Thread: Article: Twins trade Denard Span for Nationals' 2011 first round pick

At the risk of derailing this thread, and not offering any explanation why, I'd like to just remind everyone what Beane and Rizzo agreed to last year, because it is so ridiculous in comparison.

Gio Gonzalez: 26, 3 years of team control remaining, 9.4 career RA9 wins over 3+ seasons.

for

right-handers Brad Peacock and A.J. Cole, and lefty Tommy Milone — plus catching prospect Derek Norris. Peacock, Cole and Norris ranked third, fourth and ninth, respectively, in Baseball America’s recent list of the Nationals’ top prospects.

Originally Posted by Fire Dan Gladden

Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave

Obviously this move was made with 2014+ in mind, and that is fine, especially since we took upside over "sure thing". But looking further into it, does this really hurt the Twins that much in 2013?

Span no doubt is a good player, who the Twins will miss but his production it appears is entirely replaceable. On the defensive side of things, Revere is at least as good of an overall defensive player as Span at CF and there is a very good chance that he has significantly better range in the position (quite possibly top 2 or 3 in all of baseball) Obviously his arm is garbage, but in CF I think it is "hidden" a bit and his range more then makes up for it.

Span certainly had a solid bat, but I don't think we are going to miss it as much as people think. Even with his best season in 3 years Span still posted the 6th best OPS on the team behind Willingham, Mauer, Doumit, Morneau, and Plouffe. I think there is a very good chance all 5 post higher then Span again in 2013. Parmelee should be able to post a higher OPS as well, if he didn't I would be pretty disappointed/surprised. Some may argue that OPS isn't an end all be all and that since Span was a leadoff hitter OBP mattered more. Span finished 4th on the team behind Mauer, Willingham and Jamey Carroll (which is surprising). In addition he was only 9 points higher then both Morneau and Revere. A healthy Morneau should out produce that in 2013, while I actually think Revere regresses a bit. She you are looking at what would be the 5th best OBP guy on your team having to be replaced. IMO in an offensive standpoint Parmelee should be able to come close to that as well.

In regards to speed, Span had it no doubt, but for every 2 steals he had it seems like he had one pick off. Revere is a better base runner no doubt, but overall the Twins will be hurt a bit on the "speed" category until a guy like Hicks comes up. Good news for the Twins is they didn't exactly run a whole lot anyways.

All this isn't even factoring in that Hicks could very well be up sometime in 2012 and ultimately be a better fielder, hitter (especially in the power category) and runner then Span.

So at the end of the day, while strengthening the team in the mid to long term I don't think it hurts the team much in the short term. Revere in CF is an upgrade defensively and it allows to get Parmelee a shot at playing every day. Additionally it makes Hicks and Arcia's path to the majors much easier.

Pretty solid move and great timing by Ryan IMO as Spans value was unlikely to get any higher.

A lot of valid points here. Let me add my two cents:

1) I believe a lot of people, both GM's and fans, have underrated Span for a long time. While not exceptional in any one category, Span was above average in many. The ability to be decent in the leadoff spot is not just about numbers. It is about professional at-bats, table setting, and providing quality while leading the team in PA. Span does all of these things. His ability to play CF and low salary make him a wanted asset.

2) Span could easily have been one of the nucleus for the next wave. More prospects burn out than excel. While we hope that the Hicks, Rosario, Buxton, et. al. group comes up and produces, the reality is that only 2-3 of them will have any real impact in the majors. Span is a proven MLB commodity that should still have a number of quality years left.

3) I like the fact the Twins are looking more toward a hopeful 1-2, than another sure 4-5. I think it shows the Twins are willing to take a few risks, something they have been generally averse to in the past. I'm not sure this was exactly how I would have like to see it. I would have like to seen an additional MLB ready #4-5 starter, along with Meyer, to help the team today as well.

4) Why is everybody convinced Parmalee will be productive at a major league level? He has not exactly torn it up for the Twins in the past. I think odds are better Hicks will be out there before him.

This smells of a typical TR move, reminiscent of Pierzynski or Knoblauch. Trading a vet for low minors guys, "knowing" they will help you in the future. While we won't have an answer for a few years, I tend to give TR the benefit of the doubt on these types of moves. Span is the type of player that Twins fan's tend to gravitate to. Hard working, better than average, no public dust ups, by all account a stand up guy. I for one will be sorry to see him go.

