Thread: Josh Johnson

Guys, we've talked about truncating your posts. We don't find it amusing that some of you are intentionally making the forum more difficult to read.

Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp

Guys, we've talked about truncating your posts. We don't find it amusing that some of you are intentionally making the forum more difficult to read.

I don't think anyone is doing it intentionally, just automatically cap it at 3 levels or whatever.

Originally Posted by Brandon

I like Johnson but my vote is for Shields over Johnson. Shields may not be as good as Johnson but he will help the bullpen be more effective by pitching deeper into games and getting them more rest once every 5 days.

Again, I would rather have Shields then Johnson, the reason I am advocating Johnson is because the price will be significantly cheaper. We aren't getting Shields for Span, that deal makes zero sense for the Rays. Span could potentially be a part of it, but it will be Span+ significant prospect(s). Ditto with Hanson.

Originally Posted by old nurse

Did this spin out of control or what? I am sorry for trying to disprove everything Dave said on for trading for Josh Johnson. Perhaps I need a spirit of some sort like Vodka to make sense of Dave's fascination with a pitcher that does not have a track record of pitching 200 innings a year, much less 7 innings a game. His rental price for one year would be one of the few people plating middle infield in the system with a high upside. Every trade for starting pitching has given up potential starters at a high level. I give up.

He was coming off a major arm injury this year, it wasn't exactly shocking that he didn't reach 200 IP, however you act like he is only starting 20 games a year for 120 IP, he has come pretty close to 200 IP (or even more) in his last 3 healthy years. (3 of the past 4 years)

Also, I never have once advocated just picking him up from one year, if you would go back and read I have said they should trade for him and work out a contract extension. If he doesn't want to do the contract extension then I would pull Rosario from the deal and the deal would probably fall apart.

Yes, sometimes it sucks giving up prospects, but I would gladly trade a guy like Rosario for 5 years of an ace like pitcher in Josh Johnson, we complain that we haven't had a legit MI in a long time, well we haven't exactly had a lot of aces in the past 20 years as well, I can only count one (Johan) unless you want to claim Liriano was an "ace" for that half year before he got injured.

The reason I bring up Rosario is because you would be trading him at his high point as a prospect, it still isn't a 100% that he is even able to stick at 2B and he still has several steps to go.

As far as the "need high level pitching in return" that really is irrelevant because we don't know what the Marlins want in return. The two main pieces the Twins got back for Santana were a low level pitcher in Guerra and a CF. Humber and Mulvey were both "higher level" but both projected to be #5's even at the time, I'm sure if the Marlins really wanted a guy like that they could pry loose someone from the Twins organization.

Why would you want to trade Eddie Rosario to get him? A high-rated prospect who plays middle infield, and he's the one you want to trade? Really? If you're building a trade around one of our top prospects you go with Arcia or Hicks. We need to clear outfielders from our system, and those guys are higher rated players than Rosario (plus closer to big-league ready), so maybe you get a little more back in return or have to throw in less of the down-level prospects as a result.

A healthy Josh Johnson signed to an extension would be awesome, and worth prospects to do it. Josh Johnson with only one year left on his contract is a tough call, and I'm not sure I'd want to offer up a lot. They need pitching for next year badly, though, or attendance is going to plummet.

How does the free agent thing work now? If he was on our roster before the season started, we would then be eligible for the extra pick if he left as a free agent? But we would have to offer him arbitration also, to be eligible for that pick?

Originally Posted by kab21

Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave

Marlins are in complete rebuilding mode at this point.

And the twins aren't?

The Marlins are going to go through a complete rebuilding effort, all indications are the Twins will not, otherwise why bring back Gardy/Anderson for one more year?

Also keep in mind, Marlins fans are apathetic no matter what, if the Twins want to keep butts in the seats at Target Field they realize they need to turn things around sooner then later.

I'm not saying gut the entire farm system for a win now campaign, but this team needs top of the rotation pitching now and moving forward. There are three ways to get that.
1. Overspend in free agency- Probably not the best idea, since you will also often times lose a draft pick and end up bidding against Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers, Angels etc.
2. Draft/Bring up through your system- Other then Berrios the Twins don't have a true "ace" or "ace-lite" pitcher in the minors at this point, and he is at least 3-4 years away. I like Gibson as a #2 but you need more than that, everyone else projects as a#3-#5.
3. Trade for one- A guy like Shields I still maintain is going to cost significantly more then Johnson and more then the Twins will want to give up. So trading Rosario sucks, but if you can get 4-5 years of Josh Johnson back for it I think you have to consider making that move, otherwise the Twins will literally go into 2013 with a #3 type pitcher as their ace.

Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave

Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp

Guys, we've talked about truncating your posts. We don't find it amusing that some of you are intentionally making the forum more difficult to read.

I don't think anyone is doing it intentionally, just automatically cap it at 3 levels or whatever.

