10-18-2012, 08:12 AM #1
2013 Prospect Arrivals
Snippy responses aside, some of us are a bit bored with the content these days. So as an attempt to appease Smerf (yearn....ravage....you know the bit), let's talk about a few of the prospects it is realistic that we might see this year. I guess I'm curious what people expect as far as when we should see them and what we can expect from them. The Twins are notorious for getting immediate, sometimes surprising, production from young players they call up:
Kyle Gibson: We've already heard about his innings limit, but the guy is battling his tail off on the mound this fall. Most people have written him off as an ace before injury, but what if his velocity maintains this mid-90s rate? I don't see why we might not have a really legit arm here coming this season. We can't rely on him a whole lot due to the injury and limitations, but if we assume he probably gets only a portion of his 130 innings in the big leagues, I'm going to speculate probably 12-15 starts is reasonable then, you're talking about at least a half season of a pretty capable starter that the Twins have coming down the pipeline.
Deolis Guerra: The WHIP wasn't pretty in AAA, the walk total was a bit high, but the strikeout numbers can be a bit encouraging. Does he take a spot in the backend of this bullpen? It's been accurately called "soft" in the underbelly and this is the kind of arm that the Twins may need to help patch that weakness.
Oswaldo Arcia - In my dream world we flip Span to Tampa Bay or Atlanta for a starter and then flip Willingham for prospects as well. In which case I'd love a young outfield of Arcia-Revere-Parmalee. We all know the Twins and we'd probably get two frustrating months of Doumit making crop circles in left before Arcia comes up, but I really believe this guy can make an impact next year and be a fixture on this team for a long time to come. I could see him sporting a full season line around 290-10-60 with a slash of 290/330/550 even early on. Long term I think he's the ideal #2 hitter we've been looking for to purge the evil of "play second, hit second". To me, it's a mistake if he doesn't get a call-up before the all-star break.
Just a conversation starter on an important topic, not the best but about as well as we can do until this god awful postseason full of teams I want to all see lose is over.
10-18-2012, 09:17 AM #2
That's a good topic. I am VERY curious what the Twins do with Deolis Guerra. Because I don't expect them to compete in 2013, I would think they'll keep him around and at least give him a couple of months to see if his 88 mph FB can get anyone out.
I think we could realistically see Arcia and Hicks by the middle of next year. I also am not ready to give up on Joe Benson or Rene Tosoni.
I think the Twins need to give Plouffe a long look again in 2013 and hope he can be a more consistent power option. If not, we could see Deibinson Romero at 3B at some point (he's probably about the same age as Trevor).
In the middle infield, I would expect to see quite a bit of Florimon, Dozier and Escobar (who is probably best at 3B). The goal being that one of them make advances and be a guy who can be counted on for 2014. I'll stand behind Dozier, and I think Escobar can be a very good utility infielder for a long time.
Chris Herrmann will get time behind the plate and in LF.
Gibson could pitch. I think Hermsen is a year away. Thielbar is a guy who should go to spring training and compete with Tyler Robertson for a bullpen spot.
10-18-2012, 09:27 AM #3
Slama? I would like every potential reliever at AAA to get some time in the majors. That is the cheapest way to build the bullpen.
10-18-2012, 09:30 AM #4
10-18-2012, 09:34 AM #5
I believe Guerra is out of options...so it's 25 man roster or bust. Am I correct on this?
And I thought Tosoni was granted his outright release...
10-18-2012, 09:55 AM #6
10-18-2012, 09:56 AM #7
With Gardenhire's job on the line, I really don't expect the Twins to just punt on this season and use it to give a lot of prospects opportunities to play in the Big Leagues. Maybe if the Twins are bottom feeders by May again, that will change.
Gibson obviously will get a good look. Hendriks should get a chance to prove he's better than he has looked. I'd love to see Arcia and Hicks get shots, but I don't expect it until late in the season, at best. I'm interested in Benson and if he starts off well, I wonder if they won't want to give him one more legitimate look with the Twins before deciding whether he fits in their plans or not. I do want to see Herrmann get some time in the Bigs, too.I post regularly on our Knuckleballs blog (http://knuckleballsblog.com/)
~You can get anything you want, at Alice's Restaurant~
10-18-2012, 09:58 AM #8
10-18-2012, 10:29 AM #9
I know it may sound like a stretch, but I don't think Rosario is out of the question come late August/September. Reports say his defense has significantly improved in winterball, and his defense has really been his biggest hold-up. If he gets an early Arcia-like promotion to AA and performs well, a manager/GM who's job may be at risk may look to call up a top prospect if the MLB middle infielders struggle as expected.
10-18-2012, 10:37 AM #10
Tosoni was released from 40 man roster to make room for Carson when they brought him up. Torso I was outrighted to New Britain.Slama should be in bullpen barring a horrible spring, otherwise release him. What more does he need to do? Guerra should be given a strong look in the pen. Considering some of the stiffs in the bullpen last year (Gray comes to mind), what can it hurt?I hope Benson can rebuild his prospect status and push Hicks and Arcia for the first call up when the Twins decide Parmele can't play RF or they trade Morneau.Isn't there a strong chance Dozier is at 2B? Somehow I doubt TR does much with the middle infield considering the reconstruction he needs to do with the rotation.
