Josh Johnson

Has been mentioned that the Marlins will most likely trade him this off-season and the Twins would be interested. He is owed 13.75 million this year and is a free agent after the season (would be a Type A most likely)

I think he is worth trying to get assuming we don't have to give up one of Hicks, Sano, Arcia, Gibson or Rosario. Wonder if they would be interested in Ben Revere+prospects

Johnson in the rotation instantly gives the team an ace, and if they could sign another decent FA or even Scott Baker you could be looking at a rotation of:
Johnson, Baker, Diamond, Gibson, Hendriks.

Not to shabby.

I'd push hard for a Shields for Span swap before going after Johnson. Given the current state of the Twins, I'm not crazy about the idea of giving up a prospect for one year of a starter.

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Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp

I'd push hard for a Shields for Span swap before going after Johnson. Given the current state of the Twins, I'm not crazy about the idea of giving up a prospect for one year of a starter.

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Well obviously I'd prefer Shields, but the asking price for Shields is going to be significantly higher then Johnson. The nice thing about Johnson is you could get him without having to give up two of your top prospects, and you also would have a whole year to work out an extension with him. Maybe he would be willing to do a tiny hometown discount?

Trade for him and offer him a 4 year 70 million dollar extension?

It would be a good time to "buy" on Johnson as his value isn't as high as it was pre injury, but the guy has legit ace stuff. I'd rather give up a couple prospects or players and give him 70 million rather then compete in free agency for an "ace" like Grienke or whatnot.

If he's open to an extension, I'd be far more open to the acquisition. I completely forgot that he's a Minnesota native.

I like the idea if he's open to an extension. Even though 2012 was a down year for him, his numbers were still pretty good. It's probably as close to buying low as you can get for a guy like him.

I didn't have time to type out all his numbers, but everyone here should know how to get to baseball reference anyway.

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Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp

I'd push hard for a Shields for Span swap before going after Johnson. Given the current state of the Twins, I'm not crazy about the idea of giving up a prospect for one year of a starter.

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It's going to take more than Span to get Shields.

Can't really think he'd be cheap probably at least 2 of our top 10 prospects or more. Giving up multiple top prospects with the chance he walks after the season is not a typical TR type deal.
I think he moved away when he was very young but he could give us a discount like Mauer did!
I still think a deal centered around Span and Shields makes the most sense. Fills a need for them he is from Tampa and it saves them a bunch of money.

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Originally Posted by Boom Boom

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Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp

I'd push hard for a Shields for Span swap before going after Johnson. Given the current state of the Twins, I'm not crazy about the idea of giving up a prospect for one year of a starter.

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It's going to take more than Span to get Shields.

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It shouldn't take much more and if it does, pass. Tampa Bay would get three years of Span for approximately the same money that the Twins would get Shields for two years. Outside of a great 2011, Shields is not an "ace" by any stretch of the imagination. He's good but not great. I don't know why forum posters are so high on the guy... He's basically a healthy Scott Baker that strikes out half a guy more every nine innings.

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Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp

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Originally Posted by Boom Boom

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Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp

I'd push hard for a Shields for Span swap before going after Johnson. Given the current state of the Twins, I'm not crazy about the idea of giving up a prospect for one year of a starter.

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It's going to take more than Span to get Shields.

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It shouldn't take much more and if it does, pass. Tampa Bay would get three years of Span for approximately the same money that the Twins would get Shields for two years. Outside of a great 2011, Shields is not an "ace" by any stretch of the imagination. He's good but not great. I don't know why forum posters are so high on the guy... He's basically a healthy Scott Baker that strikes out half a guy more every nine innings.

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It would probably take Span, and maybe a couple throw-in pitchers that the Rays will somehow be able to make more productive (like Swarzak and Duensing?). If they ask for Span and a top prospect, then gods no. Yeah, a healthy Scott Baker who strikes out those half a batter more in "the toughest division in the AL."

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Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp

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Originally Posted by Boom Boom

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Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp

I'd push hard for a Shields for Span swap before going after Johnson. Given the current state of the Twins, I'm not crazy about the idea of giving up a prospect for one year of a starter.

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It's going to take more than Span to get Shields.

