Thread: Article: Twins trade Denard Span for Nationals' 2011 first round pick

Originally Posted by Alex

He slugs below .700

Most guys not named Barry Bonds do. (OK, OK, you just made a typo and meant OPS.)

Originally Posted by Alex

and his OBP needs to improve.

Ironically, a lack of SLG likely affects the OBP. Without power, he surely faces more pitches in the strike zone, since his opponents will think "why risk walking him, if he gets a hit he's only on first base anyway." I'm sure stats exist that confirm or disprove that guess. Admittedly, guys like Jamey Carroll have the same profile and do manage to work pitchers for some walks, so Ben would do well to pick Jamey's brain, but I have to believe there's a limit when you absolutely won't hit it over the fence when the pitch is down the middle and even ringing doubles are scarce.

Honestly, with his speed he should be getting doubles just through hustle, so it's evident that the ball is coming off his bat so weakly that no pitcher has to fear giving him pitches in the strike zone.

Span is no masher, but demonstrates enough power that pitchers must be careful, and his OBP reflects this, making him a very valuable major league hitter.

Originally Posted by Alex

I'd choose Span over him for sure, but as mentioned, it's less about him than it is about depth in the outfield behind him.

Exactly. This isn't like the AJ trade that was made in order to get an even better player into the lineup. This is to accept a hopefully small downgrade at one position in exchange for a larger upgrade elsewhere - in this case the "where" being "elsed" is also along the time dimension as well as the playing position.

Originally Posted by John Bonnes

This is the kind of trade with which I trust Terry Ryan. Trading an established guy for a lower level minor league guy with some upside. I don't know if Meyer is more than a "C" prospect at this point, and his real test should come when he gets to AA next year, but that may be why he's available.

I am disappointed that the Twins didn't get any pitching or middle infielders to help them next year.

I just think people tended to overvalue Span, especially the last couple yrs with his injuries. After 2009 I think you would have gotten much more for him obviously but with his injuries in 2011/12 he's been really an avg player. He has very little power thus doesn't drive in alot of runs and has hit .300 once. I think this is about what you could expect to get. I'm OK with this trade.

Originally Posted by Dilligaf69

I just think people tended to overvalue Span, especially the last couple yrs with his injuries. After 2009 I think you would have gotten much more for him obviously but with his injuries in 2011/12 he's been really an avg player. He has very little power thus doesn't drive in alot of runs and has hit .300 once. I think this is about what you could expect to get. I'm OK with this trade.

I'd argue that you're underrating him by looking at all the wrong stats. The injuries are definitely a concern and that's what drove down Denard's price... But it doesn't matter if he hit .300 or .280. RBIs are mostly irrelevant for any hitter but they're completely irrelevant for a leadoff man. He gets on base 36% of the time. He plays good defense at an up-the-middle position. That's what you want from your leadoff guy, batting average be damned.

Plus, once he's away from Target Field, I expect to see his slugging percentage go up a fair amount as 3-5 more balls leave the park off his bat.

For me, I guess the trade boils down to a couple key things....

a) I don't think Denard is that great of a leadoff hitter. If my leadoff hitter is going to hit 280 without much power and without a particularly high BB rate, he damn sure better be a terror on the bases. (See: Revere, Ben). Denard had many more doubles than Revere, but how many of Revere's singles did he turn into doubles with a SB? The answer is, Revere basically made up the difference in doubles with his +31 vs +11 on the bases (and at a more sustainable success rate). Other than doubles (advantage, Span) and SB (advantage, Revere) they were almost identical offensively.

b) I don't know what the defensive metrics say, but I know that my eyes tell me that Revere is a much better CF that Span is.

c) Revere costs about 10% of what Span costs (as does the person that will move into the OF to replace Span)

d) There was no realistic path towards playoff contention in 2013.

e) Almost all non-pitching prospects in the organization project as outfielders.

