Thread: Twins will seek 'affordable pitchers'

[QUOTE=ThePuck;58733]

Originally Posted by kab21

Originally Posted by SweetOne69

The '01 Twins and '91 Braves did it through the farm system and were built for long term success. They did not do it through FA.

and our minor league system is hurting, especially in the pitching department

Pretty sure the Twins signed the 2nd best free agent pitcher in 1991, who knows if they would have gone after Clemons, but it wasn't like he was leaving Boston at that time.

Not sure who insisted on the 1 year deal for Jack Morris, but seeing as Terry Ryan learned everything he knew from Andy McPhail, it would seem likely the Twins were pleased it wasn't a multi-year contract. $3.7M isn't a lot for a pitcher these days, but it was likely a top 5 salary for a pitcher seeing as Morris was getting paid more than Dave Stewart who signed his deal the year before. Of course Chili Davis' 2 year $2.5M deal was also likely a top 10 free agent deal that off-season. Add Mike Pagliarulo and throw in the trade that brought former Cy Young winner Steve Bedrosian and his $1.3M contract to the Twins and it's hard to argue they weren't pretty agressive heading into that season.

IMO, pitching is our biggest need by far and our best chips need to be used for that. I understand you disagree, but I'm not seeing how needing 3-4 quality starting pitchers doesn't make it our biggest need. We don't have it in the minors, and Terry Ryan already said we aren't gonna pay for them in FA, so how else are we going to get it if not by tradinge for them with one or two of our best chips?

[QUOTE=nicksaviking;58825]

Originally Posted by ThePuck

Originally Posted by kab21

Originally Posted by SweetOne69

The '01 Twins and '91 Braves did it through the farm system and were built for long term success. They did not do it through FA.

and our minor league system is hurting, especially in the pitching department

Pretty sure the Twins signed the 2nd best free agent pitcher in 1991, who knows if they would have gone after Clemons, but it wasn't like he was leaving Boston at that time.

Not sure who insisted on the 1 year deal for Jack Morris, but seeing as Terry Ryan learned everything he knew from Andy McPhail, it would seem likely the Twins were pleased it wasn't a multi-year contract. $3.7M isn't a lot for a pitcher these days, but it was likely a top 5 salary for a pitcher seeing as Morris was getting paid more than Dave Stewart who signed his deal the year before. Of course Chili Davis' 2 year $2.5M deal was also likely a top 10 free agent deal that off-season. Add Mike Pagliarulo and throw in the trade that brought former Cy Young winner Steve Bedrosian and his $1.3M contract to the Twins and it's hard to argue they weren't pretty agressive heading into that season.

That was over 20 years ago.

[QUOTE=ThePuck;58827]

Originally Posted by nicksaviking

Originally Posted by ThePuck

Originally Posted by kab21

Originally Posted by SweetOne69

The '01 Twins and '91 Braves did it through the farm system and were built for long term success. They did not do it through FA.

and our minor league system is hurting, especially in the pitching department

Pretty sure the Twins signed the 2nd best free agent pitcher in 1991, who knows if they would have gone after Clemons, but it wasn't like he was leaving Boston at that time.

Not sure who insisted on the 1 year deal for Jack Morris, but seeing as Terry Ryan learned everything he knew from Andy McPhail, it would seem likely the Twins were pleased it wasn't a multi-year contract. $3.7M isn't a lot for a pitcher these days, but it was likely a top 5 salary for a pitcher seeing as Morris was getting paid more than Dave Stewart who signed his deal the year before. Of course Chili Davis' 2 year $2.5M deal was also likely a top 10 free agent deal that off-season. Add Mike Pagliarulo and throw in the trade that brought former Cy Young winner Steve Bedrosian and his $1.3M contract to the Twins and it's hard to argue they weren't pretty agressive heading into that season.

That was over 20 years ago.

So using the 1991 World Series team as an excuse NOT to go after free agents was acceptable, but using the same example to show they actually won the World Series by being agressive in the offseason was unacceptable?

'So using the 1991 World Series team as an excuse NOT to go after free agents is acceptable, but using the same team to show they won the World Series by being agressive in the offseasons is unacceptable?'

That's not my argument. I'm saying just cause he did something over 20 years ago doesn't mean he's going to now. He hasn't shown a willingness to do that in a long time.. On top of that, he's already saying he won't do it this coming year. He SHOULD do that. I'm agreeing with you on what he should do...

Ah, my mistake, I thought the reply was aimed at my statement, instead of Terry Ryan's reluctance to be agressive.

