Article: In Terry I Trust

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Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave

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Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp

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Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave

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Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp

Excuses

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The fact is Upton has outperformed him significantly over the last 3 years. Poll 30 GMs in the league and ask them who a btter player is and you will get 30 Upton answers. If Span was considered the better player you would have seen a lot more rumors in regards to the trade and a lot larger names being thrown around.

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Jesus Christ, Dave. I said that if you factor in injuries, the pendulum swings heavily into Upton's favor. Or did you also miss the sentence that read " It's hard to separate the player from the injuries in this case." We were talking hypotheticals, not actual reality. In reality, Span's injury history is a massive drag on his value.

*headdesk*

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He was healthy in 2010 yet posted an OPS about a 100 points less, you write it off as pretty miserable overall, yet still say that taking injuries out of it you'd prefer Span. I was showing you that even when healthy Upton is outperforming him.

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You mean his 2nd full season? Yeah, it's unusual to see a player drop some in his second full season...seems they have a name for that...

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Originally Posted by gunnarthor

Maybe, maybe not. But that's getting away from the first point when you said Upton rates as above average in every single defensive statistic out there. That is clearly not the case.

His UZR has fallen considerably over the last five years. Over the last 3 years, it has been pretty bland. Additionally, bWAR's defensive metric has never liked Upton, making him negative for his career.

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Exactly...

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Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave

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Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp

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Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave

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Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp

Excuses

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The fact is Upton has outperformed him significantly over the last 3 years. Poll 30 GMs in the league and ask them who a btter player is and you will get 30 Upton answers. If Span was considered the better player you would have seen a lot more rumors in regards to the trade and a lot larger names being thrown around.

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Jesus Christ, Dave. I said that if you factor in injuries, the pendulum swings heavily into Upton's favor. Or did you also miss the sentence that read " It's hard to separate the player from the injuries in this case." We were talking hypotheticals, not actual reality. In reality, Span's injury history is a massive drag on his value.

*headdesk*

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He was healthy in 2010 yet posted an OPS about a 100 points less, you write it off as pretty miserable overall, yet still say that taking injuries out of it you'd prefer Span. I was showing you that even when healthy Upton is outperforming him.

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For their careers, Upton has a 105 OPS+, Span a 104. Over the last 5 years, both have a 104. In the same time, Span has a 105 wRC+ to Upton's 106. They are different type of players but about equal in offensive rate stats. (Durability is a different issue).

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Originally Posted by Nick Nelson

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Originally Posted by Jim Crikket

So when I read media reports that Ryan may be looking at a Pohlad-imposed limit near the $90 million mark, it disgusts me.

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Why don't we wait and see how much he actually spends before getting disgusted? I agree with your overall viewpoints about payroll but this seems like needless hand-wringing to me.

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Sorry, I keep forgetting that TD is only for discussion regarding what has actually transpired.

The $90 million figure is not something just being floated out there online by us know-nothings, it's been appearing in "real" media reports, including the beat writers who supposedly have some level of insight (not to mention contacts within the organization itself) that the rest of us don't.

Of course, the Twins do have years of history where they've had ownership approval to dive right in to the free agent market to get top pitching, so why would anyone doubt them, right?

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Originally Posted by mike wants wins

either you are not reading what I am saying, I said it badly, or something else is going on. Because I never once said what you are saying I said. Sometimes I wonder if people are willing to listen to people they do not agree with at all. Because it sure does not feel that way a lot on this site.

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Well, I just had someone say I don't know much about baseball cause I posted an opinion he disagreed with so, yeah, there are people like that here.

First, I have no problem with this trade. I really hope that the Twins are rebuilding.

Second, it is FAR too early in TR2 to reach any conclusions about TR's performance - good or bad. As for trusting him... Trust him for what? trust that he is being honest? I don't think he lies but I do think he is pretty closed lipped (I'm not saying that's bad) and he also knows how to bluff (at least with the public). Trust that he will turn this team around? The jury is still out on that one.

Third, there is not one iota of doubt in my mind that the primary reason why Terry Ryan replaced BS as the Twins' GM is because Terry Ryan is fiscally conservative (a/k/a cheap). THAT is probably the one thing about Terry Ryan that I TRUST absolutely.

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Originally Posted by ThePuck

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Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave

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Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp

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Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave

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Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp

Excuses

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The fact is Upton has outperformed him significantly over the last 3 years. Poll 30 GMs in the league and ask them who a btter player is and you will get 30 Upton answers. If Span was considered the better player you would have seen a lot more rumors in regards to the trade and a lot larger names being thrown around.

