Thread: Scott Feldman, the Cubs, and how Theo Epstien is making Terry Ryan's life miserable

Originally Posted by birdwatcher

If the Twins had signed Baker and Feldman, the vast majority of the comments on here would negative. Ryan would be called names, and be derided as cheap and incompetent for signing two guys who are no better than #4-5-6 starters on a losing team, and risky ones at that.

But, because Ryan did not sign them, he's being called names, and is being derided as cheap and incompetent for not signing two guys who are low-risk solutions as #3-4 starters.

Shocking.

That is how the TD post board roles...

Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp

Originally Posted by jokin

I thought we fixed the "compete with the big dogs" problem with TF? Your comment sounds like we've time-traveled back to the thrilling days of the Plasti-dome Era.

You're totally right. The Twins are now on par with the Yankees, Phillies, Dodgers, and Cubs.

I don't know what I was thinking, pointing out that some teams have more money to spend on risky free agent-types.

Your passive-agressive approach is obvious and a bit tedious at this point. I don't think anyone who knows the answer to 2 + 2 argues that the Twins are on a par with those aformentioned clubs and that's not the point and you know it full well.

The argument is about what was "conceded" that the new approach would supposedly become at the time of the agreement to the commitment to TF- and what has actually taken place in the interim- and you know that is true, as well.

Look, I think we can agree that the current approach of the Twins is like a Model A trying to compete in the Sprint Cup Series. I don't see Oakland, Baltimore or Tampa Bay donning the same old scarf and goggles that the Twins seem to be wearing.

Originally Posted by Top Gun

I have played fantasy baseball since 1973 and football since 1982 sometimes in 10 different leagues. Ryan should have made the Marlin, Jays trade but maybe he couldn't, his time will come soon.

What was watching Charlie Chaplins movies like? Back when you were a kid did you think we would have flying cars by now?

Only kidding. Yes we all wish we could have got Johnson and Buerhle, lets hope hes got something up his sleeve.

Originally Posted by mike wants wins

1 year deal for $6MM is risky? What would not be risky?

And, they have $25MM more in income coming next year, cost free. And Morneau's deal ends after this year. They have plenty of money if only they want to spend it. We'll see over the next few weeks....

I'm talking solely about 2013. There's a good chance that if Ryan goes after marginal guys for $6m per year, he wouldn't have any money left for a real starting pitcher that will be with the team for more than one season. These pitching woes aren't going away after this season and if the Twins spend a bunch of money on short-term, marginal pitchers, they just have to do this again next offseason (and the pitching staff is probably awful for a third consecutive season). If given the choice, I'll take one legitimate #2/3 guy over a handful of #4s.

Originally Posted by mike wants wins

1 year deal for $6MM is risky? What would not be risky?

And, they have $25MM more in income coming next year, cost free. And Morneau's deal ends after this year. They have plenty of money if only they want to spend it. We'll see over the next few weeks....

Does anyone think Ryan's year-end bonus for 2012 will be based on winning 3 more games than 2011?... or by saving $20M from the payroll? I'm guessing the Twins were MORE profitable this year than last, and will likely be more profitable next year than this year- after a further payroll cut.

Bottom line, the club is waiting for "the turn" of talent in the minors and won't spend one dime more than is necessary until then.

Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp

Originally Posted by mike wants wins

1 year deal for $6MM is risky? What would not be risky?

And, they have $25MM more in income coming next year, cost free. And Morneau's deal ends after this year. They have plenty of money if only they want to spend it. We'll see over the next few weeks....

I'm talking solely about 2013. There's a good chance that if Ryan goes after marginal guys for $6m per year, he wouldn't have any money left for a real starting pitcher that will be with the team for more than one season. These pitching woes aren't going away after this season and if the Twins spend a bunch of money on short-term, marginal pitchers, they just have to do this again next offseason (and the pitching staff is probably awful for a third consecutive season). If given the choice, I'll take one legitimate #2/3 guy over a handful of #4s.

