Foresight Folly or Fact?
by, 09-19-2013 at 02:20 PM (585 Views)
After sitting on a limb for more than eight months, it's time to see whether my "Cold Predictions" came true or not. Where will I land if my limb breaks? Into the bottomless chasm of MLB prospect shame, of course.
This list I created last winter (January 12, 2013) was intended to be a prediction of what MLB.com's (J.Mayo, et al.) top-prospect list for the Minnesota Twins would look like following the 2013 season. For comparison purposes, I will list them here:
Remember: MLB.com had the luxury of letting the entire 2013 season play out before producing their top-prospect list.
My "Cold Prediction" MLB.com Actual List 1. Byron Buxton 1. Byron Buxton 2. Alex Meyer 2. Miguel Sano 3. Eddie Rosario 3. Alex Meyer 4. Miguel Sano 4. Kohl Stewart 5. Tevor May 5. Eddie Rosario 6. Jose Berrios 6. Jose Berrios 7. Max Kepler 7. Trevor May 8. Corey Williams 8. Max Kepler 9. Jorge Polanco 9. Jorge Polanco 10. Travis Harrison 10. Ryan Eades
Top-spot: Byron Buxton all the way. Byron went "bananas" at Cedar Rapids. Then he was named "Top-prospect of the World." Nobody is saying that Sano is the "obvious choice" for the top-spot now. Watch out for the speeding corvette heading to Minnesota (it's just Byron).
2-spot: I gave Alex Meyer the nod last January, but it's obvious that Sano is the #2 guy not already in Minnesota. Heck, Sano is probably a better offensive force than anyone on the Twins roster right now. Sano is a monstrous animal, not a corvette like Buxton. Just let him out of his cage...whenever.
3-spot: I put Rosario, MLB.com put Meyer. Meyer was really quite successful this year, and we get a bonus look at him in the Arizona Fall League. Bonus! Meyer should be ready for the bigs' at this point (age). I expect to see him break spring camp with the MLB club. I said this last January: "With the Twins needing to find someone better than Vance Worley to lead their MLB rotation, Meyer is gonna smell blood in the waters of the Eastern League." I would have rather watched Meyer start on opening day, than Vance.
4-spot: I had Sano in this spot due to his low batting average and high K-rate in Beloit during the 2012 season. But I was wrong! The scouts predicted he will hit for average as he moves up and they were right! MLB.com has Kohl Stewart in the 4-spot, and I agree with them. Kohl looks like something special.
5-spot: I kept May at #5, but Rosario is right for this spot. Eddie might be in Minnesota's outfield next year. I cannot wait to see some new blood in the Twins outfield. I predicted this concerning Rosario in 2013: "I am simply predicting that Rosario will outshine Sano at the same level." Take a look at both players' numbers in AA this year...there's some truth to that prediction.
6-spot: We both put Berrios. Good prediction, and a good ranking for the young RHP. Maybe he will take a step up in his production at Ft. Myers next year. Although, he produced quite well and was brilliant at times in Cedar Rapids.
7-spot: I predicted Kepler would rise to the 7-spot. But, he was hurt for the first part of the season, and never took off the way he did as a 19-yr-old in Elizabethton. Trevor May is the current 7-spot holder, and he could very well break camp with the MLB club next spring. (considering they have "squat" for starting pitchers)
8-spot: Corey Williams?? Really? Yes, I had Williams as a fast mover to the bigs'. But, I was wrong. Corey has fizzled a bit since being promoted to A+. He could make the bigs' someday, but he is not a top-10 prospect in this organization. MLB.com currently has Max Kepler in the 8-spot. So, my prediction for Kepler wasn't too far off (for Corey it was way off).
9-spot: Ding! Ding! Ding! I win! Jorge is my #9 and MLB.com agrees! Gotta give some love to Jorge Polanco for what he did to earn this top-10 spot. I also wrote a gushing article about him in my blog. Check it out here. Remember, Jorge was not listed in the top-20 following the 2012 season on MLB.com.
10-spot: I had Travis Harrison listed here, but MLB.com has him at #11. So, not bad. 2013 2nd-round-pick Ryan Eades holds the #10 spot on MLB.com. We will see if that was a solid ranking or not. It doesn't make much sense when you have guys like Zach Jones, Michael Tonkin, A.J. Achter, Josmil Pinto, Kennys Vargas, Daniel Santana, Adam Walker, etc., etc., tearing up their respective leagues. Eades' top-10 ranking is based on reputation, not production.
So, there you have it. I give myself a B+, since that sounds moderately successful to me. Feel free to leave your evaluation/opinion below.
I visited the "MLB Prospect: Bottomless Chasm of Shame" this summer.
My advice..... Just Jump!