09-29-2012, 09:42 AM #21
Thryloss, I don't think you're being intellectually honest on this, or that hindsight is clouding your mind. You were blogging in 2009 and wrote about Dickey several times. If you had a post after the 2009 season that expounded on why the Twins should keep Dickey, I can't find it. In fact, I find just the opposite - an 8/21 post in which you're advocating calling up Johan Pino in September over Dickey.
Seriously, Thryloss, I'm not picking on you. The fact is that NOBODY saw this coming. Not me, not you, not the statheads, not the prospect hounds, not the Twins, not any other major league team and not even the Mets. He signd a minor league deal, for chrissakes!
And there is a reason for all of that. He was TERRIBLE past June that year. I rember having high hopes for him going into that St. Louis series and he completely imploded shortly therafter. He had an ERA over 9 starting July 1. He was demoted. He had an ERA over 5 in Rochester. I don't even think he got a September callup. And the next year he was every fantasy baseball player owners lucky pick of the year.
Gardy and Anderson might have missed it, or Ryan, or Smith, but so did you and I and the entire baseball watching world. (I remember advocating his demotion). So, if you want to pin it on someone, you're going to need a LOT of pins.
09-29-2012, 12:10 PM #22
Dickey's 2009 numbers in the majors: 4.62 ERA, 1.617 WHIP, 5.9 K/BB, 1.4 K/9. Not exactly earth shaking by any means but better than the four mentioned. Plus he made to the majors for a division winning team (remember those years? ) unlike the aforementioned.
Also, here are Samuel Deduno's numbers so far this season: 4.44 ERA, 1.544 WHIP, 6.5 K/9, 1.08 K/BB . Not that much different and pretty much equivalent if you look at their relative BABIPs: .267 for Deduno this season vs. ,319 for Dickey in 2009. I suspect that the Twins (pretty much the same people who let Dickie go) will not learn Deduno go.
Frankly, if you look at the differences between the Twins' Dickie and the Mets' Dickie are:
- He was one more season removed (and now 3) from injury
- He has been used as a starter with the Mets vs. as a reliever with the Twins
- National League vs. American League
- Different manager, coaches, trainers and staff.
I suspect all 4 contributed to his suggest; what contributed more and what less, I cannot tell. And, interestingly enough, if you look at Jason Marquis this season and his resurgence after he left the Twins, the last 2 factors are there for him as well. So when there is enough smoke, there must be some fire, don't you think?
The Twins seem to be overtly coddling the players they drafted and tend to keep them over players who they got in a trade or via minor league free agency. I guess it has to do with what they have invested into them and hope if they keep them longer they might get some return (Blackburn, Manship Perkins come to mind.) Perkins worked pretty well, I am not sure about the other 2... But, again, look at Dickey's numbers in 2009 vs those of the mentioned 3.
There is a lot of frustration with the way the Twins have been performing the last 2 seasons.-----
Blogging Twins since 2007 at The Tenth Inning Stretch
09-30-2012, 08:27 AM #23
Deduno and Dickey are decent comps. But there are differences in context. First, any success Dickey had was in the first three months of the season. I don't think we can overstate just how bad he was from July through September. Deduno's rise has been in the last half, except recently, and that has certainly jeopardized his status for next year. Like I said, he was bad enough in Rochester and the latter halfof 2009 that nobody had a problem keeping him of the Sept roster.
As for Marquis, that's a different data point in my mind. I know you're opposed to Gardy and Anderson and I can see valid points on them - especially Anderson, for whom I used to write glowing reports. But Dickey is such a weak data point in my mind as to negligible. If I was making an argument against Anderson's work, I'd personally leave it off because it so easily refutable and make me look biased. I'd feel like a pro-Romney guy talking about where Obama was born.
09-30-2012, 11:21 AM #24
I knew this thread would be about the Twins cutting Dickey. How could they not see that a 35 yr old knuckleballer with no positive signs of improving on his 5+ career ERA was going to cut his BB rate in half and become one of the better pitchers in the league? This should have been perfectly obvious to anyone that saw him pitch.
09-30-2012, 05:43 PM #25
Knuckeballers are nothing if not late bloomers -- I'm glad for his success, and attribute a large part of it to maturity, National League, and perhaps a bit of short-sightedness on the Twins part.
I like a rotation with variety, and Liriano - Dickey would have added a nice contrast to soft throwing pitch to contact righties. Throw in Diamond, and that could have been an interesting rotation.
09-30-2012, 08:37 PM #26
I would have loved to have seen these posters that think the twins were shortsighted after a guy like Dickey was given 150 innings the following season and posted 5+ ERA.
These same guys came out of the woodwork after Humber's perfect game this season. He finished up with a 6.50 ERA.
09-30-2012, 10:17 PM #27