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Can Terry Ryan Truly Change His Stripes?

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There’s a lot of chatter on this here interweb thingy lately concerning what Twins General Manager Terry Ryan’s next moves will be and should be. He came out of the gate fast this offseason, immediately setting out to shore up – if not completely rebuild – the Twins’ starting pitching rotation by signing free agents Ricky Nolasco, Phil Hughes and Mike Pelfrey.

But there’s still more than a little doubt as to whether this is truly a new Terry Ryan, willing to spend Pohlad money to make the Twins more competitive (or at least more watchable) immediately. There seems to be two schools of thought concerning what Ryan is likely to do next.


Can Terry Ryan change his stripes?

First, there’s still some smoke out there indicating Ryan is not done shopping for starting pitching. The top tier of free agent starters haven’t really fallen in to place yet while the world waits to hear whether Masahiro Tanaka will be posted by his Japanese team. Would Ryan make a play for Matt Garza, Bronson Arroyo or even Tanaka, himself? There are at least a few people out there who think he might.

The more prevalent thought, however, seems to be that Ryan is done shopping for starting pitching and is shifting his focus toward addressing what was a pretty anemic offense in 2013. He swung and missed at the top catching free agents, but may still be kicking the tires on backups, especially now that Ryan Doumit has been shipped to Atlanta to make room for Pelfrey on the 40-man roster.

(NOTE: After this article was originally published at Knuckleballsblog.com, the Twins signed catcher Kurt Suzuki to a one year deal for $2.75 million.)

Ryan has added a pair of former Twins, Jason Bartlett and Jason Kubel, on minor league contracts with invitations to the big club’s spring training. But, as people far smarter than I am have been pointing out, no combination of the Prodigal Jasons and a new backup catcher is going to result in significantly improved run production for the Twins.

The good folks at MLBTradeRumors.com pointed out recently that, of their “Top 50 free agents” list going in to the offseason, only five position players remain unsigned. That list includes Stephen Drew, Shin-Soo Choo, Nelson Cruz, Kendrys Morales and Raul Ibanez.

A while back, there was some buzz that the Twins were one of the teams that agent Scott Boras was talking to about Drew. I’m not sure which surprised me more, that the Twins were actually considering signing a player that would cost them a draft pick as compensation (Drew rejected the Red Sox’ Qualifying Offer) or that Terry Ryan apparently sat down in the same room with Scott Boras.

Certainly, the Twins have had Boras clients in their organization (and still do). But Boras has clients and then he has CLIENTS. Players like Drew are Boras CLIENTS – the kind that Boras uses every bit of leverage he can find to pull every last nickel and every last year out of a team to sign.

From what I’ve read among the Twins blogosphere and twittersphere, it’s hard enough for most Twins fans to believe Ryan would allow a draft pick – even a second rounder – to be pried from his hands in order to sign a free agent, but to give up that pick for a free agent represented by Scott Boras is just not something fans can get their heads around.

If you’re one of those fans, that’s okay. I understand. I do. But you might want to stop reading at this point, because if you can’t grasp that concept, what I’m going to propose next could make your head explode.

If I were Terry Ryan, I wouldn’t sign one of those five remaining “Top 50” MLBTR prospects. I wouldn’t sign one of the free agents that would cost me a draft pick. I wouldn’t sign one of Scott Boras’ CLIENTS.

I’d sign two.

First, I would absolutely sign Stephen Drew. He’s okay defensively and he’d be an offensive upgrade at one of the very few positions that the Twins could logically expect to upgrade at this point, given that third base and centerfield will be getting upgraded with top prospects Miguel Sano and Byron Buxton soon enough that it is likely impossible to attract strong free agents at those positions.

If you or Terry Ryan have concerns over losing that second round draft pick, I suggest you glance over the list of recent second rounders that Andrew Bryz-Gornia assembled over at Twinkie Town earlier this week. Or you could just take my word for the fact that giving up a second round pick for multiple current years of Stephen Drew is a no-brainer.

And, once I had a deal with Boras for Drew, I’d tell him I want Kendrys Morales, too.

Morales makes sense for the Twins.

Trust me, it feels as peculiar for me to say that as it does for you to hear it. But it’s true.

Morales turned down Seattle’s Qualifying Offer, as Drew did Boston’s. But if Drew is worth coughing up a second round pick, then the third round pick that Morales would cost the Twins is barely worth mentioning.

Morales was the Mariners’ primary designated hitter, but also filled in at first base occasionally. He’s a switch hitter with better results on the right side, which is something the Twins could make use of.

