Thread: Josh Johnson

Originally Posted by AllhopeisgoneMNTWINS

Originally Posted by notoriousgod71

Originally Posted by biggentleben

Originally Posted by old nurse

You say he is an ace yet expect that he will sigh for number two money at a less than ideal contract length and money for him. You expect the Marlins to trade for him for a low level high ceiling prospect and throw ins. For the money that would still be about 15% of the payroll you would need a spot starter and a pitcher to get you through the seventh along with your set up man and closer. That sounds like a trade that will not happen, a signing that will not happen and a need for a very good bullpen.

Dont remind me....only the twins....

Exactly. Like I said earlier, it took Hanley to get Josh Beckett moved. I would almost guarantee it takes Sano to get Johnson moved. The Marlins had huge reported offers this summer and didn't move him, so I doubt they'll move him without a big return.

It took Gomez and Humber to get Johan...

dont remind me...only the twins....

You act like Gomez is the only prospect to never work out, anyone remember the centerpiece of that Sabathia deal? LaPorta...think the Brewers are missing him so much?

Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp

Originally Posted by CharacterGroove

I would trade Span/Revere and a prospect for Johnson even if the chance of getting him to sign an extension is slim to none.

The problem is that if you trade the farm for one year of Josh Johnson, you haven't stopped the bleeding. You've simply postponed it for one season, after which you'll be worse off than you were before that point.

Well, that doesn't make sense to me. By stopping the bleading I mean fielding a competitive club in 2013. I believe Johnson furthers that effort more than Span/Revere (and Prospect X). By 2014 I don't expect the cupboard to be bare.

But who X is matters to me. No Sano, Buxton, Barrios, etc. I don't want to mortgage the future for one year. But of course it's going to take one or more good players to get Johnson - or any worthwhile starter in a trade.

Again, the devil's in the details, but you don't play this game to have the best team 2-3 years down the road on paper. You play to win championships. This year taught us we've got a decent foundation with horrible starting pitching. Let's do something about it.

Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave

Originally Posted by notoriousgod71

It took Gomez and Humber to get Johan...

DING DING DING! And Johan had a long term contract in place before they accepted the trade AND Johan was the best pitcher in all of baseball.

The Twins also had little leverage because of Johan's no trade clause. The Mets were bidding against themselves. I'm not sure that JJ has the same kind of leverage that Johan had, so I'm not sure that the Marlins will be forced to take a mediocre package.

Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave

Originally Posted by biggentleben

Exactly. Like I said earlier, it took Hanley to get Josh Beckett moved. I would almost guarantee it takes Sano to get Johnson moved. The Marlins had huge reported offers this summer and didn't move him, so I doubt they'll move him without a big return.

That trade was several years ago, the way teams trade prospects has changed quite a bit, just look at the Grienke etc moves.

Yep, and they were still asking for similar return to move Johnson this summer. Some teams have changed, others have not...

Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave

Originally Posted by notoriousgod71

Originally Posted by biggentleben

Originally Posted by old nurse

You say he is an ace yet expect that he will sigh for number two money at a less than ideal contract length and money for him. You expect the Marlins to trade for him for a low level high ceiling prospect and throw ins. For the money that would still be about 15% of the payroll you would need a spot starter and a pitcher to get you through the seventh along with your set up man and closer. That sounds like a trade that will not happen, a signing that will not happen and a need for a very good bullpen.

Exactly. Like I said earlier, it took Hanley to get Josh Beckett moved. I would almost guarantee it takes Sano to get Johnson moved. The Marlins had huge reported offers this summer and didn't move him, so I doubt they'll move him without a big return.

It took Gomez and Humber to get Johan...

DING DING DING! And Johan had a long term contract in place before they accepted the trade AND Johan was the best pitcher in all of baseball.

2 prospects in BA's top 52, yet another in the top 100, and another in the Mets top 10 for Baseball America. Yep, not valuable prospects at all!

Originally Posted by biggentleben

Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave

Originally Posted by notoriousgod71

Originally Posted by biggentleben

Originally Posted by old nurse

You say he is an ace yet expect that he will sigh for number two money at a less than ideal contract length and money for him. You expect the Marlins to trade for him for a low level high ceiling prospect and throw ins. For the money that would still be about 15% of the payroll you would need a spot starter and a pitcher to get you through the seventh along with your set up man and closer. That sounds like a trade that will not happen, a signing that will not happen and a need for a very good bullpen.

Exactly. Like I said earlier, it took Hanley to get Josh Beckett moved. I would almost guarantee it takes Sano to get Johnson moved. The Marlins had huge reported offers this summer and didn't move him, so I doubt they'll move him without a big return.

It took Gomez and Humber to get Johan...

DING DING DING! And Johan had a long term contract in place before they accepted the trade AND Johan was the best pitcher in all of baseball.

2 prospects in BA's top 52, yet another in the top 100, and another in the Mets top 10 for Baseball America. Yep, not valuable prospects at all!

Gotta love Dave for his persistence. In the Grienke and Sanchez deals it took multiple AA pitchers as well as a near major league ready prospect to get the deals done. I don't think Hirschfield, Darnell and or Hermsen is exactly going to cause teams to drool.

Originally Posted by biggentleben

Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave

Originally Posted by notoriousgod71

Originally Posted by biggentleben

Originally Posted by old nurse

You say he is an ace yet expect that he will sigh for number two money at a less than ideal contract length and money for him. You expect the Marlins to trade for him for a low level high ceiling prospect and throw ins. For the money that would still be about 15% of the payroll you would need a spot starter and a pitcher to get you through the seventh along with your set up man and closer. That sounds like a trade that will not happen, a signing that will not happen and a need for a very good bullpen.