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It shouldn't take much more and if it does, pass. Tampa Bay would get three years of Span for approximately the same money that the Twins would get Shields for two years. Outside of a great 2011, Shields is not an "ace" by any stretch of the imagination. He's good but not great. I don't know why forum posters are so high on the guy... He's basically a healthy Scott Baker that strikes out half a guy more every nine innings.

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So, he's Scott Baker, except significantly better than Scott Baker?

Do you think other teams would be willing to give up more than Span to get Shields? Because if they would, there's no reason for the Rays to trade Shields for Span and maybe a throw-in.

Shields has an option on his contract for $12 million in 2014, and it's not out of the realm of possibility that whichever team has him at that point would gladly pick that option up. Span likely won't ever earn more than $10 million in a season. Point is, starting pitching is more valuable on the market than outfielders.

I would roll the die on Johnson. Given his health and salary, it should take Revere or something like that to get him, something I would do with Hicks and Arcia available.

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Originally Posted by Boom Boom

So, he's Scott Baker, except significantly better than Scott Baker?

Do you think other teams would be willing to give up more than Span to get Shields? Because if they would, there's no reason for the Rays to trade Shields for Span and maybe a throw-in.

Shields has an option on his contract for $12 million in 2014, and it's not out of the realm of possibility that whichever team has him at that point would gladly pick that option up. Span likely won't ever earn more than $10 million in a season. Point is, starting pitching is more valuable on the market than outfielders.

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That's just it... He's not better than Baker. Look at their ERA+, WHIP, BB/9, K/9, etc. They're basically the same pitcher with a little variance here and there. Shields is healthier. That's the difference. It's a pretty big difference but that's why Baker is going to get ~$3m this season while Shields is going to get over $20m over the next two.

Like I said, the Rays would get three years of Span for the same money as two years of Shields. both have an option for their last season. Is Shields so much more valuable than Span that he's worth significantly more than that three-for-two-years swap? I don't think so and the numbers agree with me.

The goal this offseason has to be to improve the starting rotation. If we can add a Shields or Josh Johnson type pitcher without selling absoluting everything, then we have to do it. If we have to give up Span to get him then so be it. I honestly think Hicks might be ready to take over in CF by mid season next year. Revere could handle things in CF until then.

If we could get Shields or Johnson and then add someone like Edwin Jackson, we would be looking pretty decent SP-wise. I'm guessing Morneau could be traded this offseason if the Twins want to free up some payroll for SP.

No reason to compare him to Baker. Baker is coming off TJ surgery, no way to tell if he will be any good after that, some are some aren't. He likely won't be back (starting) until May or June and he isn't under contract unless you pick up the option.
Baker is a non factor until he proves he can pitch again and he is signed.
Shields would likely be a top 5 starter in the Central. Besides Verlander and Sales who is better?

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Originally Posted by Winston Smith

No reason to compare him to Baker. Baker is coming off TJ surgery, no way to tell if he will be any good after that, some are some aren't. He likely won't be back (starting) until May or June and he isn't under contract unless you pick up the option.
Baker is a non factor until he proves he can pitch again and he is signed.
Shields would likely be a top 5 starter in the Central. Besides Verlander and Sales who is better?

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My point with the Baker comp is not to compare 2012 Baker versus 2012 Shields. It's to compare how both pitchers have actually performed over the course of their careers. People seem to take the attitude that Shields is a number one pitcher but often say Baker is nothing more than a number three. Reality doesn't jibe with that evaluation. Both pitchers (when healthy) are nearly identical. And they both have ceilings somewhere in the "very good number two pitcher" range with the average year coming in at "decent number two pitcher".

Off the top of my head, I'd take Scherzer before Shields, no question.

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Originally Posted by Boom Boom

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Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp

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Originally Posted by Boom Boom

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Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp

I'd push hard for a Shields for Span swap before going after Johnson. Given the current state of the Twins, I'm not crazy about the idea of giving up a prospect for one year of a starter.

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It's going to take more than Span to get Shields.

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It shouldn't take much more and if it does, pass. Tampa Bay would get three years of Span for approximately the same money that the Twins would get Shields for two years. Outside of a great 2011, Shields is not an "ace" by any stretch of the imagination. He's good but not great. I don't know why forum posters are so high on the guy... He's basically a healthy Scott Baker that strikes out half a guy more every nine innings.

