Thread: Twins will seek 'affordable pitchers'

I understand the risk, but I see no other path. You rarely win by only doing safe things. Baker will not be ready for several months into the season. If signing one free agent is a good idea, why is signing two a had idea?

kab21: You forgot 2011 and 2012. Your original comment was he was basing things on one year, yet you don't post the last two.

I guess it depends on how far back you wanna go. I went back 4 years...the most recent times...trying to show it's been poor 3 of the last 4 seasons, not just one. That change was noticeably needed before just this last season. One could have looked at 2010 objectively and said a couple guys had career seasons...unusual season for them...like Pavano and Liriano for instance, and decided it was best not to put too much credence into those seasons, expecting the same results.

As far as '04-'07 seasons go, without Johan (one guy) where would that rotation have ranked? Truth is, we haven't done well in pitching for awhile...neither in drafting or developing, and it's shown...and not just for one season

last season i thought it would have been a good idea to pick up Bedard, this season I feel the same way.
I feel that an affordable "twins quality" rotation would be
Edwin Jackson, Scott Diamond, Kyle Gibson, Erik Bedard, Liam Hendriks.
right, left, right, left, right.
This isnt that expensive at all, you still have Deduno, De Vries, Baker (when healthy), Vasquez, and others as backups.

For the offense I think you could trade Span and a few prospects for Starlin Castro to help our infield, Cubs want to trade him and he will eventually mature he is a guy the twins can and should target.

Originally Posted by mike wants wins

What are those stats?

Years and dollars.

Originally Posted by Chance

For the offense I think you could trade Span and a few prospects for Starlin Castro to help our infield, Cubs want to trade him and he will eventually mature he is a guy the twins can and should target.

In my opinion, if we are trading Span, Revere, Willingham or Morneau, we have to get pitching.

And can you imagine Gardy having the biggest error machine in baseball on his team? Gardy would destroy him. I'm also not sure we have the right people to develop him into being the type of player his potential would suggest he is?

Originally Posted by ThePuck

kab21: You forgot 2011 and 2012. Your original comment was he was basing things on one year, yet you don't post the last two.

I guess it depends on how far back you wanna go. I went back 4 years...the most recent times...trying to show it's been poor 3 of the last 4 seasons, not just one. That change was noticeably needed before just this last season. One could have looked at 2010 objectively and said a couple guys had career seasons...unusual season for them...like Pavano and Liriano for instance, and decided it was best not to put too much credence into those seasons, expecting the same results.

As far as '04-'07 seasons go, without Johan (one guy) where would that rotation have ranked? Truth is, we haven't done well in pitching for awhile...neither in drafting or developing, and it's shown...and not just for one season

The rotation is awful now. I didn't include the two most recent seasons because the Twins have had exactly one offseason to react to 2011 and I'm not going to create any trends based on one offseason. Before that the rotation was arguably solid. '09 got ugly but '10 rebounded well and I already showed that 2011 should have been decent with Liriano, Baker, Pavano, Slowey, Duensing and blackburn (only one season removed from back to back 4.00 ERA seasons) with Gibson in AAA.

Do you think that the Twins should have been trading OF'ers or prospects for pitchers that offseason because that is your complaint?

Originally Posted by kab21

Do you think that the Twins should have been trading OF'ers or prospects for pitchers that offseason because that is your complaint?

No, the trading players at their peak value comment and the pitching problems comment are two separate issues, though one could say that if the team traded guys at their peak value (like they should have done with Cuddyer in the 2011 trading deadline) that pitching certainly should have been targeted.

My point about the pitching is that I don't think 2011 was the start of a trend...that's where I respectfully disagree with you. I think it started when Santana left. Certainly if your goal is to go deep into the playoffs for a W Series championship in mind, our pitching staff has lacked the pitching needed to win a short series against the best offenses in baseball for awhile now...even as improved as it was in 2010. If your goal is to be competitive in a weak division, I can see where hoping the 2010 Pavano and Liriano's 2010 was going to continue on to next season and keep us competitive, but not improving the rotation, and it staying the same as it was in 2010, certainly wasn't going to push us to the next level. IMO.

One could also say for a team that preaches to it's pitchers pitch to contact forcing ground balls, trading Hardy and not keeping Hudson (or replacing him with a solid glove) wasn't the best idea...

