Thread: Josh Johnson

Originally Posted by TheLeviathan

Originally Posted by PseudoSABR

given that JJ could increase his trade value and be cheaper at the deadline. Personally, I'd be willing to overpay to get the guy this offseason, just because of the flexibility the Twins would have whether they win or lose.

Given his health history, it's equally likely he has no value at the deadline.

Equally as likely? Give me a god damn break. Does he have the potential to get injured? Sure, but not let's act like it is some forgone conclusion or anything even close to that:

Observe:

2009: 207 IP
2010: 183.2 IP
2011:60.1 IP
2012:191.1 P

Originally Posted by jorgenswest

These two performed among the top 25 pitchers last year.

Pitchers the caliber of Johnson and Shields return top 50 prospects. That's Sano territory.

no Sano is top 20 territory. A guy like Rosario is top 50 territory, also as recent history has shown us, teams are much less likely to trade top prospect these days.

Though Shields will command at least 2 very good prospects, Johnson may be a bit cheaper prospect wise.

Originally Posted by TheLeviathan

Originally Posted by PseudoSABR

given that JJ could increase his trade value and be cheaper at the deadline. Personally, I'd be willing to overpay to get the guy this offseason, just because of the flexibility the Twins would have whether they win or lose.

Given his health history, it's equally likely he has no value at the deadline.

You're right there is injury risk, but maybe some due diligence would go along way to tipping the scales. (In any case, JJ has pitched at least 180IP three of four seasons*). In theory, it's a risk I'm willing to take given the payroll coming off the books, and the boom/bust nature of 2013. Again, I'd hold off trying to resign the guy until midseason or even offseason 2013.

*Dave beat me to the point /hattip

Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave

Originally Posted by TheLeviathan

Originally Posted by PseudoSABR

given that JJ could increase his trade value and be cheaper at the deadline. Personally, I'd be willing to overpay to get the guy this offseason, just because of the flexibility the Twins would have whether they win or lose.

Given his health history, it's equally likely he has no value at the deadline.

Equally as likely? Give me a god damn break. Does he have the potential to get injured? Sure, but not let's act like it is some forgone conclusion or anything even close to that:

Observe:

2009: 207 IP
2010: 183.2 IP
2011:60.1 IP
2012:191.1 P

Is JJ not getting all of his starts per year or is he a less than 6 innings a game pitcher? 32-34 starts a year should get the pitcher 220 innings?

Originally Posted by old nurse

Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave

Originally Posted by TheLeviathan

Originally Posted by PseudoSABR

given that JJ could increase his trade value and be cheaper at the deadline. Personally, I'd be willing to overpay to get the guy this offseason, just because of the flexibility the Twins would have whether they win or lose.

Given his health history, it's equally likely he has no value at the deadline.

Equally as likely? Give me a god damn break. Does he have the potential to get injured? Sure, but not let's act like it is some forgone conclusion or anything even close to that:

Observe:

2009: 207 IP
2010: 183.2 IP
2011:60.1 IP
2012:191.1 P

Is JJ not getting all of his starts per year or is he a less than 6 innings a game pitcher? 32-34 starts a year should get the pitcher 220 innings?

2010 he had 28 starts and 31 this year.

I'll go with the trade for shields. though I have no idea what it would take to get him. fun to speculate....Span, Rosario, and Burton maybe
sign Joe Blanton to 2 year 18 million with 3rd year option and Baker to a 1 year 3-4 million with some incentives 1-3 million maybe and with a 1 year 8-10 option. Thats just over 20 million to fix the rotation. And the options give the Twins flexibilty to either save money on production or end the relationship before losses mount. These moves have the potential to help keep the rotation stable for the next 2-3 years.

Shields
Blanton
Baker
Diamond
Hendricks, Gibson, Deduno, and Devries and I guess Blackburn gets a glance in spring training too.

Thats a solid rotation with depth in case of injury or ineffectiveness.

3 years of an above average lead-off hitter/good fielding CF, a top 100 prospect, and an incredibly cheap set-up man for 2 years of a good #2 starter sounds like a terrible idea to me.

Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave

Originally Posted by old nurse

Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave

Originally Posted by TheLeviathan

Originally Posted by PseudoSABR

given that JJ could increase his trade value and be cheaper at the deadline. Personally, I'd be willing to overpay to get the guy this offseason, just because of the flexibility the Twins would have whether they win or lose.

Given his health history, it's equally likely he has no value at the deadline.

Equally as likely? Give me a god damn break. Does he have the potential to get injured? Sure, but not let's act like it is some forgone conclusion or anything even close to that:

Observe:

2009: 207 IP
2010: 183.2 IP
2011:60.1 IP
2012:191.1 P

Is JJ not getting all of his starts per year or is he a less than 6 innings a game pitcher? 32-34 starts a year should get the pitcher 220 innings?

2010 he had 28 starts and 31 this year.

You say he is an ace yet expect that he will sigh for number two money at a less than ideal contract length and money for him. You expect the Marlins to trade for him for a low level high ceiling prospect and throw ins. For the money that would still be about 15% of the payroll you would need a spot starter and a pitcher to get you through the seventh along with your set up man and closer. That sounds like a trade that will not happen, a signing that will not happen and a need for a very good bullpen.

Originally Posted by old nurse

Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave

Originally Posted by old nurse

Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave

Originally Posted by TheLeviathan

Originally Posted by PseudoSABR

given that JJ could increase his trade value and be cheaper at the deadline. Personally, I'd be willing to overpay to get the guy this offseason, just because of the flexibility the Twins would have whether they win or lose.

Given his health history, it's equally likely he has no value at the deadline.

Equally as likely? Give me a god damn break. Does he have the potential to get injured? Sure, but not let's act like it is some forgone conclusion or anything even close to that:

Observe:

2009: 207 IP
2010: 183.2 IP
2011:60.1 IP
2012:191.1 P

Is JJ not getting all of his starts per year or is he a less than 6 innings a game pitcher? 32-34 starts a year should get the pitcher 220 innings?

2010 he had 28 starts and 31 this year.

You say he is an ace yet expect that he will sigh for number two money at a less than ideal contract length and money for him. You expect the Marlins to trade for him for a low level high ceiling prospect and throw ins. For the money that would still be about 15% of the payroll you would need a spot starter and a pitcher to get you through the seventh along with your set up man and closer. That sounds like a trade that will not happen, a signing that will not happen and a need for a very good bullpen.

He has Ace potential, but his injury issues (which sort of limits his true max dollar potential)

I'm not sure why he wouldn't think about taking a 4 year 75 mil extension, heck, even if you have to up it to 5/90 I think the Twins should do it. The guys getting 100 mil deals are the ones who have stayed healthy over the past 3-4 years.

He did make it 7+ IP in 13 of his starts last year, obviously you would want more than that but some of that could be him shaking off rust (he struggled early out of the gate)

The Marlins would trade him for a prospect package, look at what Greinke and other top pitchers brought back recently, teams aren't willing to give up a ton to get pitchers on one year contracts these days, Rosario is a top 50 prospect, and you can add in a couple other prospects as well (someone in the 8-10 range and someone in the 15-20 range) The Marlins would definitely consider pulling the trigger on that.

Originally Posted by old nurse

You say he is an ace yet expect that he will sigh for number two money at a less than ideal contract length and money for him. You expect the Marlins to trade for him for a low level high ceiling prospect and throw ins. For the money that would still be about 15% of the payroll you would need a spot starter and a pitcher to get you through the seventh along with your set up man and closer. That sounds like a trade that will not happen, a signing that will not happen and a need for a very good bullpen.

Exactly. Like I said earlier, it took Hanley to get Josh Beckett moved. I would almost guarantee it takes Sano to get Johnson moved. The Marlins had huge reported offers this summer and didn't move him, so I doubt they'll move him without a big return.

The twins are flush with outfielders, what do you expect to get in return for one of them that would be better than a number 2 starter? And how many number 2 starters are even on the planet? These decisions are not just about the specific people in one deal, but also what you have int the org.

[ Point is, starting pitching is more valuable on the market than outfielders.[/QUOTE]

What we need is a GM that would trade us a quality starting pitcher (and perhaps a solid shortstop) for a corner outfielder. But, alas, no such GM could ever exist...