1. Valid points, but keep in mind the leadoff hitter often times is only the leadoff hitter once in a game. While "proffesional at bats" certainly are meaningful, at the end of the day if you are a table setter your first and only job should be to get on base (which Span was good/very good, but not great at)

2. Good point, now if the Twins only had Hicks or Arcia and a bunch of long shots behind them I would be more inclined to agree. The Twins in fact have 3 very good CF prospects, the odds of at least one of them producing at a high level is pretty good. Especially when Hicks and Arica have shown success as high as AA. This isn't even factoring in Revere, who I am not high on but at least has the potential to be a solid stop gap in the meantime. One thing I do know is that the Twins had next to zero high upside pitching in the minors, one of which had TJS and the other pretty much just turned 18. You deal from a strength and build up your weaknesses IMO (10 fold if your weakness is SP)

3. I mean, yeah, I think we all would prefer more then less, but in reality Span just didn't have that kind of value. A guy who has #5 type upside really doesn't excite me as the Twins are still loaded with those in the minors it seems. (or if they aren't they surely will be again soon) Also I haven't seen anyone actually say who the Nationals should have also included, just a lot of "oh another prospect" or "another pitcher" if someone were to throw some names out there we could maybe all discuss it.

4. I don't think anyone is convinced he is a sure thing, nor have I heard anyone claim he is. Though he has certainly earned himself a look based on three things: A strong MLB stint in 2011. A dominant AAA season last year, and somewhat solid production after his recall to the Majors in late August. (.753 OPS- not world beating, but showed improveent) You are right though, there is a chance that Hicks could be a regular before Parmelee. But in that case, we still have Revere (and Arcia +more in the wings) and Revere is at least a decent stop gap and you can always find a corner OF with pop on the FA market for somewhat cheap (see: Willingham and Doumit)

I'm wondering if people upset with the trade are more upset with the return or how far away the return seems? Had the Twins gotten Tijuan Walker, who is far away but a top ten prospect, would some of you folks still be disappointed? Serious question not trying to provoke.

Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave

Originally Posted by johnnydakota

I hope this kid is the best pitcher ever, but he is still 3 years away from joing the big club,and a lot can happen

Where are people getting this 3 years from? Sickels himself says he could be ready come next season.

People understand the difference between college starters and HS starters right? There is no reason why Meyer shouldn't spend the majority of this season in AA with a shot at AAA towards the end. If he keeps doing what he has been doing he will be with the Twins come June 2014.

2013 AA
2014 AAA
2015 Maybe minnesota twins, if he continues to progress

Originally Posted by Willihammer

At the risk of derailing this thread, and not offering any explanation why, I'd like to just remind everyone what Beane and Rizzo agreed to last year, because it is so ridiculous in comparison.

Gio Gonzalez: 26, 3 years of team control remaining, 9.4 career RA9 wins over 3+ seasons.

for

right-handers Brad Peacock and A.J. Cole, and lefty Tommy Milone — plus catching prospect Derek Norris. Peacock, Cole and Norris ranked third, fourth and ninth, respectively, in Baseball America’s recent list of the Nationals’ top prospects.

I'm not so sure what is so ridiculous about that, if anything it shows how high of value a major league ready #2 has. Gonzalez was one of the best 5 pitchers in the game this year. Span highly likely won't even be one of the top 5 CF in baseball this year (if that is the comparison you are trying to draw)

Originally Posted by mikeee

Originally Posted by jokin

Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave

Originally Posted by johnnydakota

I hope this kid is the best pitcher ever, but he is still 3 years away from joing the big club,and a lot can happen

Where are people getting this 3 years from? Sickels himself says he could be ready come next season.

People understand the difference between college starters and HS starters right? There is no reason why Meyer shouldn't spend the majority of this season in AA with a shot at AAA towards the end. If he keeps doing what he has been doing he will be with the Twins come June 2014.

I hope this is the outcome. Setting a goal for competitiveness in 2014 over 2013 makes the most sense. I hope the negative reviews that Meyers has received are completely wrong and that Ryan knows more about Meyer than Rizzo does.

Legitimate question: Who has the most bankable track record on prospects? Is it Sickels, or someone else?

Probably Terry Ryan.

So it it's Ryan, given his track record on minor league progression rates, Sickels predicting a Meyers call-up in 2013 is a non-starter, right?

Given these facts, the most optimistic scenario appears to be June 2014, and the cautious, go-slow Twins could easily hold that off to Sep. '14 or sometime in 2015.

The other concern I have is the Twins track record of pitchers breaking down and Meyers mechanics issues. Recipe for disaster if not handled better than past history of tall Twins power pitchers who ended up on serious DL time.

Originally Posted by nicksaviking

I'm wondering if people upset with the trade are more upset with the return or how far away the return seems? Had the Twins gotten Tijuan Walker, who is far away but a top ten prospect, would some of you folks still be disappointed? Serious question not trying to provoke.