Originally Posted by greengoblinrulz

Originally Posted by Shane Wahl

Both Edwin Jackson and Shaun Marcum are affordable, if affordable means keeping with 2012 payroll.

Affordable from Terry Ryan (at least to me....based on the teams history) means players who'll play for a 1 year deal, maybe 2 under the right circumstances
Marcum/Jackson are gonna want a 3 yr deal minumum.....Twins have NEVER signed a FA pitcher with that many years & have NEVER traded for a pitcher with that many years remaining (not counting pre-FA pitchers).
They are the cheapest team in baseball that has a 90m+ payroll.....this will continue this year.
As good as FA went last offseason, nobody got a big deal. They went cheap, but it worked out for the most part

worked out for the most part?96 losses, and once again the cancer curly ryan rebuilding this team.....

Originally Posted by thrylos98

penny pinching might:

- make this an 85 loss team
- be the last nail in the Gardy and Ryan coffins...

i think the reason paul molitor wont be with the team as a coach this year is because he might wispher into jipppy pohlads ear....
hey boss the 3 stooges dont have a clue , hire real baseball people

.[/QUOTE]In my opinion, if we are trading Span, Revere, Willingham or Morneau, we have to get pitching.

And can you imagine Gardy having the biggest error machine in baseball on his team? Gardy would destroy him. I'm also not sure we have the right people to develop him into being the type of player his potential would suggest he is?[/QUOTE]


I would agree with that but realistically with Jackson and Bedard as FA I don't see us getting anyone better in a trade so I wouldn't want us to try. Castro has had a lot of errors but most have been mental/indifference, that can be corrected especially when dealing with a 22 yr old. Right now the Cubs don't want to deal with him, they would like a center fielder and some prospects to rebuild. I wouldn't mind trading Span and some others to strengthen our lineup. The bottom line is Castro's problems can be fix and right now I believe you can get him for a steal. .283 ave with 15 hr is very desirable from the SS position. We had over 10 errors at SS this season and Castro had (without looking I believe 19?) with at least 9 of them coming on mental mistakes that should get eliminated as he reaches 24-25 years old and has a coach who can hopefully get the most out of him.

Its not a lock that these decisions would yield a high payoff but the reward is worth the risk in my opinion.

Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp

Can we stop using Ryan's track record as an indicator of future moves? The dude had a $40m or lower payroll for many of those years. The early 2000s Metrodome Twins have very, very little to do with the 2013 Target Field Twins.

Ryan didn't have much money last season but he used it pretty smartly to pick up several players that helped the team enormously. There is no reason to expect him to do anything different this offseason when he has more money to play with and acquire players that aren't awful.

his worst move was keeping lame duck ron(larry) gardenhire....what quality free agent will want to come here with the team lossing 95+
games in back to back seasons and knowing some time during the season they will have to adjust to a different manager after adjusting to larryin the 1st place? and wether you choose to believe it or not curly ryan was running this team even when bill smith had the title of g.m.
it is time for a complete sweep of the 3 stooges and ronnies posse ....

Originally Posted by Chance

. We had over 10 errors at SS this season and Castro had (without looking I believe 19?) with at least 9 of them coming on mental mistakes that should get eliminated as he reaches 24-25 years old and has a coach who can hopefully get the most out of him.

Its not a lock that these decisions would yield a high payoff but the reward is worth the risk in my opinion.

He had 27 errors, 8 more than anyone else at shortstop. He had 29 the year before, 4 more than anyone else at shortstop. And he had 27 the year before that. Now, you'll find as I'm here longer, I don't really put too much credence into errors and fielding % to judge a defender, but GARDY and his gang harp on errors, which was really my point. Whether he'd thrive here under Gardy. On top of that, he really hasn't shown much range either. So, I mean, maybe it's a good idea, maybe it's not. I'd focus on pitching for trades though...at least this year. Just my opinion

Thanks for the exact stats. in general any trade that the twins do makes me nervous, especially if they are trading for a pitcher. I just dont like who they target, there are players similar to who they trade for on the market that would require equal pay but not giving up an asset or trade chip.

with the pile of horse ploop curly ryan normally chases why not look to joba da hut chamberlin?
he might come here if he has a chance to be a starter,at a low cost 1 or 2 year contract , and if he cant cut it we can move him to the pen , he cant be any worse then gray or capps

Originally Posted by Chance

Thanks for the exact stats. in general any trade that the twins do makes me nervous, especially if they are trading for a pitcher. I just dont like who they target, there are players similar to who they trade for on the market that would require equal pay but not giving up an asset or trade chip.