As a fan, who wouldn't take that choice?

As a player, who would choose the Twins?

Well, that is a self-imposed budget limitation. There is no reason they can't sign a $6MM guy, a $12MM guy, and deal Span or Willingham for a decent prospect (packaging one of them with a decent MN prospect). They have $38MM in margin improvement next year, some of that could be spent this year, easily.

I actually think that is the optimistic scenario, which makes me kind of sad. But, as I posted months ago, what team has ever signed 3 legit starting pitchers in one year (not three that turned out that way, but paid that up front)?

Originally Posted by jokin

Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp

Originally Posted by mike wants wins

1 year deal for $6MM is risky? What would not be risky?

And, they have $25MM more in income coming next year, cost free. And Morneau's deal ends after this year. They have plenty of money if only they want to spend it. We'll see over the next few weeks....

I'm talking solely about 2013. There's a good chance that if Ryan goes after marginal guys for $6m per year, he wouldn't have any money left for a real starting pitcher that will be with the team for more than one season. These pitching woes aren't going away after this season and if the Twins spend a bunch of money on short-term, marginal pitchers, they just have to do this again next offseason (and the pitching staff is probably awful for a third consecutive season). If given the choice, I'll take one legitimate #2/3 guy over a handful of #4s.

As a fan, who wouldn't take that choice?

As a player, who would choose the Twins?

All the Twins have to do is offer more money than 29 other teams.

Originally Posted by mike wants wins

I actually think that is the optimistic scenario, which makes me kind of sad. But, as I posted months ago, what team has ever signed 3 legit starting pitchers in one year (not three that turned out that way, but paid that up front)?

Even two such signings seem like a relative rarity. And it seems like an absurdly optimistic scenario for the Twins relative to their history. There's still plenty of time for Ryan to prove that wrong, but the deals handed out to Guthrie, Baker, and Feldman make that possibility appear even less likely.

Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp

Originally Posted by jokin

Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp

Originally Posted by mike wants wins

1 year deal for $6MM is risky? What would not be risky?

And, they have $25MM more in income coming next year, cost free. And Morneau's deal ends after this year. They have plenty of money if only they want to spend it. We'll see over the next few weeks....

I'm talking solely about 2013. There's a good chance that if Ryan goes after marginal guys for $6m per year, he wouldn't have any money left for a real starting pitcher that will be with the team for more than one season. These pitching woes aren't going away after this season and if the Twins spend a bunch of money on short-term, marginal pitchers, they just have to do this again next offseason (and the pitching staff is probably awful for a third consecutive season). If given the choice, I'll take one legitimate #2/3 guy over a handful of #4s.

As a fan, who wouldn't take that choice?

As a player, who would choose the Twins?

All the Twins have to do is offer more money than 29 other teams.

Not necessarily always true. A player, and even sometimes his agent, have other factors to consider- ie, the chances for winning, leveraging of the deal down the road for more profit, outside endorsement possibilities, agent currying favor for other clients, the city the team plays in, the league the team plays in, team colors preferred by the player's wife, etc.

Do you deny that in the Twins current competitive state that they are likely not the first team on most FAs wish list?

Free agents, like the overwhelming majority of human brings, follow the money. For every free agents that takes a team-friendly deal, I can show you 20 that followed the dollars. It's a low enough percentage to be unimportant. If the Twins want a good pitcher, they can get one.

Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp

Free agents, like the overwhelming majority of human brings, follow the money. For every free agents that takes a team-friendly deal, I can show you 20 that followed the dollars. It's a low enough percentage to be unimportant. If the Twins want a good pitcher, they can get one.

The 20 that followed the dollars can often make a boatload more money through leveraging their deal through enhanced performance on a winning team and through outside endorsements that could vastly ouststrip the extra million dollars/yr that the Twins might pay. Watch which teams receive the most minutes of coverage on Baseball Tonight and correlate that to endorsement deals and future Free Agency.

