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Thrylos

Naming names: The three starting pitchers the Twins should sign in free agency

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Originally posted at The Tenth Inning Stretch
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It is not a secret, that the biggest problem the Minnesota Twins had in the past few woeful season, as far as players are concerned, is the lack of a reliable rotation. While a lot of fans are looking at 2015 or 2016 as the potential contenting point for the Twins, when Miguel Sano and Byron Buxton "come to age", the dirty secret is that there are not (other than Alex Meyer and potentially Kyle Gibson above A level) any sure bets for top of the rotation pitchers in the system, which, almost certainly would guarantee mediocrity at best for the middle of this decade.

This off-season the Twins have an opportunity to remediate this via free agency and, in addition to 2015 and beyond, be competitive in 2014. In order to do so, the Twins would need to sign at least 3 pitchers better than Kevin Correia who can be a place holder for Alex Meyer, in his last contract year and with Kyle Gibson would be the 2 remaining parts of the Twins' rotation in 2014. Who should those three new pitchers be? What would it take to sign them? Remember, we are not looking only for 2014, but we are looking beyond. And we are looking for numbers one, two and three in the Twins' rotation, allowing Gibson to be number four and Correia number five, which would result in a competitive rotation. Potentially one of these positions could come internally: Alex Meyer might be one out of Spring Training; I have not given up on Vance Worley because of an awful injury, out-of-shapeness and bad luck (BABIP) induced, age 25 season; and nobody knows whether Samuel Deduno might take the next step.

What characteristics those free agents should have?

If you look at the measurable characteristics the top pitchers have, two jump out right away, and these 2 happen to be the exact ones the Twins' rotation has been lacking:

a. Hard throwing. Average Fastball velocity in MLB is 92 mph, including relievers
b. Missing bats. Average K/9 is around 7 in the majors, so we are looking for top of the rotation players with K/9 above 8.

Only 3 Minnesota Twins starting pitchers, both left-handed, since PitchF/X was introduced allowing the measurement of pitch velocities, satisfied that criteria: Johan Santana (2004, 2005, 2006) and Fransisco Liriano (2005, 2006, 2010).


And because of the long-term vision (we are looking for players who can get 3+1 or 4+1 contacts and would be with the team for the biggest part of the decade when Sano and Buxton come to age) the Twins need to look at pitchers who would at mostly be 31 years old in 2014, so they do not pay for a pitcher's declining seasons. One can argue that an older pitcher can be signed in an one or two year contract as a place holder for someone like Kohl Steward, which is a valid argument, but at this point it does not guarantee competitiveness, since Kohl Steward is not a sure bet now.

Here are the 3 criteria (all measurable) the Twins should look for in a free agent:

a. Average FB velocity >= 92 mph
b. K/9 >= 8
c. Age in 2014 season =< 31

Here is a list of all 2014 free agent starting pitchers, from MLB trade rumors, alphabetically and with 2014 season ages in parenthesis:

Alfredo Aceves (31)
Bronson Arroyo (37)
Scott Baker (32)
Erik Bedard (35)
Travis Blackley (31)
A.J. Burnett (37)
Chris Capuano (35)
Chris Carpenter (39)
Bruce Chen (37)
Bartolo Colon (41)
Scott Feldman (30)
Gavin Floyd (31)
Jeff Francis (33)
Freddy Garcia (37)
Jon Garland (34)
Matt Garza (30)
Chad Gaudin (31)
Roy Halladay (37)
Jason Hammel (31)
Aaron Harang (36)
Dan Haren (33)
Roberto Hernandez (33)
Tim Hudson (38)
Phil Hughes (28)
Ubaldo Jimenez (30)
Josh Johnson (30)
Jair Jurrjens (28)
Jeff Karstens (31)
Scott Kazmir (30)
Hiroki Kuroda (39)
John Lannan (29)
Wade LeBlanc (29)
Jon Lester (30)
Colby Lewis (34)
Ted Lilly (38)
Paul Maholm (32)
Shaun Marcum (32)
Jason Marquis (35)
Daisuke Matsuzaka (33)
James McDonald (29)
Randy Messenger (32)
Ricky Nolasco (31)
Sean O'Sullivan (26)
Roy Oswalt (35)
Mike Pelfrey (30)
Greg Reynolds (28)
Clayton Richard (30)
Ervin Santana (31)
Johan Santana (34)
Joe Saunders (33)
Kevin Slowey (30)
Masahiro Tanaka (25)
Jason Vargas (31)
Ryan Vogelsong (36)

Trimming the list by age, and listing K/9 and average FB velocity for both 2012 and 2013, disqualifying pitchers who (because we are looking mostly for "sure bets". Reclamation projects and bargains could fit for one of these positions, but are out of scope for this exercise.) :

a. pitched less than 50 innings due to injury in 2013
b. pitched mostly in the pen in 2013
c. pitched mostly in minor or foreign leagues in 2013

we have this list (with K/9 and FB velocity fitting the criteria indicated in green, if fit complete or in yellow if fit when rounded up to no decimals) :



The "A" list (at least two pitchers should be from this list) :

Matt Garza, RHP, 30. Difficult to see a Garza reunion with Ron Gardenhire and Rick Anderson still on the Twins' staff. Documented personality conflicts when with the Twins

Ubaldo Jimenez, RHP, 30. Received a qualifying offer, which means the Twins will have to surrender their second round pick to sign him. Price will be high because of monster second half.

