Thread: Article: In Terry I Trust

Originally Posted by tellis205

This trade will look pretty good in 2 years when Meyer looks dominating in a Twins uniform and Span is on the 15 day DL which turns into 60 days with a sprained foot.

I doubt the DL part, I don't think a player getting a concussion makes him injury prone, but I'm okay with the trade. It's a move for the future. I hope all other trades, if there are any more, go the same route.

Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave

The only reason I brought up his 5 years prior of defensive stats was the fact that he was being called "below average" defensively because of one years worth of UZR data.

So when I mentioned the Fielding Bible award voters (who judge defenders for a living) not giving him a vote and his negative defensive runs saved in 2010 and 2011, I was just using one year of data...and ONLY UZR? That's Interesting. Maybe one needs to go back and look at that post. On top of that, are you or aren't you the one who said all defensive metrics show he's an above average defender? A combined UZR of .8 over the last three years and an average of -10 defensive runs saved over the last three years show he's above average?

Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp

His BABIP was also .060 lower than 2009. If that's not a case of "this stadium is ****ing me", I don't know what is. He was one really unlucky dude in 2010.

I'm not going to debate your "TF is tough on lefties" because like I stated before, Span isn't your typical left handed batter.

As far as you calling him a really unlucky dude in 2010 you may be only partiall correct. Couldn't it be argued that his BABIP in 2009 (.353) was in fact pretty "lucky"? Especially since he hasn't come within 35 pts of that number since then?

Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave

Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp

His BABIP was also .060 lower than 2009. If that's not a case of "this stadium is ****ing me", I don't know what is. He was one really unlucky dude in 2010.

I'm not going to debate your "TF is tough on lefties" because like I stated before, Span isn't your typical left handed batter.

As far as you calling him a really unlucky dude in 2010 you may be only partiall correct. Couldn't it be argued that his BABIP in 2009 (.353) was in fact pretty "lucky"? Especially since he hasn't come within 35 pts of that number since then?

Oh, absolutely. His 2009 BABIP was extremely lucky. Six of one, half dozen of the other, which is why I initially referenced his 2012 BABIP, which was still .020 higher than 2010.

If you're allowed to use Span's 2010 against him, it's only fair to come down hard on Upton for his 2012, where he didn't even get on base 30% of the time. Unless you're knocking 40 balls out of the park, that's awful. Weighting OBP at 1.5-1.8:1 versus slugging (about where it should be weighted depending on who you talk to), Span was considerably better in 2012 than Upton.

Again, I don't think one player is significantly better than the other. I only stated that if injuries were no concern, I think I'd rather have Span because he makes less outs.

Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp

Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave

Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp

His BABIP was also .060 lower than 2009. If that's not a case of "this stadium is ****ing me", I don't know what is. He was one really unlucky dude in 2010.

I'm not going to debate your "TF is tough on lefties" because like I stated before, Span isn't your typical left handed batter.

As far as you calling him a really unlucky dude in 2010 you may be only partiall correct. Couldn't it be argued that his BABIP in 2009 (.353) was in fact pretty "lucky"? Especially since he hasn't come within 35 pts of that number since then?

Oh, absolutely. His 2009 BABIP was extremely lucky. Six of one, half dozen of the other, which is why I initially referenced his 2012 BABIP, which was still .020 higher than 2010.

If you're allowed to use Span's 2010 against him, it's only fair to come down hard on Upton for his 2012, where he didn't even get on base 30% of the time. Unless you're knocking 40 balls out of the park, that's awful.

and his BA under .250 and his 169Ks

Originally Posted by ThePuck

Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave

The only reason I brought up his 5 years prior of defensive stats was the fact that he was being called "below average" defensively because of one years worth of UZR data.

So when I mentioned his negative defensive runs saved in 2010 and 2011, I was just using one year of data? That's Interesting. On top of that, are you or aren't you the one who said all defensive metrics show he's an above average defender? A combined UZR of .8 over the last three years and an average of -10 defensive runs saved over the last three years show he's above average?

I already mentioned that I prefer to use UZR, and also pointed out that within the last 3 years Span had a negative RS as well. Does that mean he is below average?