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Jesus Christ, Dave. I said that if you factor in injuries, the pendulum swings heavily into Upton's favor. Or did you also miss the sentence that read " It's hard to separate the player from the injuries in this case." We were talking hypotheticals, not actual reality. In reality, Span's injury history is a massive drag on his value.

*headdesk*

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He was healthy in 2010 yet posted an OPS about a 100 points less, you write it off as pretty miserable overall, yet still say that taking injuries out of it you'd prefer Span. I was showing you that even when healthy Upton is outperforming him.

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You mean his 2nd full season? Yeah, it's unusual to see a player drop some in his second full season...seems they have a name for that...

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LOL, he had 411 PA his "rookie" season. If anything 2010 was closer to his "third year". He dropped off from 2008 to 2009 as well.

Heck I am not even bringing up his injury situation with you. Factor that in and it isn't even close.

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Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave

He was healthy in 2010 yet posted an OPS about a 100 points less, you write it off as pretty miserable overall, yet still say that taking injuries out of it you'd prefer Span. I was showing you that even when healthy Upton is outperforming him.

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You're being intentionally obtuse. 2010 Target Field was merciless to Denard, just like it was every lefty on the Twins. Morneau OPSed a whopping .300 points lower at home in 2010 while Mauer OPSed .120 points lower. Denard just had a bad year across the board. His BABIP was .020 lower than 2012 (and WAY lower than 2009) and nothing was going right for the guy. It happens.

With the move to the NL and Washington, it wouldn't surprise me one bit to see Span breakout in 2013 (and I hope he does, he deserves to be on a winner).

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Originally Posted by gunnarthor

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Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave

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Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp

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Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave

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Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp

Excuses

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The fact is Upton has outperformed him significantly over the last 3 years. Poll 30 GMs in the league and ask them who a btter player is and you will get 30 Upton answers. If Span was considered the better player you would have seen a lot more rumors in regards to the trade and a lot larger names being thrown around.

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Jesus Christ, Dave. I said that if you factor in injuries, the pendulum swings heavily into Upton's favor. Or did you also miss the sentence that read " It's hard to separate the player from the injuries in this case." We were talking hypotheticals, not actual reality. In reality, Span's injury history is a massive drag on his value.

*headdesk*

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He was healthy in 2010 yet posted an OPS about a 100 points less, you write it off as pretty miserable overall, yet still say that taking injuries out of it you'd prefer Span. I was showing you that even when healthy Upton is outperforming him.

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For their careers, Upton has a 105 OPS+, Span a 104. Over the last 5 years, both have a 104. In the same time, Span has a 105 wRC+ to Upton's 106. They are different type of players but about equal in offensive rate stats. (Durability is a different issue).

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Teams don't career about what Upton and Span were doing 5 years ago, it's a what have you done for me lately league. Teams look at: What did you do last year? What did you do the last 3 years.

The point is, at this stage who is the more valuable player.
Upton in the last 3 years has significantly better offensive numbers in both OPS and OPS+, Upton has value on the basepaths and Upton is much less of a "health risk" defensively we can go back and forth on various metrics, but overall the past 3 years and even before that rate both as above average CF's.

Span had a nice bounce back year last year but only started to get strong in the 2nd half. I believe a full heathy Span, which I believe he will be next year after seein his 2nd half the last season.

Span's WAR was 3.9, Upton's was 3.3. Seems close when you see it that way. Then when you look at qualifying players and see Span tied for 43rd while Upton is tied for 61, it's a little bit different.

Upton hits HRs...that's his positive. Very low BA, low OBP, LOTS of Ks, below average defensive CF. But he's flashy...that and his 20Hr power gets him a big contract

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Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp

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Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave

He was healthy in 2010 yet posted an OPS about a 100 points less, you write it off as pretty miserable overall, yet still say that taking injuries out of it you'd prefer Span. I was showing you that even when healthy Upton is outperforming him.

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You're being intentionally obtuse. 2010 Target Field was merciless to Denard, just like it was every lefty on the Twins. Morneau OPSed a whopping .300 points lower at home in 2010 while Mauer OPSed .120 points lower. Denard just had a bad year across the board. His BABIP was .020 lower than 2012 (and WAY lower than 2009) and nothing was going right for the guy. It happens.

With the move to the NL and Washington, it wouldn't surprise me one bit to see Span breakout in 2013 (and I hope he does, he deserves to be on a winner).

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Um in 2010 Span actually had an OPS 160 points HIGHER at home on the road and besides so um....what?

If you are saying that Target Field rated as a pitchers park in 2010, you are correct, however Tampa Bay rated as a pitchers park as well, actually quite a bit more, and more overall in its existence.

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Originally Posted by ThePuck

Span had a nice bounce back year last year but only started to get strong in the 2nd half. I believe a full heathy Span, which I believe he will be next year after seein his 2nd half the last season.