Josh Johnson, RHP, 30. No qualifying offers. Health and performance consideration (if one looks at W-L and ERA; but solid xFIP and peripherals) will drop the price

Scott Kazmir, LHP, 30. The only lefty in the list. No qualifying offer. Great year suggests that recovered from injury nicely

Edinson Volquez, RHP, 30 . No qualifying offer. Very quietly made it to the list. A sleeper, potentially low cost signing


The "B" list (potentially one pitcher should be from this list, but there are questions) :

Phil Hughes (28) He is intriguing; close with the K/9. Still in early prime. Can be the one from this group to target

Jon Lester (30) Will likely stay with the Red Sox. Expensive. Lots of people think of him as an "A list" pitcher but is not.

Mike Pelfrey (30) Interesting to see him in the list, but his K/9 is not in the ball park. Can he get his K/9 up? Great fit in the Twins' club house. Should the Twins take another flier with Pelfrey another year away from TJ surgery?

Ervin Santana (31) Expensive. Lots of people think of him as an "A list" pitcher but is not. Received a qualifying offer. Stay away for the money. More expensive that all the pitchers in the A list, other than Jimenez.


The rest:

Gaudin was a reliever in 2012 when he met the criteria. Nolasco and Vargas are thought to belong in the "A list" potentially. They do not.

Who are the three starting pitchers the Minnesota Twins should sign in 2013, in order to be competitive in 2014 and beyond? They are:

Josh Johnson
Scott Kazmir
Edinson Volquez

Can they sign all three? The short answer is "yes", but I will examine the Twins' budget in another post...
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Comments

  1. Steve Penz's Avatar
    Did you say specifically how many years you could look for in the contracts? I am guessing you would go 2 years for kazmir and one each for Volquez and Johnson. What I like there is that Volquez and Johnson, if they do well, could be attractive at the trade deadline. The team could get great return (think Sulbaran) on investments in them. And, if they go then you have people like Diamond and Worley at AAA who have hopefully figured out some things by then.
  2. Steve Penz's Avatar
    BTW- Awesome analysis.
  3. Thrylos's Avatar
    Probably more, because there is not much of a pipeline in the Twins organization. I would look at a 3 year or 2+1 for Kazmir and the same for Johnson and an 1 + 1 for Volquez.

    I don't really think much of Diamond. On a good team he is a swingman at best. His 2013 was more like his 2011, which makes me think that his 2012 was an aberration (think Albers' first few games), because the raw stuff is not there as well... And we are talking about a good competitive team. And good, competitive teams do not sell good performing players in the deadline, unless they have better in the pipeline to replace them.

    The Twins have to start thinking like champions for a change...
  4. Mike Frasier Law's Avatar
    You say Ubaldo will have a high price tag. But if I remember correctly, the free agents that received qualifying offers last year had significantly repressed markets. Do you think that will happen with Ubaldo, and if do, do you think it increases the likelihood of the Twins signing him?
  5. Thrylos's Avatar
    Both Jimenez and E. Santana are in the same boat as far as QO's go. The difference between them and someone like Lohse last season is that he was 34, so a long term signing did not make much sense nor did giving up a 1st round pick for a year or two of his services. Jimenez and Santana are young enough to merit a long term contract and for some teams giving up a first round pick is not a big deal if they are going to win.

    Players like Beltran, Cruz, Kuroda, Grandenson and Napoli are in the same boat this season as Lohse was last season and they will be better of to accept those offers.
  6. Willihammer's Avatar
    Volquez is intriguing, he has a huge xFIP-ERA gap, good regression candidate but man is he wild sometimes. Personally I would prefer Roberto Hernandez. He's just outside all of your criteria but has really cut down on walks recently and has a more enormous GB rate. And he can dial it up to 94-95 when he has to. I've always liked his stuff.
  7. Thrylos's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by Willihammer
    Volquez is intriguing, he has a huge xFIP-ERA gap, good regression candidate but man is he wild sometimes. Personally I would prefer Roberto Hernandez. He's just outside all of your criteria but has really cut down on walks recently and has a more enormous GB rate. And he can dial it up to 94-95 when he has to. I've always liked his stuff.
    Just the fact that Roberto Hernandez was once known as Fausto Carmona is enough for me to not sign him. Gives the wrong message and I would not like people like him in the clubhouse. Skill or not skill. Same reason I would not like ARod, even if he were free.
  8. goulik's Avatar
    Thrylos, Amazingly informative post!! This is the most new info that I have read in the past two weeks on TD and I have read EVERYTHING! Thank You!!

    This also reinforces my desire to sign Josh Johnson to a creative contract. I keep hearing he wants just a one year contract to build value. Give him that one year with mutual options for two more years in a creative way that he will sign. For example: Year 1-7million;year 2-15 million team option/7.5 million player option;year 3-17 million team option/8 million player option. (Adjust the numbers to make sense and get er done)
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