Offseason Trade Candidates

IF you do the deal for Shields, it may take Span +. I would rather give them Parmalee(which fills two of Tampa's needs cheaply) and would only add about 6 mil to the Twins payroll. What is not being dicsussed that often is that either Hicks or Arcia should be here next year, so I would think Span or Revere needs to be moved to make room. Middle indield is also a need and that will need some money spent on it. Twins still need either a shortstop or a second basemen who can hit if they wish to be competitive. This is along with much more ptiching.

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Originally Posted by JP3700

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Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp

Shields and Sabathia aren't even close to the same player. Sabathia is one year older yet has pitched 1100 more innings. Sabathia also has a career ERA+ of 122 to Shields' 107.

Outside of being stupid-reliable, there just isn't much about Shields to rave about. Yes, he's a good pitcher. Yes, he's reliable. But outside of 2011 and 2008, he's been just a little better than the AL average. He's also going into his age 31 season and will be paid over $20m in the next two years. That's not a guy you loot the farm to pick up. You can spend that same $20m to go get a guy like Edwin Jackson (plus another $10-12m for a third year) without giving up anyone and Jackson is two years younger than Shields.

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I guess you failed to read where I said he's not as good as Sabathia. My comparison is to the fact that he is a workhorse, a leader and that his 6th and 7th seasons in the big leagues are where his numbers started trending up, all similar to Shields. Is it not possible that Shields is becoming a better pitcher over time as Sabathia has?

He's only had one bad season in 6+ years in the league.. Even Verlander had a bad year. He's struck out 450 guys in the last 2 years and has one of if not the best change ups in the league. He is much much better than "just a little better than AL average".

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My point is that Sabathia started getting better as he aged into his mid to late 20s. That's a typical player progression. Shields is "improving" (even though he has actually regressed this season) as he enters his 30s. That leads me to believe that 2011 was the aberration, not an actual improvement. Again, he's a good pitcher. He's not a great one like Sabathia, who combines being both a workhorse and a 120 ERA+ pitcher.

Verlander had his "bad" season (which was still quite a bit better than Shield's much worse "bad" season) at age 25. Shields bottomed out in his age 28 season. Shields overperformed his xFIP by a large margin in 2011 and is slightly underperforming it this season. Reality is probably somewhere between those two seasons. A very good pitcher, not a great one and a pitcher that won't drastically overperform his roughly $11m salary over the next two years.

My point on Shields has nothing to do with his real value. It has everything to do with what the DRays ask for their players. They tend to ask the moon for return on their guys and offer the toilet for other teams' players. It has been their reputation for a number of years now.

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Originally Posted by biggentleben

My point on Shields has nothing to do with his real value. It has everything to do with what the DRays ask for their players. They tend to ask the moon for return on their guys and offer the toilet for other teams' players. It has been their reputation for a number of years now.

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Ah, that's fair. I've long believed that the best return on Span will be a player in the low minors. I'm not against the Twins making a run at a Johnson or Shields but if the asking price is too high, Ryan should try to move Span for prospects. It's the smart move, IMO. Trying to get a ML pitcher for Span is going to prove to be a tall order, I think. The best long-term solution for the team is to stock the farm as much as possible while also attacking the FA market.

I guess we'll just agree to disagree Brock. I just think more highly of him than you do apparently. However, I would think that you would agree with me that he is the best pitcher that we could realistically acquire. I do agree with you that I wouldn't overpay for him either, as I wouldn't for anyone in the state we're in.

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Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp

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Originally Posted by biggentleben

My point on Shields has nothing to do with his real value. It has everything to do with what the DRays ask for their players. They tend to ask the moon for return on their guys and offer the toilet for other teams' players. It has been their reputation for a number of years now.

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Ah, that's fair. I've long believed that the best return on Span will be a player in the low minors. I'm not against the Twins making a run at a Johnson or Shields but if the asking price is too high, Ryan should try to move Span for prospects. It's the smart move, IMO. Trying to get a ML pitcher for Span is going to prove to be a tall order, I think. The best long-term solution for the team is to stock the farm as much as possible while also attacking the FA market.

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I really think the Braves do offer the opportunity for the Twins to get a high-talent MLB arm while Atlanta can get the leadoff CFer that they covet.

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Originally Posted by JP3700

I guess we'll just agree to disagree Brock. I just think more highly of him than you do apparently. However, I would think that you would agree with me that he is the best pitcher that we could realistically acquire. I do agree with you that I wouldn't overpay for him either, as I wouldn't for anyone in the state we're in.

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I'd put Shields and Johnson pretty close in my rankings. Either one would be miles better than anything the Twins rolled out in 2012.

I'm not even down on Shields. I like him as a pitcher quite a bit. I only think that if it takes significantly more to get him than Span, I'd pass. Shields has been an above average innings-eater but you can't bank on him being much more than that. I don't really buy into his 2011 season and at over $10m a year, he's not much of a steal, especially if you have to give up valuable assets to get him.

Edwin Jackson is nowhere close to Shields. He's not an ace but that's also why he's potentially available. I would be absolutely thrilled to have a 2/3 starter in this rotation. If you really like Jackson then it's still possible to pick him up also.

I think a guy like Shields is the best direction in a trade of Span or Willy. I would love to get a couple of great prospects for them but teams are very hesitant with giving up prospects and most likely the return will be borderline awful if you push to deal either of them. I wish Shields was locked up for a 3rd yr but this beats the hell out of shelling out a 4+/60+ contract for someone like him that is probably older.