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The Value of Supplemental Draft Picks

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Regarding the discussion of whom to pick with the #2 choice in the upcoming draft, there is also the group of supplemental picks the Twins will get. Even if the team believes pitching is their sorest need, it's one reasonable strategy to pick a stud position player at #2 and then load up with pitching prospects a little further down in the draft, if you think pitchers are inherently riskier to develop. However, those supplemental draft picks aren't quite the slam-dunk that some people were thinking when the question was whether to re-sign free agents after last season. Here is a lightly-edited excerpt from a posting I made to alt.sports.baseball.mn-twins last December. I'd be interested in people's reactions:

...Supplemental draft picks are of varying
value. I prowled around baseball-reference.com's record
of drafts, going back far enough to evaluate full careers,
and if you look at the second round of the 1994 June draft,
i.e. picks 35-63 (about equivalent to current supplemental
rounds), the only players who made any significant major
league contribution were Troy Glaus and Matt LeCroy. That
was admittedly a weak year (1995 had several luminaries
like Carlos Beltran and Sean Casey), but LeCroy as the
second best player out of all 29 picks after the real
first round??? Pretty much the definition of a crapshoot
unless your team is awarded all the picks, not just two
or three.

BTW, I saw a suggestion, probably tongue-in-cheek, that the
Twins should sign Willingham and the A's sign Cuddyer,
at the same price. Then each team collects the draft
pick(s), and trades the two players back for each other.
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