Originally Posted by nicksaviking

Ah, my mistake, I thought the replay was aimed at my statement, instead of Terry Ryan's reluctance to be agressive.

No worries :-)

Originally Posted by kab21

The problem is that a majority of the good starters go for 50-100M contracts and most of them end up being poor investments.

Just for fun I took a look at all starters signed over the past 5 years to contracts over $50 million in value and return on investment is not that bad.

starters5years.jpg

If you compare the salary they have earned to what Fangraphs projects as their value you are looking at a 88.44% return on investment which is not great but is not the really bad number I was expecting.

Sometimes I wonder how much actual analysis people do when posting stats. It's like they have made an opinion and look for data that supports it w/o checking to see if the numbers make sense.

A) you need to take Sabathia, Lee and Darvish (and add Darvish's 51M posting fee) out since they are clearly elite and not part of the discussion. Elite pitchers actually work out pretty well. The ones that don't are the non-elite pitchers that get paid 12-15M/yr which is exactly what's available this offseason and exactly what people want to sign. Greinke is the only pitcher this year that is close to CC, Lee and Darvish and everyone says avoid him. In this offseason either you sign Greinke or you avoid long term commitments.

B) I'm not sure you can include Wilson or Buehrle since the big risk with them is paying them 15+M when they are in their mid to late 30's. We don't have this data yet and I included them in the too early to tell group.

C) extend your look to include those back to 2006 (or further) that I posted. It looks simply awful.

D) this suggests that you believe in fangraphs WAR for pitchers - Lowe somehow earned 40M with ERA's of 4.67, 4.00, 5.05 and 5.11 despite pitching in a pitchers park in the NL? If you consider that 40M worth of value then I don't even know where to start because it's not 40M worth of value. He was awful.

After adjusting your list you're left with:
Lackey - 4.40 and 6.4 ERA's before having TJ surgery. Absolutely awful.
Burnett - The Yankees got 4.00, 5+, and 5+ ERA seasons out of their 82M investment before eating a lot of his contract and trading him
Lowe - the Braves got ERA's of 4.67, 4.00, 5+ and 5+ for their 60M
Dempster - earned his contract and is one of only 2 guys going back to the 2006 offseason that has

Originally Posted by kab21

A) you need to take Sabathia, Lee and Darvish (and add Darvish's 51M posting fee) out since they are clearly elite and not part of the discussion.

You included them in your list that you supplied on page 4 and I will include them in mine. I took the parameters of over 50 million and applied it to the past 5 years. You are correct about Darvish, the ESPN Tracker link did not list the posting fee and I forgot about it. That changes the percentage to %78.6 which doesn’t change my point. Contracts over $50 million are not dollar for dollar great investments but they are not flops either.

Originally Posted by kab21

B) I'm not sure you can include Wilson or Buehrle since the big risk with them is paying them 15+M when they are in their mid to late 30's. We don't have this data yet and I included them in the too early to tell group.

Again, you included them in the list you provided on page 4 so if they weren’t eligible for discussion I would assume you would not have brought them up. Also, they have shorter contracts (4-5 years) then someothers because of that concern.

Originally Posted by kab21

C) extend your look to include those back to 2006 (or further) that I posted. It looks simply awful.

Typically I do my analysis in normal timeframes (5, 10, 15, ect…). You are accusing me of cherry-picking stats but you pick a random 6 year period just to pick up Zito’s bad contract. I would also state that there has been a well-acknowledged shift in free agent contracts in the past 5 years where there are no longer ridiculous numbers being given out to guys just because they are the last ones standing. It’s how we got Crede for 1 year instead of 3. It’s how we got Pavano on a decent 2 year deal instead of him getting a bigger contract elsewhere.

Originally Posted by kab21

d) this suggests that you believe in fangraphs WAR for pitchers - Lowe somehow earned 40M with ERA's of 4.67, 4.00, 5.05 and 5.11 despite pitching in a pitchers park in the NL? If you consider that 40M worth of value then I don't even know where to start because it's not 40M worth of value. He was awful

Lowe had FIP’s of 4.06, 3.89, 3.70, and 4.37 those years as well. If you can find some other reference that uses a consistent mathematical formula and not just opinions for value I will refer to that, but until I find another source Fangraphs value is all I have for a neutral source.

In short, I think if the Twins go after Greinke or Peavy in that over $50 million range they won’t get exact value but they won’t get robbed either but if they take a step down into the $20-$49 million range they will find that money foolishly spent.

