Thread: What Would Morneau Command on the FA market?

Inspired by Seth Stohs' invitation, I'd like to hear some Twins Daily member input on a question some of my friends and I've kicked around in the last couple weeks:

If Justin Morneau's contract had expired this year and he was a Free Agent right now, what sort of a contract do you believe he would land?

The Offseason Handbook does a good job establishing potential first basemen contracts for this year's crop of free agents, but I'll just note the bigger names on the market are this year: Adam LaRoche, Mark Reynolds, Lance Berkman, and Carlos Lee lead the pack. And I'd like to think this exercise isn't completely academic, as determining Morneau's value this offseason helps establish his trade value.

Great question, and like you said, an important question. Also, a very tough question... IF teams knew he was 100% healthy and his age, he could probably get a 4 year, $45 million contract. However, with the concussion concerns (hopefully somewhat alleviated now, but still always lingering), the wrist issues, and age, I can't imagine he would get huge contract. I want to guess that it would be just shy of whatever Adam LaRoche gets. To throw out a guess... how about 2 years and $16 million?

I think he'd get something in the range of two years, $14m. If he repeats his 2012 season in 2013 (or does marginally better), I think he'll get three years, $24m-ish.

I would say 2 for 25m would be alot closer.

First off: Why is this a topic?
Second off: Unless some team was willing to overpay for him he'd be best severed taking a one year deal to bring his value back up.

Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave

First off: Why is this a topic?

This is actually more pertinent then some of the other things I have seen. Morneau is constantly placed in the "he needs to be traded" category. This can help to give people more of an insight to his current worth.

I think that there would be a team willing to overpay for him, at least financially, right now. A thin 1B market. I wouldn't be surprised to see at least a 3/$30 offer, if not more.

The curiosity is that we kept hearing that a team would've been foolish to trade for Morneau with what he was getting paid in 2013. Yet is it so far off the mark that he could command a $20-25 million 2-year contract easily if he was a free agent. Probably not, with a decent option/buyout for a third year. Then we have to think, should the Twins be extending him? Or is he replaceable by the much cheaper Parmelee with the Mauer option brewing in the 2015 and beyond season if need be. Personally, I would think $20 or 2-years would be generous at this point. Yet Morneau is sitting in a kinda driver's seat. If he does stay healthy, he could command that a team makes him the offer to get a draft pick, or be on tap to extend his contract for at least that amount. I doubt, though, that unless he hits like 40 homers, he shouldn't command more than $10 million a year. Which brings to mind the question of tradability of Morneau...is a team better placed to grab him during the offseason when they could make him a year-end offer next fall and keep him or get a draft choice, or just trade for him during mid-season, giving the Twins a couple of B-grade prospects. BUT TO GET BACK TO THE ORIGINAL QUESTION: I wouldn't be able to afford him as a free agent in 2013 and would not pay more than $7-9 million for his services, with the makeup of the Twins in their current state. I would stick with Parmelee, Mauer and Doumit as backup, and hope Carobello (spelling) is an adequate backup. I would almost...almost have kept Cuddyer or trad
e back for him. Almost.

Morneau can hit .300 Parmelee can.t hit .250

A curious question because free agency is like an auction and the bidding involves cash (after tax), probability of winning, location, and security. The Twins are in a very weak position in the bidding for top players and don't have much use for "a fallen star", Morneau would fit in either of these categories. His best offer (in Morneau's judgement) is difficult, he is a bit of an enigma. A shorter duration might fetch him more cash and a higher probability of winning than a longer contract on some teams. The premise is "right now"--so Texas might offer him a chunk for a one year contract but less per annum if longer, Toronto might go for two years at a lower annual salary, Chicago maybe two years and Seattle might offer 4 years but at a bit lower annual salary than all. Which offer Morneau accepts is but a pure guess--it's not like Morneau ever has to work another day in his life.

Originally Posted by Top Gun

Morneau can hit .300 Parmelee can.t hit .250

Because his .283 BA the past three years in the minors and .265 in the majors clearly indicate that.

I still believe extending Morneau at about the 2 years $18 - $20 million is the way to go. Parmalee is no sure thing and could be used along with Joe Benson as trade pieces to bring back better pitching. Unless the Twins pick up most of Morneau's salary, he cannot bring back good pitching prospects.