Span's WAR was 3.9, Upton's was 3.3. Seems close when you see it that way. Then when you look at qualifying players and see Span tied for 43rd while Upton is tied for 61, it's a little bit different.

Upton hits HRs...that's his positive. Very low BA, low OBP, LOTS of Ks, below average defensive CF. But he's flashy...that and his 20Hr power gets him a big contract

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So now we are moving this argument all the way down to a 2nd half argument? Well in the 2nd half last year Upton improved quite a bit as well (actually quite a bit more then Span) .819 OPS vs .783, and Upton upped his by 140 points vs Spans 80 points (not that any of this really has anything to do with anything)

You bring up WAR, which is very flawed anyways, but it should be noted that Upton posted a 4.1 and 4.1 in 2010/2011 while Span posted a 2.6 and 2.2. So over those three years Upton had a WAR almost 3 wins total higher then Span during that time.

Additionally, again you say below average CF and you are wrong.

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Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave

The point is, at this stage who is the more valuable player.
Upton in the last 3 years has significantly better offensive numbers in both OPS and OPS+, Upton has value on the basepaths and Upton is much less of a "health risk" defensively we can go back and forth on various metrics, but overall the past 3 years and even before that rate both as above average CF's.

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You seem to keep moving your endpoints to suit you. You wanted to use 5 years for defensive stats b/c one year has a sample size issue but most stat guys say use three years for defensive stats. When 1 or 3 years are used, Span is the better defensive player and it isn't particularly close. So you pick 5 which coincides with Upton's best years and Span's worst and also the years defensive stats at the Dome were sorta fuzzy. And that way you get to ignore the downward trend Upton has shown in the defensive stats.

For offense, you won't use 5 years b/c they include Span's best years, so we'll chop it to three, which include Span's injury affected years. But if we use one year or a 5 year time period, we see the offensive differences are basically nil.

And all this was after you used hyperbole to support your nonsense claim that according to all stats, Upton was signficantly better defensively.

You wonder why people are having trouble with your posts?

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Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave

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Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp

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Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave

He was healthy in 2010 yet posted an OPS about a 100 points less, you write it off as pretty miserable overall, yet still say that taking injuries out of it you'd prefer Span. I was showing you that even when healthy Upton is outperforming him.

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You're being intentionally obtuse. 2010 Target Field was merciless to Denard, just like it was every lefty on the Twins. Morneau OPSed a whopping .300 points lower at home in 2010 while Mauer OPSed .120 points lower. Denard just had a bad year across the board. His BABIP was .020 lower than 2012 (and WAY lower than 2009) and nothing was going right for the guy. It happens.

With the move to the NL and Washington, it wouldn't surprise me one bit to see Span breakout in 2013 (and I hope he does, he deserves to be on a winner).

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Um in 2010 Span actually had an OPS 160 points HIGHER at home on the road and besides so um....what?

If you are saying that Target Field rated as a pitchers park in 2010, you are correct, however Tampa Bay rated as a pitchers park as well, actually quite a bit more, and more overall in its existence.

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Span had a higher OPS at home but his splits were so skewed and 2010 Target Field was so brutal to lefties that the only logical conclusion is that the stadium got into his head. Unless you think Adam Dunn suddenly turned into a piece of crap with the move to the White Sox. Guys struggle in new stadiums, new teams, etc. and it impacts them negatively everywhere. Span's peripherals stayed pretty true (LD, GB, FB, BB) while his IFFB actually dropped and, not surprisingly, his HR/FB plummeted to under 3%. His BABIP was also .060 lower than 2009. If that's not a case of "this stadium is ****ing me", I don't know what is. He was one really unlucky dude in 2010.

Tropicana is a pitcher's park, no doubt about it. It's also turf, which helps a speedy guy when he puts it on the ground or lines it to the outfield (which Upton doesn't do often, but he does hit it on the ground 40% of the time). But that's a side argument... I think Upton is a fine player.

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Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave

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Originally Posted by ThePuck

Span had a nice bounce back year last year but only started to get strong in the 2nd half. I believe a full heathy Span, which I believe he will be next year after seein his 2nd half the last season.

Span's WAR was 3.9, Upton's was 3.3. Seems close when you see it that way. Then when you look at qualifying players and see Span tied for 43rd while Upton is tied for 61, it's a little bit different.