How about a little of both. The Twins have both current and future needs. The Braves gave up two pitching prospects, one very good, for a career #4-5 starter and a journeyman OF. It would have been nice to sweeten the pot and addressed a 2013 need through a multiple player deal.

Originally Posted by Willihammer

At the risk of derailing this thread, and not offering any explanation why, I'd like to just remind everyone what Beane and Rizzo agreed to last year, because it is so ridiculous in comparison.

Gio Gonzalez: 26, 3 years of team control remaining, 9.4 career RA9 wins over 3+ seasons.

for

right-handers Brad Peacock and A.J. Cole, and lefty Tommy Milone — plus catching prospect Derek Norris. Peacock, Cole and Norris ranked third, fourth and ninth, respectively, in Baseball America’s recent list of the Nationals’ top prospects.

Duly noted.

I understand that we don't need Span. Doesn't Span have alot more value than Meyer? Doesn't Span have more value than Benson, Hicks, ect,?
Why the rush to trade him? Would not Benson or Hicks for Meyer be better? Could we make the same or better deal next fall?

I like the trade. Twins aren't going to be competitive for a few years anyway. Looking at 2015: 1B-Parmalee 2B-Rosario SS-Santana 3B-Sano LF-Revere CF-Hicks RF-Arcia C-DH Maurer DH-Benson-Kepler. Rotation: Meyer-Gibson-Wimmers-Diamond, others in mix Hendriks-Hermsen-Berrios. Bullpen Arms: Perkins-Fien-Thielbar- Tonkin-Pugh-Robertson. This future team looks very appealing to me. Young, Talented, Athletic, Power, Speed. This is the fun part of Baseball. Looking ahead and projecting what the future might look like. The future looks bright in Minnesota a couple or 3 years from now.

Originally Posted by Big City

Wow, surprising it's not a more MLB ready SP like Delgado or Leake, neither of whom I was all that excited about. Good to see we just added our future potential #1. God bless Span…

I really want to know if Meyer's potential eclipse's Delgado's. Since they were going to trade him for half a season of Dempster I figured the Twins could have gotten him for Span, could be wrong. Certainly this time last year Delgado would have been more highly touted. I sure like the way Meyer's stuff reads. He turned down $2 million from the Red Sox to go to Kentucky in 2008. He's a Scott Boras client. I think this guy will overcome any concerns. There's been plenty of tall pitchers who thrived.

Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp

Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave

Is there an ignore feature on this site? Serious question.

No, but I've thought about looking into it, if only for my own sanity.

Whew, I'm glad I'm not the only one who feels that way.

Originally Posted by Top Gun

I understand that we don't need Span. Doesn't Span have alot more value than Meyer? Doesn't Span have more value than Benson, Hicks, ect,?
Why the rush to trade him? Would not Benson or Hicks for Meyer be better? Could we make the same or better deal next fall?

Benson would not land you anything close to Meyer, his value is about as low as it could be currently.
Sure the Twins could have maybe traded Hicks for Meyer, but it would have been a mistake. As nice as 3 years of Span would be, 6+ years of Hicks (for even cheaper overall) is the superior choice to keep for a rebuilding team like the Twins.

It should be noted that Hicks has a greater upside then Span had/has as he is a better fielder, has more speed on the basepaths, has more power, has a better arm and a better eye at the plate. The main question with Hicks at this point is will he be able to continue to hit for averag and continue to increase his power.

Originally Posted by Rick Niedermann

I like the trade. Twins aren't going to be competitive for a few years anyway. Looking at 2015: 1B-Parmalee 2B-Rosario SS-Santana 3B-Sano LF-Revere CF-Hicks RF-Arcia C-DH Maurer DH-Benson-Kepler. Rotation: Meyer-Gibson-Wimmers-Diamond, others in mix Hendriks-Hermsen-Berrios. Bullpen Arms: Perkins-Fien-Thielbar- Tonkin-Pugh-Robertson. This future team looks very appealing to me. Young, Talented, Athletic, Power, Speed. This is the fun part of Baseball. Looking ahead and projecting what the future might look like. The future looks bright in Minnesota a couple or 3 years from now.

Some of those college RP the Twins picked this season could/should be ready by 2015 as well.

Though there are obviously still about 1000 questions with that lineup/rotation you mentioned, but it is fun to project what possibly could be!

Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave

I'm not so sure what is so ridiculous about that, if anything it shows how high of value a major league ready #2 has. Gonzalez was one of the best 5 pitchers in the game this year. Span highly likely won't even be one of the top 5 CF in baseball this year (if that is the comparison you are trying to draw)

I had to read that twice, because I wasn't sure if you were referring to Gonzalez or Millone as the MLB ready #2 (You're referring to Gonzalez, right?)

edit: because, at the time, they were both MLB ready no. 2's, even if BA didn't include Millone in their rankings.