10-18-2012, 10:46 AM #11
Forgot to mention Herrman. He needs to start at AAA but should replace Butera as third catcher. I like the flexibility Doumitt gives us with Mauer, but he really shouldn't play a position outside of C. Herrman can at least play a decent RF and would give them more flexibility. Plouffe should be starting 3B, but they need a lefty platoon guy off the bench (I like the suggestion of Chavez, but doubt they can get him).
10-19-2012, 12:26 AM #12
Am I the only one who thinks that Liam Hendriks has a decent shot to reach at least some of his potential next season? Granted, his potential isn't "ace," but I think he can be a very solid go-to guy who is cheap as hell for the next few years.
Maybe my eyes were lying to me, but it seems like (in 2012) he was getting completely shelled every time he trotted out there early in the year, then later in the year, he would go a few great innings and then get shelled, and then late in the year he actually strung some pretty good 6-9 inning stretches together, including his complete game heartbreaker. It's not that I'm happy with how "quickly" he's progressed in the majors this year, but it does seem like he has done some progressing.
Also, I apologize if this is a little off-topic, as he's not really a prospect anymore, per se.
10-19-2012, 12:32 AM #13
How about Michael Tonkin? With his recent success, his age and the him being a pen guy, he should be on the fast track assuming he continues to pitch well. He should start out in New Britain and could earn a promotion to AAA by June or sooner. I think he has a real chance of making the big club by August.
10-19-2012, 06:50 AM #14
I believe and hope that either Hicks or Arcia starts with the Twins. Depends on whether any outfielders are dealt in the offseason. We will see Gibson here and Thiebar was mentioned earlier. I agree with the earlier comment on Gardy's job will probably make it harder to do a complete makeover to start. Do not expect Dozier to start here, but Floriman should be the starting SS. I rhink Escobar should start in the minors, but may see him later. On Slama, what role does he fill? Do not see him on the staff unless Burnett is gone.
Nice discussion starter.
10-19-2012, 08:47 AM #15
10-19-2012, 09:18 AM #16
10-19-2012, 09:22 AM #17
Either way, I'm not completely down on the kid yet. He's still young and can turn it around. It seems as if a large part of his problem is that he's pitching scared instead of attacking the hitters. His stuff isn't great but it's not this bad, either.
10-19-2012, 09:29 AM #18
Why not just sign Greinke and go for it now? I'm tired of this losing. We are going to need a #1 SP for the next 4 years anyways. We got
the money, We can make trades and get younger later. Rally the fans and go for it, Baltimore and Oakland can do it,so can we. All it
would take is a hot start in April. Go Twins!
10-19-2012, 11:23 AM #19
Arcia- I expect to see him in the middle of the year sometime due to destroying what ever league he his is in. I think he might struggle a little at first, and might not get much PT if the Twins don't trade some people. He will be sent back down and brought up in September.
Hicks- He will take another step forward and be brought up in September, unless players are traded. If CF opens up he will get the call over Arcia, if not Arcia will be first.
Slama- He will go north with the Twins..... pitch 5 IP and be sent back down. Can't be optimistic about the Twins giving him a real shot since they didn't even give him a September call-up.
Benson- Starts out in Rochester slow, then tears it up from June- whenever the Twins call him up. Think he returns to form and hits 20 HR in AAA and another 5-10 with the Twins.
Guerra- Comes north due to being out of options. Puts up a 6 ERA through June and gets released. Can't miss bats at this level and will be the last of the horrible Santana trade. Hated it then, hate it now, and hate it because we could (would) have gotten Trout. FML
Hermsen- Sees time with the Twins like Hendriks did in 2011. Spot start here and there. Has problems with keeping the ball in the yard, but holds his own. By the end of the year is considered a candidate to the 2014 rotation.
Hermann- Plays Butera's role in 2013. Nothing special. Can be considered a back-up option going forward.
Dozier- Starts at 2b for the twins. Has an average year. Not good enough to cut him, not good enough to displace doubt about his ability to hold down the position for the Twins going forward.
Plouffe- First off, I love this guy. Plays hard, dealt with criticism since he's been called-up, hits for power, has a rocket arm. I want to believe he progresses and become more consistent. If given playing time he will hit nearly 30 HR's again, but average will normalize a little to .250 (his BABIP was atrocious in 2012). If he can take walks and hit homeruns he should play no questions asked.Do or do not. There is no try.
10-19-2012, 12:24 PM #20
I think Smerf has it about right. I'd add that I think the Twins trade Span and start with an OF of Willingham/Revere/Pamelee. If Parm can't hold down RF, one of Arcia/Hicks comes up (although I wonder if the Twins try Plouffe there again if he's hitting buy his 3B defense is horrible). I think Gibson spends April and May in the bullpen, like the Twins did with Santana and Liriano and gets moved into the rotation later. I think Hendriks has a solid enough season but will fade toward the end. But he could be a Baker-lite pitcher.
I think the Twins trade Span to the Reds for a pitcher and shortstop Didi Gregous (sp) so Didi is our starting shortstop.