View RSS Feed

jorgenswest

Trade Talk: Correia and Pelfrey

Rate this Entry
The Twins signed to veteran back of the rotation starters last winter. Is it possible they might flip them in a midseason trade?

Kevin Correia whose best skill might be his reliable health has performed at an ERA+ of 99 (essentially league average) this year. Mike Pelfrey is coming off injury and started poorly. He needs to put up a string of good starts in order to show that he is healthy. Neither player has a contract that is going to scare off a team.

Earlier I look at previous LOOGY trades: Trade Talk: Brian Duensing

Why trade them?
Correia is 32 and signed through next year. His numbers are probably better than his true ability at this point. He may never have more value as a Twin. Pelfrey is not signed for next year and will be a free agent.

Why keep them?
The Twins have had a hard time keeping pitchers healthy. Correia seems to have the ability to stay healthy and take the ball every 5 days. We probably haven’t seen the best of Pelfrey. It takes time to recover from TJ surgery. He may take a step the second half and be willing to sign a team friendly deal with the Twins. Pelfrey is 29.

Which teams might fit?
The Red Sox, Royals, Rangers, Indians, Blue Jays. Correia has performed better than most 5th starters.

What is the value of a back end starter at the trade deadline?
I looked for trades the last three summers for starter that would not be considered front line pitchers. Most are probably better than Correia and certainly Pelfrey.

Jake Westbrook for Corey Kluber, 24, AA, SP at the time of the trade (Sickels C+)

Erik Bedard and Josh Fields for Trayvon Robinson,23, AAA, LF and Chih-Hsien Chiang, 23 AA, RF – Robinson was a #9 and #10 Dodger prospect (Sickels B). Chiang played in a futures game. (Sickels C+)

Jason Marquis for Zach Walters, 21 , Low A, SS (Sickels C+)

Francisco Liriano for Pedro Hernandez and Eduardo Escobar (Sickels C prospects)

Brett Myers for Matt Heidenreich, 21, A+, SP and Blair Walters, 22, LowA, SP – Sickels had Walters between Escobar and Hernandez as a C prospect. Heidenreich did not make the list.

Jeremy Guthrie for Jonathan Sanchez – Two struggling starters with ERAs over 6 at the time of the trade.

Aside from the Bedard trade who may not be a good comp, it looks like the Twins can hope for a C+ prospect or two C prospects in return for Correia and possibly Pelfrey.

Best Terry Ryan back end starter trades
Kevin Tapani was not having a good year when traded to the Dodgers with Mark Guthrie for Ron Coomer, Jose Parra, Chris Latham and Greg Hansell.

On the receiving end, he traded Matt Lawton for Rick Reed

Brad Swanson has a write up on the Scott Erickson trade

How will the Twins replace Correia or Pelfrey?
They have Vance Worley, Liam Hendriks, Pedro Hernandez, Andrew Albers and PJ Walters in Rochester. Trevor May or Alex Meyer may be ready midseason next year. Worley and Hendriks are still young enough to turn it around. Albers may shine given an opportunity.

Bottom Line
The Twins are not going to get a top prospect for Correia. If they have confidence in the young players offered in return, it might be a worthwhile deal. They don’t need to dump him. With the turmoil of the rotation the last 3 years it might be valuable to keep a player with Correia’s track record of health.

Updated 07-10-2013 at 04:03 PM by jorgenswest

Tags: None Add / Edit Tags
Categories
Uncategorized

Comments

  1. howieramone's Avatar
    Good job! I would keep him after reading your article.
  2. Brad Swanson's Avatar
    These articles are really great. I appreciate the level of research that is included. I would agree that keeping Correia is probably the way to go, considering the return he would likely demand.
  3. jorgenswest's Avatar
    An argument I should have added, they can trade Correia for the C+ prospect and seek a replacement in free agency. It really is on the shoulders of the scouting department to find that prospect that most others value as C+ but they believe is better.
  4. beckmt's Avatar
    Agreed, I would trade Correia for the right prospect. Twins need all the pitching prospects they can get. They also have plenty of AAA options, who might be cheaper and slightly worse than Correia.
  5. johnnydakota's Avatar
    Other trade talks , former Twin Cuddyer may be heading to Pittsburg for Taillon.
    a nice coupe for the Rockies
  6. jorgenswest's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by beckmt
    Agreed, I would trade Correia for the right prospect. Twins need all the pitching prospects they can get. They also have plenty of AAA options, who might be cheaper and slightly worse than Correia.
    I don't think they will get anyone that will look like the right prospect. They will have to find a useful player amidst uninspiring minor league performance like a Ryan Pressly.
  7. johnnydakota's Avatar
    [QUOTE=beckmt;bt8232]Agreed, I would trade Correia for the right prospect. Twins need all the pitching prospects they can get. They also have plenty of AAA options, who might be cheaper and slightly worse than Correia.[/QUOTE]

    That fits in perfectly with Terrys way of doing business.
©2014 TwinsCentric, LLC. All Rights Reserved.
Interested in advertising with Twins Daily? Click here.