Gonzalez had a great year. Bill James thinks he will regress back into that no. 2.

So, Peacock, Cole, Norris - they were all just gravy for the A's, along with the 3 extra years of team control on their new no. 2 starter.

edit 2: again i don't have an angle. I'm not trying to grill JR or anything, I just can't get over how some of these deals come to pass and others don't.

Originally Posted by Rick Niedermann

I like the trade. Twins aren't going to be competitive for a few years anyway. Looking at 2015: 1B-Parmalee 2B-Rosario SS-Santana 3B-Sano LF-Revere CF-Hicks RF-Arcia C-DH Maurer DH-Benson-Kepler. Rotation: Meyer-Gibson-Wimmers-Diamond, others in mix Hendriks-Hermsen-Berrios. Bullpen Arms: Perkins-Fien-Thielbar- Tonkin-Pugh-Robertson. This future team looks very appealing to me. Young, Talented, Athletic, Power, Speed. This is the fun part of Baseball. Looking ahead and projecting what the future might look like. The future looks bright in Minnesota a couple or 3 years from now.

I like your thinking and the 25-man payroll for 2015 in this configuration is only slightly north of $50M- which gives the club enormous wiggle room for tweaking and signing more top draft picks, international players and especially, FAs in areas of need. Too many on this board are wrapped up in what happens in 2013 when this scenario should be the priority.

Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp

Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave

Is there an ignore feature on this site? Serious question.

No, but I've thought about looking into it, if only for my own sanity.

This is vbulletin. It's there.
In the upper right hand corner, click settings. On the left side there is "edit ignore list".

Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave

Originally Posted by Top Gun

I understand that we don't need Span. Doesn't Span have alot more value than Meyer? Doesn't Span have more value than Benson, Hicks, ect,?
Why the rush to trade him? Would not Benson or Hicks for Meyer be better? Could we make the same or better deal next fall?

Benson would not land you anything close to Meyer, his value is about as low as it could be currently.
Sure the Twins could have maybe traded Hicks for Meyer, but it would have been a mistake. As nice as 3 years of Span would be, 6+ years of Hicks (for even cheaper overall) is the superior choice to keep for a rebuilding team like the Twins.

It should be noted that Hicks has a greater upside then Span had/has as he is a better fielder, has more speed on the basepaths, has more power, has a better arm and a better eye at the plate. The main question with Hicks at this point is will he be able to continue to hit for averag and continue to increase his power.

Vodkadave... You should also mention that the Nationals would rather have Span right now because Span will be of more use in 2013.

Originally Posted by Willihammer

Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave

I'm not so sure what is so ridiculous about that, if anything it shows how high of value a major league ready #2 has. Gonzalez was one of the best 5 pitchers in the game this year. Span highly likely won't even be one of the top 5 CF in baseball this year (if that is the comparison you are trying to draw)

I had to read that twice, because I wasn't sure if you were referring to Gonzalez or Millone as the MLB ready #2 (You're referring to Gonzalez, right?)

edit: because, at the time, they were both MLB ready no. 2's, even if BA didn't include Millone in their rankings.

Gonzalez had a great year. Bill James thinks he will regress back into that no. 2.

So, Peacock, Cole, Norris - they were all just gravy for the A's, along with the 3 extra years of team control on their new no. 2 starter.

edit 2: again i don't have an angle. I'm not trying to grill JR or anything, I just can't get over how some of these deals come to pass and others don't.

Beane>Rizzo>Ryan

Originally Posted by Willihammer

Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave

I'm not so sure what is so ridiculous about that, if anything it shows how high of value a major league ready #2 has. Gonzalez was one of the best 5 pitchers in the game this year. Span highly likely won't even be one of the top 5 CF in baseball this year (if that is the comparison you are trying to draw)

I had to read that twice, because I wasn't sure if you were referring to Gonzalez or Millone as the MLB ready #2 (You're referring to Gonzalez, right?)

edit: because, at the time, they were both MLB ready no. 2's, even if BA didn't include Millone in their rankings.

Gonzalez had a great year. Bill James thinks he will regress back into that no. 2.

So, Peacock, Cole, Norris - they were all just gravy, along with the 3 extra years of team control on their new no. 2 starter.

This may be splitting hairs but I didn't hear anyone calling Millone a sure thing major league ready #2, Gonzalez was and continues to remain the much better pitcher. There is a reason why Millone wasn't cracking the top 100 lists everywhere... Peacock was the centerpiece of that trade, no?

The comparison is still moot as Gonzalez is a top flight pitcher and Span is an above average CF. Which one of those are harder to find on the FA market/trade market?