Minnesota Twins News & Rumors Forum
View RSS Feed

jorgenswest

Some Samples No Longer Small: Pitchers

Rate this Entry
Sample sizes for a few ratios are becoming large enough to consider. For pitchers, strike out rate stabilizes at 70 batters faced and ground ball and fly ball rate stabilizes at 70 balls in play. By stabilizing, that doesnít necessarily mean it is the new expected rate. It does mean that any significant changes from previous year cannot be written off to small sample size. For minor leaguers a drop or change likely coincides with a step up in classification and the necessary adjustment. It is also important to note that the 70 is a major league threshold. I am not aware of minor league research in this area. It is reasonable to assume that k-rate and ground ball rate would stabilize earlier than other rates.

Looking at the levels

Minnesota
Age
Team
BF

2014
K%
2013
K%

2014
GB%
2013
GB%
Ricky Nolasco
31.5
MIN
134

10%
20%

50%
41%
Kyle Gibson
26.7
MIN
129

12%
18%

51%
51%
Kevin Correia
33.8
MIN
125

10%
13%

42%
42%
Phil Hughes
28
MIN
121

22%
19%

31%
30%
Mike Pelfrey
30.4
MIN
119

8%
15%

42%
44%
Samuel Deduno
30.9
MIN
83

22%
16%

49%
58%
Anthony Swarzak
28.8
MIN
69

10%
18%

46%
44%

A lot has been written about Pelfrey. The 8% strike out rate wonít cut it. Nolasco has a significant drop in strike out rate. A little of the drop can be attributed to switching leagues. His pitch mix in his early starts was very different than with the Dodgers. He was throwing more 4 seam fastballs and fewer sliders with the Twins. Maybe the Twins staff took notice. Yesterdayís game was the first Twin start in which he threw more sliders than 4-seam fastballs.

Rochester
Age
Team
BF

2014
K%
2013
K%

2014
GB%
2013
GB%
Kris Johnson
29.7
ROC/MIN
113
22%
17%
50%
50%
Alex Meyer
24.4
ROC
112
31%
30%
41%
57%
Scott Diamond
27.9
ROC
105
13%
10%
35%
45%
Trevor May
24.8
ROC
96
32%
24%
33%
38%
Logan Darnell
25.3
ROC
88
24%
19%
41%
49%
Yohan Pino
30.5
ROC
85
32%
22%
30%
35%
Meyer, May and Pino havenít hit the 70 ball in play threshold for groundball rate to be stabilized due to their high strike out counts. I am looking forward to seeing May and Meyer in the majors. Mayís mix may be similar to Phil Hughes and perhaps Target field will be a good match for him.

New Britain
Age
Team
BF

2014
K%
2013
K%

2014
GB%
2013
GB%
Taylor Rogers
23.5
NBR
117

22%
16%

42%
53%
Pat Dean
25.1
NBR
113

18%
12%

44%
40%
Sean Gilmartin
24.1
NBR
99

23%
18%

31%
38%
D.J. Baxendale
23.5
NBR
93

13%
18%

47%
33%
Matt Summers
24.8
NBR
76

17%
17%

53%
44%

Gilmartinís rate should be followed. The increase could be explained by the drop from AAA to AA. It may also be a return to when he was seen as a good prospect. At some point, he will hit AAA and hopefully the improved strike out rate will follow him.

Fort Myers
Age
Team
BF

2014
K%
2013
K%

2014
GB%
2013
GB%
Tyler Duffey
23.5
FTM/NB
119

15%
18%

35%
44%
Jose Berrios
20.1
FTM
114

18%
22%

39%
41%
Mason Melotakis
23
FTM
94

19%
18%

50%
46%
Alex Wimmers
25.6
FTM
81

16%
23%

45%
26%
Steven Gruver
25
FTM
74

14%
23%

54%
50%
Tim Shibuya
24.8
FTM
70

13%
17%

69%
48%

I would expect Berriosí numbers to improve as he adjusts to high A. Wimmers hasnít pitched much either year. Letís hope he can find the talent that made him a late first round pick.

Cedar Rapids
Age
Team
BF

2014
K%
2013
K%

2014
GB%
2013
GB%
Aaron Slegers
21.8
CR
116

23%
27%

61%
60%
Ryan Eades
22.5
CR
114

21%
19%

31%
48%
Kohl Stewart
19.7
CR
98

17%
29%

49%
43%
Felix Jorge
20.4
CR
82

17%
29%

37%
48%
Ethan Mildren
23
CR
72

25%
19%

65%
51%
Josue Montanez
22.4
CR
70

27%
14%

37%
42%

Slegerís combination of strike outs and ground balls is encouraging. A midseason call up to Fort Myers seems reasonable.

Walk rate stabilizes next for pitchers at 170 plate appearances. I have looked for when pitch level data rates (swing and miss rate) stabilizes, but have not seen it. Since there are more pitch events than batters faced or balls in play events, I would guess that some of those rates have stabilized.

Updated 05-03-2014 at 02:16 PM by jorgenswest

Tags: None Add / Edit Tags
Categories
Uncategorized

Comments

  1. Sconnie's Avatar
    Good stuff jorgenwest. I'm very excited for Meyer and May
©2014 TwinsCentric, LLC. All Rights Reserved.
Interested in advertising with Twins Daily? Click here.