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pierre75275

Who gets traded this year?

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I was thinking that there was a really good chance this year that by the end of August there is going to be a whole new Twins roster to watch. So I went through the roster and listed each player as well as the probability that they would be traded or released by the end of August.

I did this because I do not believe the Twins will be all that good this year (see, well out of contention by July) and I believe that there a lot of players that won't be back next year, the Twins will be promoting players early and often when the current players do not or under perform. This is done with the caveat that any player can be traded at anytime. I look forward to the feedback I will get on my first post.

Jared Burton: 40% Traded
Kevin Corria: 75% Traded
Sam Deduno:60% Traded
Brian Duensing: 80% non-tendered then re-signed at the end of the year
Casey Fien: 50% Traded
Kyle Gibson: 0% Traded
Phil Hughes: 5% Traded
Ricky Nolasco: 0% Traded
Mike Pelfrey: 20% Traded
Glen Perkins: 0% Traded
Anthony Swarzak: 45% traded
Caleb Thielbar: 0% traded

Josmil Pinto: 0% traded
Kurt Suzuki: 0% traded
Jason Bartlett: Released by June
Chris Colabello: 0% traded 15% optioned to AAA
Brian Dozier: 0% Traded
Eduardo Escobar 0% Traded 0% Optioned to AAA
Pedro Floriman: 0% Traded 75% Optioned to AAA
Joe Mauer: 0% traded
Trevor Plouffe: 40% Traded
Oswaldo Arcia: 0% traded
Aaron Hicks: 0% Traded
Josh Willingham: 25% Traded 75% Released in August
Jason Kubel: 100% Released in August
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Comments

  1. blindeke's Avatar
    I like this post. It's depressing and strangely optimistic at the same time.

    Your most positive prediction is for Kubel? Defend yourself, good man.
  2. tobi0040's Avatar
    I put KC at about 100%. I was very confident early on, but it seems like pitchers are dropping left and right and the season is young.

    I think Deduno is an asset, controllable. Can make spot starts and be in the pen. I think we keep him.

    I don't see Plouffe being moved either. He is cheap and can play 3B, 1B, LF, and RF and pounds lefties.

    I hope you are wrong about Josh and Kubel, I hope they both play well enough to warrant a prospect.

    Good blog.
  3. Highabove's Avatar
    Are the wagering windows open?
    I would like to put $10 on Casey Fein
    Updated 04-01-2014 at 03:27 PM by Highabove
  4. Sconnie's Avatar
    It wouldn't surprise me to see Florimon or Dozier traded, depending on how Santana and Rosario do this season.

    if Rosario comes back from suspension hitting and fielding well, Dozier is valuable and expendable.

    If Escobar can hit like he did last fall or Santana show the ability to play SS well, Florimon could be a valuable defensive sub for a contender close to trade deadline or in August.
  5. Cris E's Avatar
    I think if they move any bullpen guys they'll keep Swarzak (homegrown) and move Burton or Fien, probably Burton since he's got a better track record so he'd bring a better return.

    If Willingham is toast it'll be obvious by May and he'll be sitting in MN on August 1. At that point there's little reason to play him or trade him until Sept, when his playing time will be more valuable in the hands of the kids. My guess is that is if he bombs we'll see more Kubel, and if he bombs too by the end of June we'll see the end of the Eddie Rosario 2B Experience and the dawn of Rosario: LF. When his 50 games wrap up they'll tune up his bat and have him go stand in LF, defense or no.
  6. pierre75275's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by blindeke
    I like this post. It's depressing and strangely optimistic at the same time.

    Your most positive prediction is for Kubel? Defend yourself, good man.
    My prediction on Kubel is that he is released by the first of August. I believe that because at this point in his career he is on an extreme downward spiral. Now I hope I am wrong but given his contributions the last year and a half I don't see him sticking with the Twins all year.
  7. pierre75275's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by Sconnie
    It wouldn't surprise me to see Florimon or Dozier traded, depending on how Santana and Rosario do this season.

    if Rosario comes back from suspension hitting and fielding well, Dozier is valuable and expendable.

    If Escobar can hit like he did last fall or Santana show the ability to play SS well, Florimon could be a valuable defensive sub for a contender close to trade deadline or in August.
    Good points, all...but I believe Bartlett will get released first before any of those other things happen
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