I'd have to go write a plug-in to cap embedded quotes. If there was a setting to do it, I would have done it long ago. Either people can monitor their own posts or we can go back to one quote per post. Those are the options.

Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp

Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave

Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp

Guys, we've talked about truncating your posts. We don't find it amusing that some of you are intentionally making the forum more difficult to read.

I don't think anyone is doing it intentionally, just automatically cap it at 3 levels or whatever.

I'd have to go write a plug-in to cap embedded quotes. If there was a setting to do it, I would have done it long ago. Either people can monitor their own posts or we can go back to one quote per post. Those are the options.

well...better get to work

Just FYI: it's near impossible to delete the quotes on an iphone/ipad, its not as cumbersome on a computer but still a pain.

Originally Posted by ericchri

Why would you want to trade Eddie Rosario to get him? A high-rated prospect who plays middle infield, and he's the one you want to trade? Really? If you're building a trade around one of our top prospects you go with Arcia or Hicks. We need to clear outfielders from our system, and those guys are higher rated players than Rosario (plus closer to big-league ready), so maybe you get a little more back in return or have to throw in less of the down-level prospects as a result.

A healthy Josh Johnson signed to an extension would be awesome, and worth prospects to do it. Josh Johnson with only one year left on his contract is a tough call, and I'm not sure I'd want to offer up a lot. They need pitching for next year badly, though, or attendance is going to plummet.

How does the free agent thing work now? If he was on our roster before the season started, we would then be eligible for the extra pick if he left as a free agent? But we would have to offer him arbitration also, to be eligible for that pick?

I understand your point about Hicks/Arcia, but I disagree, to me both of those guys have much higher upsides then Rosario, Arcia with his bat and Hicks all around. I know we are all giddy about Rosario being the solution at 2B, but he is still far away from the majors and it still isn't written in stone that he will stick to 2B, wasn't it said that one of the reasons why they moved him from the OF is that they weren't sure his bat would play out there? That is a bit of a warning sign, no? I get not wanting to trade a guy who has potential at MI, but keep in mind we do have a few other decent MI prospects these days as well in Goodrum and Levi Michael (Dozier still has a bit of potenital as well IMO) All this to say basically, I would gladly give up Rosario before any of Arcia/Hicks etc.

I'm pretty sure that if Johnson was on our roster opening day he would be eligible for the extra pick, I think it only applies to players traded in season, but I could be wrong.

Keep in mind, there is no reason why they couldn't discuss an extension with him prior to the trade going through, if they can't get it done before the trade they can at least get a good sense of what it would cost and get it done prior to the season.

3 is probably 1 too many.

Pig: go back to one quoted post in a reply. Please.

Originally Posted by PseudoSABR

Clearly we need to cap the embedded quoting thing, or use a different graphical mechanism, because this thread is unreadable.

That said, I wonder if Oakland would look to move this Anderson fellow.

It sure would be nice to get him. Billy Beane and Crew know there stuff when it comes to getting prospects in return for anything they trade. So Im guessing it would take more than what would be required to get Johnson or Shields.

Originally Posted by ericchri

How does the free agent thing work now? If he was on our roster before the season started, we would then be eligible for the extra pick if he left as a free agent? But we would have to offer him arbitration also, to be eligible for that pick?

He needs to be on the team as of opening day to be eligible, and you would need to offer him a qualifying offer, which is very different from arbitration. A qualifying offer level will be determined each season, but it's based on an average of the top 125 salaries for the previous season. For 2012, at the last time it was updated (early August by Buster Olney), it was going to take a $13.3M offer for one season for a qualifying offer. If the player accepts that, you pay them that amount for the next year or negotiate a longer term deal. If they reject that, then the team will be eligible for a compensatory draft pick. If the team does not make an offer up to the qualifying level or the player accepts the qualifying offer, there is no compensatory pick. If Johnson is hurt in 2013, it is highly doubtful he would get an estimated $13.7M after 2013 (current number for after 2013 in Olney's August article), so the Twins would be stuck with him at that number if they even offered that amount to him. So there's a fairly high chance that Josh Johnson would bring you back no picks in 2013, and there's a nonzero chance that Johnson provides you less WAR than Scott Baker (Baker earned 1.1 fWAR more in 2011 in a season where both missed time due to injury).

[QUOTE=SpiritofVodkaDave;57701]

Originally Posted by old nurse

As far as the "need high level pitching in return" that really is irrelevant because we don't know what the Marlins want in return. The two main pieces the Twins got back for Santana were a low level pitcher in Guerra and a CF. Humber and Mulvey were both "higher level" but both projected to be #5's even at the time, I'm sure if the Marlins really wanted a guy like that they could pry loose someone from the Twins organization.