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So, he's Scott Baker, except significantly better than Scott Baker?

Do you think other teams would be willing to give up more than Span to get Shields? Because if they would, there's no reason for the Rays to trade Shields for Span and maybe a throw-in.

Shields has an option on his contract for $12 million in 2014, and it's not out of the realm of possibility that whichever team has him at that point would gladly pick that option up. Span likely won't ever earn more than $10 million in a season. Point is, starting pitching is more valuable on the market than outfielders.

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Considering Tampa's dreadful offense, if they were not going to trade pitching to make a playoff run they were so close to last season, why would they now? What they value Shields as would be a high value that Brock would disagree with. More than likely what the Rays want, the Twins did not have then. It would be more like Arcia and Benson with a good pitching prospect then a Span. Look at their trading history.
A decent prospect with a few low A guys could get you a Johnson. I do not know if the Twins would do that kind of trade.

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Originally Posted by J-Dog Dungan

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Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp

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Originally Posted by Boom Boom

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Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp

I'd push hard for a Shields for Span swap before going after Johnson. Given the current state of the Twins, I'm not crazy about the idea of giving up a prospect for one year of a starter.

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It's going to take more than Span to get Shields.

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It shouldn't take much more and if it does, pass. Tampa Bay would get three years of Span for approximately the same money that the Twins would get Shields for two years. Outside of a great 2011, Shields is not an "ace" by any stretch of the imagination. He's good but not great. I don't know why forum posters are so high on the guy... He's basically a healthy Scott Baker that strikes out half a guy more every nine innings.

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It would probably take Span, and maybe a couple throw-in pitchers that the Rays will somehow be able to make more productive (like Swarzak and Duensing?). If they ask for Span and a top prospect, then gods no. Yeah, a healthy Scott Baker who strikes out those half a batter more in "the toughest division in the AL."

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Swarzak and Duensing have zero trade value. It would take Span+ a top prospect at least. Top of rotation starters who have more than one year left cost an arm and a leg. (unless you are the Twins and give up Garza for Delmon)

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Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp

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Originally Posted by Boom Boom

So, he's Scott Baker, except significantly better than Scott Baker?

Do you think other teams would be willing to give up more than Span to get Shields? Because if they would, there's no reason for the Rays to trade Shields for Span and maybe a throw-in.

Shields has an option on his contract for $12 million in 2014, and it's not out of the realm of possibility that whichever team has him at that point would gladly pick that option up. Span likely won't ever earn more than $10 million in a season. Point is, starting pitching is more valuable on the market than outfielders.

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That's just it... He's not better than Baker. Look at their ERA+, WHIP, BB/9, K/9, etc. They're basically the same pitcher with a little variance here and there. Shields is healthier. That's the difference. It's a pretty big difference but that's why Baker is going to get ~$3m this season while Shields is going to get over $20m over the next two.

Like I said, the Rays would get three years of Span for the same money as two years of Shields. both have an option for their last season. Is Shields so much more valuable than Span that he's worth significantly more than that three-for-two-years swap? I don't think so and the numbers agree with me.

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Shields also pitches against the AL East, Baker pitched against the AL Central. Huge difference.

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Originally Posted by Winston Smith

Can't really think he'd be cheap probably at least 2 of our top 10 prospects or more. Giving up multiple top prospects with the chance he walks after the season is not a typical TR type deal.
I think he moved away when he was very young but he could give us a discount like Mauer did!
I still think a deal centered around Span and Shields makes the most sense. Fills a need for them he is from Tampa and it saves them a bunch of money.

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I would give up two of our top 10 prospects for him. (No Hicks, Sano, Arcia, Buxton, Gibson) Rosario would be tough to part with, but would gladly give him up for a legitimate Ace.

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Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp

People seem to take the attitude that Shields is a number one pitcher but often say Baker is nothing more than a number three. Reality doesn't jibe with that evaluation. Both pitchers (when healthy) are nearly identical.

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Here's the thing: his ability to stay healthy is what MAKES Shields a borderline No. 1. The guy hasn't missed a start in six years. Teams value that kind of reliability very highly. You may be right that he's not likely to be an upper-echelon ace in terms of production (though over the last two years he basically has been) but I suspect he's exactly what the Twins are looking for in a guy who could lead their unstable rotation.