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A Realistic Fix to the 2014 Twins

Kennys Vargas update

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Reportedly, numbers never lie.

Except, we all know this is false in the game of baseball. There are so many various statistics and measurements that can be used to make cases pro and con. And in the case of a hitter/position player, there are many various mitigating circumstances that influence their production. Not just a player's hot and cold streaks and adjustments, but also protection and batters on base in front of them.

Through today, Saturday May 31st, his per AB numbers have him on pace to finish at 27 Dbls, (down from 32 last season), nearly identical HR numbers, 20 vs 19, and 89 RBI vs 93 in 2013.

However, despite nearly identical numbers compared to last season, per AB, based on this season and last season's 457 AB's, or a slight regression this season, it should be pointed out that not only did Vargas start out a little slow out of the gate this season, but he's also up a level at AA, and unlike last season, there is no Buxton, Rosario or Sano to help carry the load.

Further, compare his overall slash line:

2013: .267Avg/ .344 OB%/ .468 SLG%/ .813 OPS
2014: .324Avg/ .401 OB%/ .514 SLG%/ .914OPS

Even more, he struck out at a rate of 23% percent per AB in 2013, and walked at an 11% rate, all based on 457 AB's for the season.

Thus far in 2014, in 185 AB's, he is striking out at a 17% rate, and walking at a 13% rate.

Granted, these numbers are based on AB's and not plate appearances, but I doubt there would be much discrepancy.

I believe this begs the question, "what happens next?"

I would think this speaks of a promotion to Rochester soon, after the all star break to be sure. I think Vargas has crossed the line of: "coming up" to a possible September call up and a possible bat for the 2015 Twins.
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Comments

  1. Brandon's Avatar
    The difference then is the increase in batting average. So we need to break that down. Whats his BABIP? is his average unsustainably high?

    Though I do agree that if he keeps this up he deserves a promotion. His bat I think has always been in the plans. as he has been compared to David Ortiz for a while. We'll probably release him after posting an .830 OPS so Boston can sign him and .....
  2. jorgenswest's Avatar
    At this number of plate appearances, strike out rate, walk rate and possibly ISO have passed the small sample threshold.

    Those numbers are encouraging given the jump to AA.

    2014 15.1%, 11.3%, .190
    2013 20.2%, 9.6%, .201

    In the last two years, the Twins have moved up some prospects in the second half of a June. It makes sense as it coincides with the A-Ball all star games and signing of some draft picks. The AA all star game is July 16 if they wait that long.
  3. Madre Dos's Avatar
    I just love Kennys. He is a HUGE fan favorite (in more ways than one). He posted a picture today in a Rock Cats uniform dressed up as a Jack-o-lantern. That's 1 big pumpkin. I have a message in to him to see if they celebrated Halloween in June in New Britain.
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