Exactly. Like I said earlier, it took Hanley to get Josh Beckett moved. I would almost guarantee it takes Sano to get Johnson moved. The Marlins had huge reported offers this summer and didn't move him, so I doubt they'll move him without a big return.

It took Gomez and Humber to get Johan...

DING DING DING! And Johan had a long term contract in place before they accepted the trade AND Johan was the best pitcher in all of baseball.

2 prospects in BA's top 52, yet another in the top 100, and another in the Mets top 10 for Baseball America. Yep, not valuable prospects at all!

Johan was also the best pitcher in the game and was basically coming off 3 straight Cy Young seasons, the Mets had a contract in place with him. I like Johnson, but he is nowhere near that caliber, so one can assume it won't take 2 top 50 and 1 top 100. 1 top 50 (Rosario) along with a guy in the top ten of the twins prospects along with a C+ prospect should be enough to get it done.

Of course the Marlins were asking a high price this season, they had no reason not to (just like the Twins did with Span/Willingham/Morneau) that doesn't mean the price doesn't come down, especially heading into a walk season.

It doesn't matter that the two pitchers they got were in AA, they just weren't very good prospects (no where near the top 100 and IIRC one wasn't even in the Angels top ten, which was a weak ass system anyways), Segura was a nice prospect (#55) right where Rosario will most likely be!

So again, Rosario+one top ten prospect in system+C/C+ prospect is basically the exact same package the Cardinals gave up.

If the Marlins are ONLY looking for pitching back then yeah, we are prob in trouble, but nothing has been said of their demands as of yet, you gotta look at it as a value standpoint not a "Well X team traded two AA pitchers for Y player" every team is different.

Who knows what the Marlins want, their team is in shambles right now, im pretty sure they could use a bit of everything. So if you look at it, if they go with a complete rebuilding project they will probably want some high end prospects both pitchers and hitters. Like you said if they want pitchers we are not getting Johnson, but if they do want a hitter we got plenty of hitting prospects to spare. IF we do trade for Johnson...there better be an extension that comes along with it.

Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave

Equally as likely? Give me a god damn break. Does he have the potential to get injured? Sure, but not let's act like it is some forgone conclusion or anything even close to that:

First off - what the hell with the attitude? Considering some of the ridiculous notions you're floating around here I wouldn't suggest throwing stones Mr. Glass House. Second - Pseudo was claiming we could get equal of better value for him at the deadline as we can in the offseason. Given this is already a questionable premise, I'd say that, yes, it is just as like that something would go wrong and he'd be less valuable than what we dealt before the season.

If you don't want to settle on just the injury risk - how about the career ERA a run higher on the road? The transition from the NL to the AL?

Does "Spirit of Vodka Dave" have a no trade clause? He seems to be a clubhouse chemistry detriment. What can Twins Daily get for him?

Did this spin out of control or what? I am sorry for trying to disprove everything Dave said on for trading for Josh Johnson. Perhaps I need a spirit of some sort like Vodka to make sense of Dave's fascination with a pitcher that does not have a track record of pitching 200 innings a year, much less 7 innings a game. His rental price for one year would be one of the few people plating middle infield in the system with a high upside. Every trade for starting pitching has given up potential starters at a high level. I give up.

I like Josh Johnson as a trade target for the Twins, even with the questions of his injury history and what the Marlins would want in return. Someone else may have mentioned elsewhere in this thread, but I think he has one year left on his deal at a fairly significant salary? ($10-plus million?). That alone may be enough to make the Twins hesitant to seriously consider a trade for him.

Clearly we need to cap the embedded quoting thing, or use a different graphical mechanism, because this thread is unreadable.

That said, I wonder if Oakland would look to move this Anderson fellow.

Originally Posted by old nurse

Did this spin out of control or what? I am sorry for trying to disprove everything Dave said on for trading for Josh Johnson. Perhaps I need a spirit of some sort like Vodka to make sense of Dave's fascination with a pitcher that does not have a track record of pitching 200 innings a year, much less 7 innings a game. His rental price for one year would be one of the few people plating middle infield in the system with a high upside. Every trade for starting pitching has given up potential starters at a high level. I give up.

Look, it depends on price, something everyone agrees on. And you're drawing an arbitrary and disingenuous line with the 200 innings, as has been mentioned JJ was in 10% of that three out of four seasons.

Whether or not it's doable is debatable, but Josh Johnson is exactly the type of pitcher the Twins should be looking to add to their rotation, short and long term.

Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave

Marlins are in complete rebuilding mode at this point.

And the twins aren't?

trading anything significant in the farm system for Johnson is silly. He's pretty much the last pitcher that I would trade something significant for. He's already had TJ. He had a season ending arm injury in 2011. He's missed a few starts in other seasons due to arm issues. Some say that he has bad mechanics. Please avoid.

Shields might not be an ace but he's a workhorse that gives a team a chance to win and he's signed for two years. I'm all about this trade if Span or Willingham can be the centerpiece. If it takes a good prospect then I would probably pass.

Hanson is another interesting target since I like his upside and he has 3 arb years left.

If expecting your "Ace" to pitch every 5th day and to go into the 7th inning arbitrary, then 200 inning is an arbitrary number. If you are paying someone 13 or more per year to pitch, I really don't think the expectation is unreasonable.. If your starters can't go but six innings then you start to need 8 people in the bullpen. Do the math.

Originally Posted by USAFChief

Whether or not it's doable is debatable, but Josh Johnson is exactly the type of pitcher the Twins should be looking to add to their rotation, short and long term.

In ability yes. In cost versus durability no. See Carl Pavano 2012.

I like Johnson but my vote is for Shields over Johnson. Shields may not be as good as Johnson but he will help the bullpen be more effective by pitching deeper into games and getting them more rest once every 5 days.