The Trade Rosario crowd better stick around until 2015 to see if he is a MLB second baseman . . . if so . . . yikes, the Twins would have made yet another decisively stupid decision regarding their middle infield.

Anyway, Shields for Span, Swarzak, and Hermsen might get it done. And if you are willing to trade Span, then you should be willing to add those other two as well.

Revere is tradeable, but only if you are talking about adding a Berrios and Summers in there as well.

The Twins can't trade away middle infielders with the potential to be better than replacement level. God knows we only see those guys about once every 15 years.

Originally Posted by biggentleben

Exactly. Like I said earlier, it took Hanley to get Josh Beckett moved. I would almost guarantee it takes Sano to get Johnson moved. The Marlins had huge reported offers this summer and didn't move him, so I doubt they'll move him without a big return.

That trade was several years ago, the way teams trade prospects has changed quite a bit, just look at the Grienke etc moves.

Originally Posted by Shane Wahl

The Trade Rosario crowd better stick around until 2015 to see if he is a MLB second baseman . . . if so . . . yikes, the Twins would have made yet another decisively stupid decision regarding their middle infield.

Anyway, Shields for Span, Swarzak, and Hermsen might get it done. And if you are willing to trade Span, then you should be willing to add those other two as well.

Revere is tradeable, but only if you are talking about adding a Berrios and Summers in there as well.

Swarzak. Has. No. Value.

Originally Posted by jorgenswest

These two performed among the top 25 pitchers last year.

Pitchers the caliber of Johnson and Shields return top 50 prospects. That's Sano territory.

Thats what im saying. People on this board are like we can just give them Revere and Hendriks for Josh Johnson< That makes me laugh. The Marlins in no way will sell low on this guy. Odds are they will want some young stud pitcher in the minors in return....we dont have that. Shields would require Span and a top prospect.

Originally Posted by biggentleben

Originally Posted by old nurse

You say he is an ace yet expect that he will sigh for number two money at a less than ideal contract length and money for him. You expect the Marlins to trade for him for a low level high ceiling prospect and throw ins. For the money that would still be about 15% of the payroll you would need a spot starter and a pitcher to get you through the seventh along with your set up man and closer. That sounds like a trade that will not happen, a signing that will not happen and a need for a very good bullpen.

Exactly. Like I said earlier, it took Hanley to get Josh Beckett moved. I would almost guarantee it takes Sano to get Johnson moved. The Marlins had huge reported offers this summer and didn't move him, so I doubt they'll move him without a big return.

It took Gomez and Humber to get Johan...

Originally Posted by notoriousgod71

Originally Posted by biggentleben

Originally Posted by old nurse

You say he is an ace yet expect that he will sigh for number two money at a less than ideal contract length and money for him. You expect the Marlins to trade for him for a low level high ceiling prospect and throw ins. For the money that would still be about 15% of the payroll you would need a spot starter and a pitcher to get you through the seventh along with your set up man and closer. That sounds like a trade that will not happen, a signing that will not happen and a need for a very good bullpen.

Exactly. Like I said earlier, it took Hanley to get Josh Beckett moved. I would almost guarantee it takes Sano to get Johnson moved. The Marlins had huge reported offers this summer and didn't move him, so I doubt they'll move him without a big return.

It took Gomez and Humber to get Johan...

DING DING DING! And Johan had a long term contract in place before they accepted the trade AND Johan was the best pitcher in all of baseball.

Originally Posted by notoriousgod71

Originally Posted by biggentleben

Originally Posted by old nurse

You say he is an ace yet expect that he will sigh for number two money at a less than ideal contract length and money for him. You expect the Marlins to trade for him for a low level high ceiling prospect and throw ins. For the money that would still be about 15% of the payroll you would need a spot starter and a pitcher to get you through the seventh along with your set up man and closer. That sounds like a trade that will not happen, a signing that will not happen and a need for a very good bullpen.

Dont remind me....only the twins....

Exactly. Like I said earlier, it took Hanley to get Josh Beckett moved. I would almost guarantee it takes Sano to get Johnson moved. The Marlins had huge reported offers this summer and didn't move him, so I doubt they'll move him without a big return.

It took Gomez and Humber to get Johan...

dont remind me...only the twins....