Originally Posted by amjgt

For me, I guess the trade boils down to a couple key things....

a) I don't think Denard is that great of a leadoff hitter. If my leadoff hitter is going to hit 280 without much power and without a particularly high BB rate, he damn sure better be a terror on the bases. (See: Revere, Ben). Denard had many more doubles than Revere, but how many of Revere's singles did he turn into doubles with a SB? The answer is, Revere basically made up the difference in doubles with his +31 vs +11 on the bases (and at a more sustainable success rate). Other than doubles (advantage, Span) and SB (advantage, Revere) they were almost identical offensively.

Denard and Ben had nearly the same number of PAs in 2012. Denard took about 25 more total bases than Revere (not the stat, actual bases). This is using Total Bases (on hits) + Walks + HBP + SB - CS. Revere also went into a serious tailspin after a hot streak that may or may not be repeated (.627, .595 OPS in Aug/Sept) while Denard was on par with his career norms.

Span is the better player by quite a bit. More reliable to perform (if healthy) at the very least.

I'm not saying Denard is a bad player especially with his very reasonable contract taken into consideration, but for me personally, I like a leadoff hitter more like Revere than Span. Neither of them are perfect, but I'd tend toward Revere.

Originally Posted by ashburyjohn

Originally Posted by Alex

He slugs below .700

Most guys not named Barry Bonds do. (OK, OK, you just made a typo and meant OPS.)

Originally Posted by Alex

and his OBP needs to improve.

Ironically, a lack of SLG likely affects the OBP. Without power, he surely faces more pitches in the strike zone, since his opponents will think "why risk walking him, if he gets a hit he's only on first base anyway." I'm sure stats exist that confirm or disprove that guess. Admittedly, guys like Jamey Carroll have the same profile and do manage to work pitchers for some walks, so Ben would do well to pick Jamey's brain, but I have to believe there's a limit when you absolutely won't hit it over the fence when the pitch is down the middle and even ringing doubles are scarce.

Honestly, with his speed he should be getting doubles just through hustle, so it's evident that the ball is coming off his bat so weakly that no pitcher has to fear giving him pitches in the strike zone.

Span is no masher, but demonstrates enough power that pitchers must be careful, and his OBP reflects this, making him a very valuable major league hitter.

Originally Posted by Alex

I'd choose Span over him for sure, but as mentioned, it's less about him than it is about depth in the outfield behind him.

Exactly. This isn't like the AJ trade that was made in order to get an even better player into the lineup. This is to accept a hopefully small downgrade at one position in exchange for a larger upgrade elsewhere - in this case the "where" being "elsed" is also along the time dimension as well as the playing position.

Yeah, you caught me. Meant OPS

Lack of SLG AND lack of OBP affect OPS, as you mention both directly and indirectly. If he were a .350 OBP guy (Span's range) his OPS looks a little better, but I really just use OPS (or meant to) as a reference point. If he adds either doubles (like 20-30 of them) or walks to his repertoire, his value becomes much improved, and they would certainly go hand in hand.

Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave

Originally Posted by Top Gun

It's not what the Twins loss, but waht did they gain in the next 4 years? Nothing!

A guy who has a chance to become our best in house pitcher since Matt Garza is "nothing"?

They also added a bit of payroll flexibility and opened up Arcia and Hicks (both of who could be better then Span) paths to the majors.

I think I have a chance to win the jackpot as long as I buy a ticket.

is this it for TR & the Twins on the trade market? i think it is and they will now concentrate on signing free agent pitchers. Any hope for the 2013 season???? or will Twins finish dead last again in the division for the 3rd year in a row??

I think we forget that Span has had health issues.
I think it can turn out to be an awesome trade and well all have to be patient as there are no quick fixes!
I know one thing for sure, I will miss Span and only wish him the best!!!