Certainly, you could make the argument that the Twins already have a relatively crowded DH corps with Kubel, Chris Parmelee and Chris Colabello already on board. But, seriously, those are exactly the types of players the Twins should be looking to improve upon. Having their presence keep you from signing a Morales is even more absurd than letting the presence of Bartlett, Pedro Florimon and Eduardo Escobar keep you from adding Drew. A guy like Florimon at least has some defensive value to consider, which is more than you can say for Kubel, Parmelee and Colabello.

But even if Ryan could be convinced that the two draft picks are worth giving up for Drew and Morales, could he find the money to pay what Scott Boras would extort from the Twins to sign them?

Heck, that’s the easy part.

After jettisoning Doumit’s salary commitment, my back-of-the-napkin math estimates the Twins are on the hook for about $80 million for 2014 (and that assumes that Kubel makes the team and gets the roster bonus that’s part of his minor league agreement with the Twins). So, as things stand, even after adding multi-million dollar deals for Nolasco, Hughes and Pelfrey, the Twins are still a couple million dollars BELOW their 2013 Opening Day payroll. (With Suzuki's signing, the Twins appear to be almost exactly at the 2013 Opening Day level.)

The Twins, by pretty much any reasonable estimate, operated a year ago well below their often self-stated goal of spending just over 50% of revenues on Major League payroll. They, like every other MLB team, are benefiting from new TV money that is estimated to be in the neighborhood of $25 million per team.

Conservatively – VERY conservatively – the Twins should be able to absorb a $110 million payroll in 2014 without so much as breaking a sweat concerning whether they will end up spending more than 50% of their revenues on payroll. Remember, that new national TV money comes with zero additional expenses to offset it. If the Twins took in $200 million in revenue a year ago (again a conservative estimate), those revenue projections just went up to $225 million.

That’s all a long way of saying that, yes, Terry Ryan can afford to add the $25-28 million in annual salary it may take to get Drew and Morales on board. From that point, you’re just talking about how many years and who has what options, etc.

But, would Drew and Morales actually sign on to join one of the worst MLB teams to take the field in 2013?

I grant that neither of them, nor Boras, certainly, had joining the Twins in mind when they rejected their old team’s Qualifying Offer. But times change.

Who else will give enough money to either of these two players to make rejecting those Qualifying Offers a good decision? The list of teams with enough payroll flexibility to afford one of them is short. When you cross off those teams that have no need for a shortstop or a designated hitter (no matter what Boras claims, I can’t see any NL team paying Morales to actually field a defensive position every day), the list all but disappears.

The Red Sox and Mariners, the players’ former teams which would not have to give up draft pick compensation to re-sign them, have recently added new talent at the players’ positions, quite possibly eliminating chances for return engagements.

The Yankees could use Morales, if not for the fact that they already have a boatload of over-the-hill position players that they’ll almost certainly need to rotate through the DH spot. The other free-spending clubs (the Dodgers, Rangers, Angels, Phillies, Tigers, Giants) look to me to be pretty set at Drew’s and Morales’ positions.

From where I sit, Terry Ryan and Scott Boras need one another.

Ryan’s Twins represent the kind of “surprise” team that Boras loves to pull out of his hat to prove how smart he is and that, when he tells a player he’s going to get paid, he gets paid.

Boras and his clients can provide Terry Ryan with what are realistically perhaps the only two true offensive upgrades that match his needs and will prove, once and for all, that he and his bosses are done sitting and waiting for “someday” to come.

Tell me this line up wouldn’t score runs:

  1. Presley CF
  2. Dozier 2B
  3. Mauer 1B
  4. Morales DH
  5. Drew SS
  6. Willingham LF
  7. Arcia/Kubel RF
  8. Pinto/Suzuki C
  9. Plouffe 3B

And now, with just a couple of adjustments later in the year or by 2015:

  1. Buxton CF
  2. Dozier 2B
  3. Mauer 1B
  4. Sano 3B
  5. Morales DH
  6. Drew SS
  7. Rosario LF
  8. Arcia/Kubel RF
  9. Pinto C

If you like Hicks in there somewhere to provide more OF defense, OK. Certainly, we could debate who should hit where in that line up. But the point is, that is a line up that suddenly looks very different than what the Twins trotted out there every day in 2013.

And it still wouldn’t project the Twins to be above the middle third of MLB team payroll on Opening Day (which is about where they rightfully should be), nor would it hamstring them from making future moves. In a worst case scenario, Drew and Morales are likely to be marketable assets, assuming Boras doesn’t talk the Twins in to full no-trade clauses.

Of course, none of this is likely to happen.

I expect Boras to let things play out for Drew and Morales, much like he did for Kyle Lohse a year ago before matching him up with the Brewers shortly before spring training camps opened up.