Originally Posted by beckmt

I still believe extending Morneau at about the 2 years $18 - $20 million is the way to go. Parmalee is no sure thing and could be used along with Joe Benson as trade pieces to bring back better pitching. Unless the Twins pick up most of Morneau's salary, he cannot bring back good pitching prospects.

No, just no. Read the numerous posts (elsewhere) on extended contracts for payers in teir declining years. Then consider that Doumit duplicates Morneau's performance at about 35% of the figure you stated. To say Parmalee can't do this or that flys in the face of why teams draft and develop new players. That $9-$10MM figure stated should be used to improve the rotation--not reward a fallen star.

Sunday night in Toronto, the final game of the 2012 CFL season will come to a close, as the hometown Toronto Argonauts battle the Calgary Stampeders in the historic 100th Grey Cup at Rogers Centre.

Lots of good thoughts.

I tend to think Morneau would warrant a 1 year contract in the $7-9 million range, probably on the higher end this offseason with the thin market at first base, and probably with an option year. However, I could also see the winning bidder overpay a bit by going to a 2 year contract, again with an option year.

If that's right--and it seems to be in the range most of you are thinking--then I'd imagine even with his current contract, packaging Morneau with a prospect and a little cash could prove desirable for some team with a hole at first base, and earn the Twins a respectable starting pitcher or middle infielder in return. I also imagine that's a trade you could only make after LaRoche signs somewhere, as his empty-handed suitors wouldn't have strong FA options for 1B and might be willing to gamble on Morneau's health.

Originally Posted by Wookiee of the Year

Lots of good thoughts.

I tend to think Morneau would warrant a 1 year contract in the $7-9 million range, probably on the higher end this offseason with the thin market at first base, and probably with an option year. However, I could also see the winning bidder overpay a bit by going to a 2 year contract, again with an option year.

If that's right--and it seems to be in the range most of you are thinking--then I'd imagine even with his current contract, packaging Morneau with a prospect and a little cash could prove desirable for some team with a hole at first base, and earn the Twins a respectable starting pitcher or middle infielder in return. I also imagine that's a trade you could only make after LaRoche signs somewhere, as his empty-handed suitors wouldn't have strong FA options for 1B and might be willing to gamble on Morneau's health.

At the point that we talk about moving Morneau along with one of our own prospects and cash, I think it becomes a bad trade unless someone is silly enough to give up a young starting pitcher for it. Veteran starting pitching in exchange for Morneau+prospects just doesn't cut it where the Twins are right now. The Twins should be happy enough to clear Morneau's salary and then apply that to pitching needs.

That wasn't the original topic, I realize, but I tend to agree with what people have said regarding his value here.

I think there would be teams willing to pay $10+ million for one year. This is why I originally wanted the Twins to trade him (Boston). Every year after that has to be protected against risk, so he might top out at 2/$20 million or 3 $25 million. There is no way that the Twins should extend him at all. He is one concussion away from being done and it is likely to happen.

Since everyone is overpaying, I'd say 2 years $16M.

2013 - Morneau will bat .317, hit 37 HR's with 113 RBI's. The Twins will in turn sign him to a 3 year 45M contract with a 18m team option 4th year... Hip-Hip Hooray!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Wookie, you may be overestimating LaRoche's impact on our ability to trade Morneau. He was tendered the 1 year offer so signing him would cost the team a first or second round pick.

Originally Posted by Wookiee of the Year

Inspired by Seth Stohs' invitation, I'd like to hear some Twins Daily member input on a question some of my friends and I've kicked around in the last couple weeks:

If Justin Morneau's contract had expired this year and he was a Free Agent right now, what sort of a contract do you believe he would land?

The Offseason Handbook does a good job establishing potential first basemen contracts for this year's crop of free agents, but I'll just note the bigger names on the market are this year: Adam LaRoche, Mark Reynolds, Lance Berkman, and Carlos Lee lead the pack. And I'd like to think this exercise isn't completely academic, as determining Morneau's value this offseason helps establish his trade value.

By the way, I take it that this is your first thread-starter? Good job to start with a very good one.