No need to quote all of the posters on this page vis` a vis Span/Revere dialogue. I am in the camp that Revere is overrated by the Twins and many posters from this thread. Example: statements like Revere>>>>>>Span or Span's defence improved because of Revere or Revere is a better leadoff hitter than Span--all rubbish. But at least it wasn't as vile as the trash Souhan wrote in the Strib today. I don't know if he is writing from a Twins script or is completely clueless. Consider this: if Revere was better than Span why didn't WASH ask for him instead of Span? The Twins need for starting pitching is so high they wouldn't refuse that trade to get Meyer. Goodness, if that happened they could offer Span to CIN and cross there fingers on Hicks (well actually when they drafted him 1st in '08 they did!) and play him in 2013. Truth is Span is a proven quality player at a good price and he would be selected by basically every MLB team to be their CF (the Twins did last year!) rather than Revere. Yes, there are better CFs on other teams. Trading Span will likely translate into fewer wins unless the next wave is started this year and they fully meet or exceed expectations. If next week doesn't yield quality ML experienced pitchers to make 2013 at least plausibly successful, the Twins might just as well align as this: 1) SP de jure 2) Mauer 3) Parmalee 4) ?? 5) Plouffe 6) Florimon 7) Revere 8) Hicks 9) Arcia DH) Willingham and let the chips fall as they may.

Originally Posted by Kwak

No need to quote all of the posters on this page vis` a vis Span/Revere dialogue. I am in the camp that Revere is overrated by the Twins and many posters from this thread. Example: statements like Revere>>>>>>Span or Span's defence improved because of Revere or Revere is a better leadoff hitter than Span--all rubbish. But at least it wasn't as vile as the trash Souhan wrote in the Strib today. I don't know if he is writing from a Twins script or is completely clueless. Consider this: if Revere was better than Span why didn't WASH ask for him instead of Span? The Twins need for starting pitching is so high they wouldn't refuse that trade to get Meyer. Goodness, if that happened they could offer Span to CIN and cross there fingers on Hicks (well actually when they drafted him 1st in '08 they did!) and play him in 2013. Truth is Span is a proven quality player at a good price and he would be selected by basically every MLB team to be their CF (the Twins did last year!) rather than Revere. Yes, there are better CFs on other teams. Trading Span will likely translate into fewer wins unless the next wave is started this year and they fully meet or exceed expectations. If next week doesn't yield quality ML experienced pitchers to make 2013 at least plausibly successful, the Twins might just as well align as this: 1) SP de jure 2) Mauer 3) Parmalee 4) ?? 5) Plouffe 6) Florimon 7) Revere 8) Hicks 9) Arcia DH) Willingham and let the chips fall as they may.

This, this, and this.

Fielding Bible voters listed Span as the 3rd best defensive CF in baseball. Defensive metrics of qualifying CFs back that up. Revere has not shown he is a better defensive CENTER FIELDER than Span is. Saying he is much better IN CF...there is nothing backing that up.

Now, Revere did rate as a very good RF...definitely...even with that, um, arm...but that's compared to RFs...

Still don't understand the Revere hate around here. He made the majors at 22, two + years before Span. Last year, fWAR gave Span a .5 advantage, which is basically nothing, even though Revere was compared with RFers and Span with CFers. Everyone seems to think that Revere is a finished project for some reason. Cripes, he'll be 25 next year and starting to enter his prime years. He'll get better.

For the record, I'm a big Span fan. I enjoyed his low key style of play...his top notch defense that didn't need to be flashy cause he read the ball of the bat so well. I don't think a player NEEDS to be flashy to be a great defender. Span, like Hardy, are just understated great defensive players.

Now, the trade...hate to see him go...but this trade is for 2015 and beyond. If there are any more trades, I hope they are the same way. Stick to a plan and go for it. Hoping Meyer works out.

Originally Posted by gunnarthor

Still don't understand the Revere hate around here. He made the majors at 22, two + years before Span. Last year, fWAR gave Span a .5 advantage, which is basically nothing, even though Revere was compared with RFers and Span with CFers. Everyone seems to think that Revere is a finished project for some reason. Cripes, he'll be 25 next year and starting to enter his prime years. He'll get better.