Using that thinking, Miami was the largest city in the US last year and Houston is smaller than Milwaukee. Every city has endorsement opportunities and the Twin Cities are right in the middle of the pack. I've never seen any indication that some teams are better at drawing free agents than others once you get past the Yankees and Dodgers of the world.

It's interesting to me that there are several middle-tier starting pitching free agents that are signing before the top guys do. There are usually a few, but I don't remember this many in the past. The Cubs and Royals are being aggressive and chasing these guys - Baker, Feldman, E Santana, Guthrie. Everybody else who has signed has just re-signed with their team.

It's a little weird that two team (three if you count the Blue Jays) have driven so much spending so early. I wonder if Theo/Dayton are reading a nutso market or if they're just trying to take care of business early? All three GMs are kind of sabr darlings, too. It'll be interesting to see what we think of these signings at the end of the offseason, or at the end of the season.

I'll add one thing to my post above....

At the beginning of this offseason, if I had to hope how Ryan would handle shopping for starting pitching, I would have said that I hoped he waited and let the market come to him. There was so much talent on the board and the class was so deep that he was going to have some decent guys fall into his lap if he could just be patient. When he said in our interview that he felt he needed to be aggressive, I cringed.

The salaries are higher than I anticipated, but the class is still just as deep. Now, maybe a few teams like the Cubs/Royals/Blue Jays are going to drive up the demand a bit higher than I thought, but I'd still need to be be convinced this isn't the right strategy.

Originally Posted by LaBombo

Originally Posted by mike wants wins

I actually think that is the optimistic scenario, which makes me kind of sad. But, as I posted months ago, what team has ever signed 3 legit starting pitchers in one year (not three that turned out that way, but paid that up front)?

Even two such signings seem like a relative rarity. And it seems like an absurdly optimistic scenario for the Twins relative to their history. There's still plenty of time for Ryan to prove that wrong, but the deals handed out to Guthrie, Baker, and Feldman make that possibility appear even less likely.

I think Ryan only said "three new starting pitchers"--he didn't qualify/embellish the statement with "legit", or "established", etc. He could accomplish said task through trades for high minor league guy(s) and promote them to the rotation, "over-the-hill" veterans, "spot starters", or use theRule 5 draft.

Agreed, Ryan never said three legit starting pitchers, that would be what I would do...because winning is my top priority as a fan. And, frankly, they have the money to spend if they really want to.

Originally Posted by John Bonnes

I'll add one thing to my post above....

At the beginning of this offseason, if I had to hope how Ryan would handle shopping for starting pitching, I would have said that I hoped he waited and let the market come to him. There was so much talent on the board and the class was so deep that he was going to have some decent guys fall into his lap if he could just be patient. When he said in our interview that he felt he needed to be aggressive, I cringed.

The salaries are higher than I anticipated, but the class is still just as deep. Now, maybe a few teams like the Cubs/Royals/Blue Jays are going to drive up the demand a bit higher than I thought, but I'd still need to be be convinced this isn't the right strategy.

Wait how long, and for how many good pitchers to be signed? What does this mean, in your mind?

mike wants wins, you're correct in saying the Twins have the money. They CAN afford two "legitimate" FA pitchers, say, a Marcum and a McCarthy. AND, IN ADDITION they can trade for a second #2-3, even afford to sweeten a deal by paying some of Morneau's salary to seal a deal, for example. Ryan said he won't encounter financial constraints in going about solving the problem. This is important.

So, if he does what many expect- strictly bargain-hunting and dumpster-diving- giving us nothing more than over-the hill vets like Marquis, rule 5 bets, and Feldman types, he will earn every ounce of criticism.

My theory is he's not being aggressive on these initial fringe guys like Baker and Feldman because they're a dime a dozen and he already has a half-dozen of them. Let's see.

Agreed, let's see. There are still pitchers out there, and OFers to be traded....