Agreed...but IMO, it's the only way we're gonna fix the pitching any time soon.

Originally Posted by kab21

Originally Posted by mike wants wins

They have what, one guy in the minors who looks legit as a starter for the next two or three years? If you do not sign any free agents, where does the pitching come from? They will not trade their top prospects, we know that. They refused to trade Willingham at his peak value. So, if you will not get starters this year or next, what is the plan?

you say things like won't and refused based on one season. They have always had a pretty good rotation and decent depth in the minors so your historical trends are kind of worthless. Before last offseason they hadn't signed a FA to a 20+M deal either. The Garza/Young trade was also a first for the org.

I've already told you what I would do. Try to trade for Shields (willy or Span), sign the best they can get for 3/30ish and bring back Baker on a 1 yr deal with 2 generous options (10Mish). that's the making of a solid rotation without exposing the Twins to significant long term risk. Your plan of signing TWO FA starters for 4/48-5/75 looks awful when you look at the utter crap that comparable FA starters have done.

It sucks to lose but you don't fix teams in FA.

other then gibson , what pitcher in AA or AAA can be a front of the rotation starter?and gibson isnt a lock to be one either..
terry curly ryan has drafted soft tossing inexpencive pitchers and wonders why we can not win or go beyond the 1st round of the playoffs?
he has been in charge since 1994, how much time do we need to figure out he is in it only as a profit for the company , not to win it all for the team and fans, many bashed ole george stienbrenner,but he tried to win it every year, not just to be the best in the worst division ....

[QUOTE=ThePuck;58570][QUOTE=old nurse;58568]

Originally Posted by PopRiveter

Originally Posted by Kobs

Originally Posted by old nurse

Ryan has managed to pull value out of low-moderate risk guys at most positions, but I can't think of many successful SPs he's acquired from outside the organization. Kenny Rogers comes to mind.

Ryan got pitchers like Joe Mays and Carlos Silva. Do not forget Santana was aquired outside of the organization. Lohse was origionally from elswhere. That is off the top of my head.

Joe Mays had one good season out of six with us. Silva pitched one very good year with us, two okay ones and a really bad one. Santana wasn't a FA signing or a trade, he was a rule 5 pick up. And Lohse wasn't that good with us either. He also failed to sign Santana early enough to avoid Smith having to trade him after the '07 season...

Rule V pickup I do believe is going out and getting pitching. Mays seemed to have it figured out then he got injured and was never the same again. Silva appeared to have pitched well enough to get a monster contract.

It should also be noted that JR/BS were smart enough to cut ties with Silva and let someone else pay him ridiculous money.

It's one thing to pick up a guy that helps the team but is up-and-down overall. That's a good thing. It's another thing entirely to overpay that guy to keep him. That's a bad thing.

JR did the first. JR/BS wisely avoided the second.

yes, Rule V is going out and taking a chance on a player another team has given up on. It's a stab with little consequence if it doesn't work out. It's not an aggressive move to acquire pitching. It's a low risk, low reward move that worked out very well..but still a low risk move. The kind of low risk, low reward move that brought us Marquis, Ramon Ortiz, Ponson and Livan Hernandez (though that wasn't his).

And yes, Seattle paid a big contract to a guy who had an ERA of almost 6.00 in 2006 and over 4.00 in the season prior to them signing him. That makes them stupid, nothing more. They've made many a boneheaded FA signing. And he didn't work out there either.

[QUOTE=ThePuck;58768]

Originally Posted by Chance

In my opinion, if we are trading Span, Revere, Willingham or Morneau, we have to get pitching.

I don't think that's true at all. There are plenty of holes and there's no reason to refuse to consider filling them via trade. I don't suspect Castro is the right target there, but the Twins could certainly use an upgrade at shortstop and it will be hard to find that in free agency. They can't be satisfied to start the season with a middle infield picked from Caroll, Florimon, Escobar, & Dozier, especially with 3rd base less than settled.

There are a lot more decent gambles in the free agent pitcher market than in the middle infielder market. In this market, I think I'd get better value trading, for example, Revere for a comparable young decent shortstop and sign a starter with some upside than vice versa. I really don't see a shortstop that I could sign and feel remotely good about.