Revere got promoted early due to injury...to Span. Span got promoted late because even though he beat out Gomez for the recently vacated CF spot, he was sent back to the minors. Oh and we had a pretty good CF in Span's way before that...Hunter I think his name was...with Cuddyer and Kubel on the team too.

Also, judging players by when the TWINS promote players, well...

Originally Posted by gunnarthor

Still don't understand the Revere hate around here. He made the majors at 22, two + years before Span. Last year, fWAR gave Span a .5 advantage, which is basically nothing, even though Revere was compared with RFers and Span with CFers. Everyone seems to think that Revere is a finished project for some reason. Cripes, he'll be 25 next year and starting to enter his prime years. He'll get better.

Revere's WAR is helped by being compared to RFs...he's a fine defender, but IMO, we can't say he's a better defensive CF than Span is..not yet

Originally Posted by Kwak

No need to quote all of the posters on this page vis` a vis Span/Revere dialogue. I am in the camp that Revere is overrated by the Twins and many posters from this thread. Example: statements like Revere>>>>>>Span or Span's defence improved because of Revere or Revere is a better leadoff hitter than Span--all rubbish. But at least it wasn't as vile as the trash Souhan wrote in the Strib today. I don't know if he is writing from a Twins script or is completely clueless. Consider this: if Revere was better than Span why didn't WASH ask for him instead of Span? The Twins need for starting pitching is so high they wouldn't refuse that trade to get Meyer. Goodness, if that happened they could offer Span to CIN and cross there fingers on Hicks (well actually when they drafted him 1st in '08 they did!) and play him in 2013. Truth is Span is a proven quality player at a good price and he would be selected by basically every MLB team to be their CF (the Twins did last year!) rather than Revere. Yes, there are better CFs on other teams. Trading Span will likely translate into fewer wins unless the next wave is started this year and they fully meet or exceed expectations. If next week doesn't yield quality ML experienced pitchers to make 2013 at least plausibly successful, the Twins might just as well align as this: 1) SP de jure 2) Mauer 3) Parmalee 4) ?? 5) Plouffe 6) Florimon 7) Revere 8) Hicks 9) Arcia DH) Willingham and let the chips fall as they may.

How do you know that no one offered for Revere instead of Span? Maybe they did, but the Twins didn't bite because (a) they think Revere is as good as Span/better than Span/good enough to bridge the gap to Hicks, and (b) Revere costs literally millions of dollars less.

Also, your claim that others' claims about Revere viz. Span are "rubbish" is conclusory. At least offer some evidence instead of dismissing other peoples' points of view out of hand. If all your argument consists of is the fact that it was Span and not Revere traded, then you're working off a whole mess of assumptions that you can't back up.

Originally Posted by rickyriolo

is this it for TR & the Twins on the trade market? i think it is and they will now concentrate on signing free agent pitchers. Any hope for the 2013 season???? or will Twins finish dead last again in the division for the 3rd year in a row??

My opinion is that the nature of the Span trade lays the path for more deals like it, that key toward 2015 rather than 2013. Yes they have to make various deals for 2013, but signings will be best viewed in terms of 2015, e.g. 2-year deals for older pitchers until a new crop is ready, and possibly a trade or two is still in the works that will not by itself make the team stronger for 2013.

Had they instead traded Span for one or two MLB-ready players, that would probably have been it for the trades, because this was in part to reduce a perceived logjam in the outfield.

I don't think it is Revere hate, it is more "Revere hasn't proven he's good yet, but so many people are already crowning him that we are shovelling all kinds of realism on him....". Some people are stating that Revere is better than Span....that seems....not to be true just yet. So, many others are basically pointing out his weaknesses to offset those arguments. But ya, I think he's a very good to great defender that has not YET figured out how to get on base enough to offset his lack of power.