Call him what you want, the fact is calling Span "Above Average" while dismissing Upton as "Below Average" was incorrect as it was stating that one player is significantly better defensively, when that just isn't the case.

On the other side of things, I show how Upton is significantly more valuable as a runner and a hitter, and you just scoff and make snarky "well chicks dig the long ball derp" quips while ignoring that fact that he has outperformed him quite a bit OPS and OPS+ wise, and as far as base path value goes? It's not even close.

Oh, and this doesn't even take into fact that Span has some health questions moving forward.

Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp

Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave

Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp

His BABIP was also .060 lower than 2009. If that's not a case of "this stadium is ****ing me", I don't know what is. He was one really unlucky dude in 2010.

I'm not going to debate your "TF is tough on lefties" because like I stated before, Span isn't your typical left handed batter.

As far as you calling him a really unlucky dude in 2010 you may be only partiall correct. Couldn't it be argued that his BABIP in 2009 (.353) was in fact pretty "lucky"? Especially since he hasn't come within 35 pts of that number since then?

Oh, absolutely. His 2009 BABIP was extremely lucky. Six of one, half dozen of the other, which is why I initially referenced his 2012 BABIP, which was still .020 higher than 2010.

If you're allowed to use Span's 2010 against him, it's only fair to come down hard on Upton for his 2012, where he didn't even get on base 30% of the time. Unless you're knocking 40 balls out of the park, that's awful. Weighting OBP at 1.5-1.8:1 versus slugging (about where it should be weighted depending on who you talk to), Span was considerably better in 2012 than Upton.

Funny I could have sworn you were one of the people saying the Twins should have kept Hardy around, while other people were crying about his .310 OBP.

So now its all about OBP? Did Upton have his warts this year? no doubt. But if you look at everything all together with salary taken out of the picture its Upton in a landslide. If you take injuries out of the picture it's still Upton, even with your weighted OPS average Upton outperformed Span over the past 3 years.

Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave

Originally Posted by ThePuck

Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave

The only reason I brought up his 5 years prior of defensive stats was the fact that he was being called "below average" defensively because of one years worth of UZR data.

So when I mentioned his negative defensive runs saved in 2010 and 2011, I was just using one year of data? That's Interesting. On top of that, are you or aren't you the one who said all defensive metrics show he's an above average defender? A combined UZR of .8 over the last three years and an average of -10 defensive runs saved over the last three years show he's above average?

I already mentioned that I prefer to use UZR, and also pointed out that within the last 3 years Span had a negative RS as well. Does that mean he is below average?

Call him what you want, the fact is calling Span "Above Average" while dismissing Upton as "Below Average" was incorrect as it was stating that one player is significantly better defensively, when that just isn't the case.

On the other side of things, I show how Upton is significantly more valuable as a runner and a hitter, and you just scoff and make snarky "well chicks dig the long ball derp" quips while ignoring that fact that he has outperformed him quite a bit OPS and OPS+ wise, and as far as base path value goes? It's not even close.

Oh, and this doesn't even take into fact that Span has some health questions moving forward.

Oh, you prefer to use UZR...so you prefer to use stats that help your debate and discard those that don't. Even though Fangraph does both stats, only one has merit? UZR doesn't really help you though. Not for the last three years. And Span DOES NOT have a negative DRS over the last three years in CF. He had 20 this year, 9 in 2011 (while only playing half a season, BTW) and a -5 in 2010. That's not a negative, that's a big positive.

And don't talk to me about snarky comments...you began our debate saying I didn't know baseball cause you didn't agree with my opinion. Doesn't get much snarkier than that. Or is it only okay when you do it?

Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave

Funny I could have sworn you were one of the people saying the Twins should have kept Hardy around, while other people were crying about his .310 OBP.

So now its all about OBP? Did Upton have his warts this year? no doubt. But if you look at everything all together with salary taken out of the picture its Upton in a landslide. If you take injuries out of the picture it's still Upton, even with your weighted OPS average Upton outperformed Span over the past 3 years.

Are you ****ing kidding me, Dave? I wanted Hardy around because he's not goddamned awful and he plays shortstop (very well). Given the Twins history of middle infielders, who didn't want that? Hardy's OBP is not optimal but when your other options include All-Stars like (fill in name of god-awful Twins middle infielder here), I'd take the corpse of Honus Wagner over those guys.

