Danny Santana & the .1% Solution
by, 05-11-2014 at 10:03 PM (905 Views)
Danny Santana is a major league prospect. He isn't in the Twins' Top Ten and he isn't a Top 100 prospect in minor league baseball. Most players with his pedigree don't become stars, but some do and I imagine some become All-Stars and most likely some have become Hall of Fame players.
Santana's strength as a prospect are his raw tools. He has great speed and a strong arm. His minor league stats have been unremarkable. Finally, he is a prospect in a position of need for his team.
Santana was called up because there really wasn't any one else available. He was healthy and on the 40-man roster in a situation where there Twins were without a sufficient bench and had two players hitting below .130. What are the odds that a stopgap call-up stays in the majors and never looks back? I would say about 1 in a 1000 when the guy is a middling prospect as is how I profile Mr. Santana.
I am a Twins fan and I hope for the best for my team. Against all odds, I am hoping that the Twins called up Santana at exactly the minute that he "got it" and that he would develop into a solid major leaguer.
It appears that Santana's chance to thrive could come as an outfielder. That makes the chances of success even smaller than one in a thousand. I can hope for the best, but realize that it is a near certainty that Danny Santana will be back in Rochester long before the All-Star break. Maybe, just maybe, he'll defy the odds.
By the way, hoping for Santana to defy the odds doesn't mean that I accept the Twins puzzling moves (I'm trying to be kind). Two straight years of center field struggles without adequate back-ups is only part of their problem. Carrying too many relief pitchers, falling in love with no-hit catchers and failing to be pro-active when injuries occur are pretty much inexcusable, if not inexplicable.