In the mean time, maybe Terry Ryan will find creative ways to improve the Twins’ offense.

But if February rolls around and it still looks like the Twins are counting on Jason Kubel to provide their improved offense and Scott Boras is still looking for face-saving options for these two CLIENTS, then Ryan and Boras need to get back in a room together.

Of course, I’d prefer they do so right now.

- JC

Updated 12-20-2013 at 10:20 AM by Jim Crikket

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Comments

  1. old nurse's Avatar
    Drew turned down 14 million for 1 year. a 4/53 like Perralta signed is a risk deal. Drew has had 2 very good seasons and a few not so good seasons with the bat. I do not see Ryan signing that kind of player. When it gets to almost spring training time, if you could coax a 3/21 kind of deal for both of the players it would make sense to sign both. I think they each should have signed their one year offers.
    Updated 12-21-2013 at 01:00 AM by old nurse
  2. johnnydakota's Avatar
    Thanks a nice read, Im in the corner of , Terry cant stop being Terry , and he will continue to look for bargins and rehabed players
  3. twinsfan34's Avatar
    Terry Ryan seems to have a different take his 2nd go around at GM. That's what industry experts say. And you can see it in the types of pitchers he's picking now too. High velocity, high swing and miss versus the control college pitcher types. Byron Buxton seems to be a find, they're pretty active in DR, PR, AUS, and GER. I look for them to be active again this summer with their relatively high amount of international signing money left.

    Then factor in the Free Agent money he's shelled out for SP and it appears he wants one more.

    Signing Bartlett and Kubel to minor league deals are low risk higher reward type of deals. Not biting on Salty was a good idea, even though he went for a modest $7M.

    And I believe not biting on Stephen Drew is big deal. He's gotten where he's actually a below average defender at SS, according to SABR and other metric heavy groups. I think the bat is getting worse and he's already only a .250 hitter. Florimon cost $490K. Drew has $14M sitting on the table for a 1 year tender from the Sox. He's barely 1 WAR better than Florimon, for $13M more per season? Not a good deal. Sign Tanaka with that money. And if you must lose a Draft Pick, this is a deep draft, think more at the 2012 draft and where the Twins will be picking. Sure, he's an upgrade over Florimon, but this is about Wins and if in FA, buying Wins, Drew is essentially 1 Win for in excess of $10M per over Florimon. Are there any other $10M deals out there worth 2 WAR? or 3 WAR?

    Concerning the Draft. Just looking at 2012, which is considered not as deep as this draft. That's Stephen Piscotty, Lance McCullers, Eddie Butler, Paco Rodriguez, Alex Wood territory. Guys who are already in MLB or are stud prospects starting at AAA in only 1.5 seasons of baseball.

    Jorge Polanco is raking in the DWL, he had a very solid A-ball (Cedar Rapids) season and the jump from AA to MLB might only be 1 to 1.5 years away, heck maybe a Sept Call up. I wouldn't be surprised if he could hit .250 in the pros already and provide better D than Drew. I think the Twins would like to see more though.

    Trea Turner is 3 year stud at NC State and looks to be available at pick #5 for this upcoming draft. He could be a quick mover. 80 grade speed, great D. The amount of stick he has will decide how fast he makes it to MLB. But he's likely at most 2 years away.

    I'd hope they don't sign Drew for anything over a 1 yr $5 deal. Anything more is losing money for production in a season that likely won't see the Twins compete for a playoff position.

    If they must spend $14M and lose a 2nd RD Draft pick, let it Ubaldo Jiminez or Ervin Santana.

    I'd love to see the progression of WAR vs Age for SS's over 30.
  4. Jim H's Avatar
    I think the idea of Terry Ryan changing his stripes is silly. He has gotten to where he is by being what he is and that isn't going to change. Signing Drew isn't out of the realm of possibility but it would have to be on Ryan's terms. Which would likely be a short term contract. Drew isn't enough better than Florimon to justify the likely cost coupled with the loss of a draft pick plus the resulting lack of flexibility that might result.

    Morales is interesting but I don't see it happening. It looks to me that Ryan is trying to manuever his roster so that Willingham becomes the full time DH and that there will be a couple of real defenders in the outfield everyday. Morales doesn't help that plan.(If that is the plan) The difficultity of course is that nobody knows if Hicks can hit enough to be a full time outfielder or when Buxton will actually arrive. Or for that matter whether Arcia can be acceptable in RF, whether Plouffe could hold down LF when Sano arrives, or Rosario could. Most everybody else on the roster look like backups, bit players or perhaps some sort of situational/platoon guys.
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