, I don't think it is that crazy to make a claim for legitimate trade value here. These guys are NOT top prospects in the strictest sense of the term and teams are going to be willing to add major leaguers to fill holes. Plouffe to the Pirates, for instance, makes a bunch of sense. They need some more pop. Etc. etc.
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