Look at every trade made by a team moving a starting pitcher. They get pitching back. The Marlins are going to be different???
In only one year has Johnson ever pitched more than 200 ininngs. Only twice has he made more than 30 starts. For a team like the Twins he is not worth the risk. See Pavano's salary this year. There ought to be better risks out there than Johnson given his probable salary if signed to an extension. It wold be unrealistic to think he would bypass free agency for a contract that was less than what he is making now. I doubt there would be a hometown discount unless the Twins were playing at All Sports Stadium

Originally Posted by biggentleben

Originally Posted by ericchri

How does the free agent thing work now? If he was on our roster before the season started, we would then be eligible for the extra pick if he left as a free agent? But we would have to offer him arbitration also, to be eligible for that pick?

He needs to be on the team as of opening day to be eligible, and you would need to offer him a qualifying offer, which is very different from arbitration. A qualifying offer level will be determined each season, but it's based on an average of the top 125 salaries for the previous season. For 2012, at the last time it was updated (early August by Buster Olney), it was going to take a $13.3M offer for one season for a qualifying offer. If the player accepts that, you pay them that amount for the next year or negotiate a longer term deal. If they reject that, then the team will be eligible for a compensatory draft pick. If the team does not make an offer up to the qualifying level or the player accepts the qualifying offer, there is no compensatory pick. If Johnson is hurt in 2013, it is highly doubtful he would get an estimated $13.7M after 2013 (current number for after 2013 in Olney's August article), so the Twins would be stuck with him at that number if they even offered that amount to him. So there's a fairly high chance that Josh Johnson would bring you back no picks in 2013, and there's a nonzero chance that Johnson provides you less WAR than Scott Baker (Baker earned 1.1 fWAR more in 2011 in a season where both missed time due to injury).

Johnson has been "hurt" 1 of the past 4 years. I'm not sure what your point exactly is, by the way, why are you trolling Twins boards anyways? I thought you were a Braves fan?

Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave

Johnson has been "hurt" 1 of the past 4 years. I'm not sure what your point exactly is, by the way, why are you trolling Twins boards anyways? I thought you were a Braves fan?

You've been shown your "hurt" comment is incorrect, so that's not worth arguing.

I've been conversing with many on this board back to the days on ESPN, and I'd hardly consider what I do trolling. I also participate in a Mets message board as well, and though they're a rival, I've never once been accused of trolling on their site either. Holding fast to arguments that are continually proven false would be a much closer definition of trolling.

Originally Posted by biggentleben

Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave

Johnson has been "hurt" 1 of the past 4 years. I'm not sure what your point exactly is, by the way, why are you trolling Twins boards anyways? I thought you were a Braves fan?

You've been shown your "hurt" comment is incorrect, so that's not worth arguing.

I've been conversing with many on this board back to the days on ESPN, and I'd hardly consider what I do trolling. I also participate in a Mets message board as well, and though they're a rival, I've never once been accused of trolling on their site either. Holding fast to arguments that are continually proven false would be a much closer definition of trolling.

Ur trollface.

Originally Posted by old nurse

Look at every trade made by a team moving a starting pitcher. They get pitching back. The Marlins are going to be different???
In only one year has Johnson ever pitched more than 200 ininngs. Only twice has he made more than 30 starts. For a team like the Twins he is not worth the risk. See Pavano's salary this year. There ought to be better risks out there than Johnson given his probable salary if signed to an extension. It wold be unrealistic to think he would bypass free agency for a contract that was less than what he is making now. I doubt there would be a hometown discount unless the Twins were playing at All Sports Stadium

Then we can give them pitching back if they really want it, its just not going to be the center piece (much like the Greinke trade, Santana trade, Sanchez trade etc)

Also what on earth does Pavano have to do with Johnson?

[QUOTE=SpiritofVodkaDave;57817]

Originally Posted by old nurse

Also what on earth does Pavano have to do with Johnson?

Johnson has had less than half his seasons in the majors where he has made all of his starts. Call the reason why what you will. Those reasons will likely continue. As Johnson would take a huge chunk of the team's budget the Twins cannot afford the down time. The effect would be disasterous. If you cannot understand that concept look at Pavano. He missed a lot of time through his career. He had one healthy yearwith the Twins and was signed for longer term. With that money tied up in Pavano not pitching what did the Twins have as a replacement? Yes any player can go down with an injury, but why would you want someone with a track record of it? See 2007, 2008 and 2011 for Johnson.

3 of his past 4 seasons. 33, 31, 28 starts. Yes, that is not EVERY start but its not like he is missing huge chunks of time.

There is a huge difference between Johnson and Pavano, for one Johnson actually is able to strike people out and a top of the rotation type guy, Pavano was/is a back end of the rotation type guy.

Also Johnson was "hurt" in 2007/2008 because he was having Tommy John surgery. It's not like he was going on and off the disabled list for various aliments Pavano Yankee style.