Upton hits HRs...that's his positive. Very low BA, low OBP, LOTS of Ks, below average defensive CF. But he's flashy...that and his 20Hr power gets him a big contract

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So now we are moving this argument all the way down to a 2nd half argument? Well in the 2nd half last year Upton improved quite a bit as well (actually quite a bit more then Span) .819 OPS vs .783, and Upton upped his by 140 points vs Spans 80 points (not that any of this really has anything to do with anything)

You bring up WAR, which is very flawed anyways, but it should be noted that Upton posted a 4.1 and 4.1 in 2010/2011 while Span posted a 2.6 and 2.2. So over those three years Upton had a WAR almost 3 wins total higher then Span during that time.

Additionally, again you say below average CF and you are wrong.

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yeah, you're right...Upton is much better than Span...ridiculous to think otherwise. Also ridiculous to think he's a below average defender when the metrics over the last three years shows all his negative defensive runs saved, his UZR a whopping combined .8 over the last three years ( well in the negative this year) and the Fielding Bible award voters completely leaving his name off their ballots the last two years. I'm the one who is wrong as to the kind of defender he is now.

I'm done, you've completely turned me around...you're right, I clearly know very little about baseball..

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Originally Posted by gunnarthor

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Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave

The point is, at this stage who is the more valuable player.
Upton in the last 3 years has significantly better offensive numbers in both OPS and OPS+, Upton has value on the basepaths and Upton is much less of a "health risk" defensively we can go back and forth on various metrics, but overall the past 3 years and even before that rate both as above average CF's.

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You seem to keep moving your endpoints to suit you. You wanted to use 5 years for defensive stats b/c one year has a sample size issue but most stat guys say use three years for defensive stats. When 1 or 3 years are used, Span is the better defensive player and it isn't particularly close. So you pick 5 which coincides with Upton's best years and Span's worst and also the years defensive stats at the Dome were sorta fuzzy. And that way you get to ignore the downward trend Upton has shown in the defensive stats.

For offense, you won't use 5 years b/c they include Span's best years, so we'll chop it to three, which include Span's injury affected years. But if we use one year or a 5 year time period, we see the offensive differences are basically nil.

And all this was after you used hyperbole to support your nonsense claim that according to all stats, Upton was signficantly better defensively.

You wonder why people are having trouble with your posts?

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Over the next three years, when considering the overall player ability and the contracts, who do you think will be more valuable to his club? Upton or Span?

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Originally Posted by ThePuck

Over the next three years, when considering the overall player ability and the contracts, who do you think will be more valuable to his club? Upton or Span?

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Yeah, this was never about the contracts as I never contended that part. But way to try to grossly skew the argument at the last second after I pointed out how Upton has been the superior player the past 3 years.

This trade will look pretty good in 2 years when Meyer looks dominating in a Twins uniform and Span is on the 15 day DL which turns into 60 days with a sprained foot.

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Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave

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Originally Posted by ThePuck

Over the next three years, when considering the overall player ability and the contracts, who do you think will be more valuable to his club? Upton or Span?

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Yeah, this was never about the contracts as I never contended that part. But way to try to grossly skew the argument at the last second after I pointed out how Upton has been the superior player the past 3 years.

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No, I was asking him a different question..a different question free of our debate...

But, again, I'd still take Span...I've already said that more than once. I believe he's the better overall player. I don't back down from that.

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Originally Posted by gunnarthor

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Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave

The point is, at this stage who is the more valuable player.
Upton in the last 3 years has significantly better offensive numbers in both OPS and OPS+, Upton has value on the basepaths and Upton is much less of a "health risk" defensively we can go back and forth on various metrics, but overall the past 3 years and even before that rate both as above average CF's.

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You seem to keep moving your endpoints to suit you. You wanted to use 5 years for defensive stats b/c one year has a sample size issue but most stat guys say use three years for defensive stats. When 1 or 3 years are used, Span is the better defensive player and it isn't particularly close. So you pick 5 which coincides with Upton's best years and Span's worst and also the years defensive stats at the Dome were sorta fuzzy. And that way you get to ignore the downward trend Upton has shown in the defensive stats.

For offense, you won't use 5 years b/c they include Span's best years, so we'll chop it to three, which include Span's injury affected years. But if we use one year or a 5 year time period, we see the offensive differences are basically nil.

And all this was after you used hyperbole to support your nonsense claim that according to all stats, Upton was signficantly better defensively.

You wonder why people are having trouble with your posts?

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The only reason I brought up his 5 years prior of defensive stats was the fact that he was being called "below average" defensively because of one years worth of UZR data. I brought up the 5 years to show that when looking at advanced defensive metrics it is often foolish to just look at one year, hell If we still look at the two years prior to 2012 UZR data Upton still shows up as a positive. The fact that he didn't get a vote in the fielding bible this year means nothing to me.

Also, I never said Upton was better defensively then Span, I just said that calling Span above average while Upton below average was disingenuous for the sake of an argument.