I also gave an analysis that said 2 studs, 2 too early to tell, 2 decent pitchers and a big pile of crap. I listed Wilson and Buehrle but I think it's way too early to do an analysis of their contracts since 75+% is left to play out.

My selection criteria had nothing to do with cherry picking so I could include Zito. Feel free to exclude him if you want. This was the only range that the mlbtraderumors FA database was searchable.

So you think Lowe was worth 40M, Lackey was worth 23M and Burnett 42M because FIP and fangraphs says so then I honestly question your baseball analysis. If they pulled the crap they did with the Twins they would be lumped with the Blackburns of the world. They have been absolutely awful and no amount of FIP can convince me otherwise.

Nice post jharaldson. I also like to use Fangraphs. Though some try and discredit the info there, the people who gather that info do it for a living, watching all the players play all their games and evaluating everyone based on the same criteria with unbias eyes. While some of the info probably needs tweaking, at least it's fair across the board. I think it's pretty easy for some to discredit it as geek speak, or whatever, but that happens anytime change is brought about.

Someone even mentioned WAR and WHIP together as ridiculous. If you discredit WHIP as nonsense, might a well discredit old school stats like ERA and batting average while you're at it.

Originally Posted by ThePuck

Nice post jharaldson. I also like to use Fangraphs.

It's one thing to value alternative metrics that tell a better story of a player's success, it's another to ignore results in favor of those metrics. From what I can see the "value" stat is cobbled together from other stats that are a bit more theoretical than OPS or WHIP.

I would suggest that if a stat says that Lowe was worth 40M - it may need some tinkering.

Originally Posted by TheLeviathan

Originally Posted by ThePuck

Nice post jharaldson. I also like to use Fangraphs.

It's one thing to value alternative metrics that tell a better story of a player's success, it's another to ignore results in favor of those metrics. From what I can see the "value" stat is cobbled together from other stats that are a bit more theoretical than OPS or WHIP.

I would suggest that if a stat says that Lowe was worth 40M - it may need some tinkering.

I use fangraphs more for defensive metrics than anything else, myself...but I look at ALL info...what my eyes tells me, most traditional stats (though not all), new metrics, etc...everything in order to try and get the best info I can.

Originally Posted by ThePuck

I use fangraphs more for defensive metrics than anything else, myself...but I look at ALL info...what my eyes tells me, most traditional stats (though not all), new metrics, etc...everything in order to try and get the best info I can.

Which is cool - I think what kab is suggesting is that this particular interpretation of "value" that is being floated here is as questionable as some of the defensive metrics that often don't pass the eye test or have other similar problems.

Originally Posted by ThePuck

I use fangraphs more for defensive metrics than anything else, myself...but I look at ALL info...what my eyes tells me, most traditional stats (though not all), new metrics, etc...everything in order to try and get the best info I can.

All of this info says that Lowe was worth 40M, Burnett 52M and lackey 23M? WOW!

Originally Posted by TheLeviathan

Originally Posted by ThePuck

I use fangraphs more for defensive metrics than anything else, myself...but I look at ALL info...what my eyes tells me, most traditional stats (though not all), new metrics, etc...everything in order to try and get the best info I can.

Which is cool - I think what kab is suggesting is that this particular interpretation of "value" that is being floated here is as questionable as some of the defensive metrics that often don't pass the eye test or have other similar problems.

My post really wasn't about kab's argument. It was just an in general type observation...that so many discredit anything other than traditional stats, whether it's because they truly don't believe in the info, or because the info doesn't support their view.

I haven't seen enough of kab's posts to make any kind of true observation on where he stands on new metrics.

Originally Posted by ThePuck

I haven't seen enough of kab's posts to make any kind of true observation on where he stands on new metrics.

Then I might suggest, prior to complimenting an argument, you look at the total context of it.

Originally Posted by TheLeviathan

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Then I might suggest, prior to complimenting an argument, you look at the total context of it.

I was complimenting the research and the fact that he uses fangraphs, as opposed to so many who shy away from it. I wasn't picking either side of the argument or knocking kab. It's their debate, I'm not in it.

I will continue to occasionally compliment posts that I think took a lot of effort and thought as I see fit, but I appreciate your suggestion

Affordable options = not going to invest in the team to make it better.
Affordable for a poor man does not mean the same as for a Rich man. And the Twins are not poor. Did the 1500 crew challenge him/follow up on this? (I doubt they have the balls to do this)

This is beyond annoying to me. If the twins go the Affordable route, many people in MN will start looking for other "affordable" options to spend their entertainment money.
The residents of Hennipen county should ask for their money back.