But when given an option, I'll always take the guy who makes less outs over the guy who can't get on base. Over the course of a season, that's the best way to win baseball games. I'm also the guy that constantly repeats "the most important thing in baseball is not getting out".

Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp

Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave

Funny I could have sworn you were one of the people saying the Twins should have kept Hardy around, while other people were crying about his .310 OBP.

So now its all about OBP? Did Upton have his warts this year? no doubt. But if you look at everything all together with salary taken out of the picture its Upton in a landslide. If you take injuries out of the picture it's still Upton, even with your weighted OPS average Upton outperformed Span over the past 3 years.

Are you ****ing kidding me, Dave? I wanted Hardy around because he's not goddamned awful and he plays shortstop (very well). Given the Twins history of middle infielders, who didn't want that? Hardy's OBP is not optimal but when your other options include All-Stars like (fill in name of god-awful Twins middle infielder here), I'd take the corpse of Honus Wagner over those guys.

But when given an option, I'll always take the guy who makes less outs over the guy who can't get on base. Over the course of a season, that's the best way to win baseball games. I'm also the guy that constantly repeats "the most important thing in baseball is not getting out".

Carroll had a higher OBP then Span last year, and significantly higher then Hardy (and Hardy as a Twin). Does that mean you prefer Carroll at SS over Hardy?

Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave

Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp

Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave

Funny I could have sworn you were one of the people saying the Twins should have kept Hardy around, while other people were crying about his .310 OBP.

So now its all about OBP? Did Upton have his warts this year? no doubt. But if you look at everything all together with salary taken out of the picture its Upton in a landslide. If you take injuries out of the picture it's still Upton, even with your weighted OPS average Upton outperformed Span over the past 3 years.

Are you ****ing kidding me, Dave? I wanted Hardy around because he's not goddamned awful and he plays shortstop (very well). Given the Twins history of middle infielders, who didn't want that? Hardy's OBP is not optimal but when your other options include All-Stars like (fill in name of god-awful Twins middle infielder here), I'd take the corpse of Honus Wagner over those guys.

But when given an option, I'll always take the guy who makes less outs over the guy who can't get on base. Over the course of a season, that's the best way to win baseball games. I'm also the guy that constantly repeats "the most important thing in baseball is not getting out".

Carroll had a higher OBP then Span last year, and significantly higher then Hardy (and Hardy as a Twin). Does that mean you prefer Carroll at SS over Hardy?

Now you're being intentionally dense just to confuse the argument. I already stated how I felt OBP should be weighted compared to SLG.

The Puck: To simplify this all a bit again:

If Span was a free agent this off-season, would some team give him a 5 year/ 75 mil contract?

I will hang up and listen at this point since you obviously aren't going to change your mind on this topic.

Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp

Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave

Funny I could have sworn you were one of the people saying the Twins should have kept Hardy around, while other people were crying about his .310 OBP.

So now its all about OBP? Did Upton have his warts this year? no doubt. But if you look at everything all together with salary taken out of the picture its Upton in a landslide. If you take injuries out of the picture it's still Upton, even with your weighted OPS average Upton outperformed Span over the past 3 years.

Are you ****ing kidding me, Dave? I wanted Hardy around because he's not goddamned awful and he plays shortstop (very well). Given the Twins history of middle infielders, who didn't want that? Hardy's OBP is not optimal but when your other options include All-Stars like (fill in name of god-awful Twins middle infielder here), I'd take the corpse of Honus Wagner over those guys.

But when given an option, I'll always take the guy who makes less outs over the guy who can't get on base. Over the course of a season, that's the best way to win baseball games. I'm also the guy that constantly repeats "the most important thing in baseball is not getting out".

Not to mention, even injured, Hardy had the best UZR/150 of any shortstop in his one year with us. Defense.

Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp

Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave

Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp

Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave

Funny I could have sworn you were one of the people saying the Twins should have kept Hardy around, while other people were crying about his .310 OBP.

So now its all about OBP? Did Upton have his warts this year? no doubt. But if you look at everything all together with salary taken out of the picture its Upton in a landslide. If you take injuries out of the picture it's still Upton, even with your weighted OPS average Upton outperformed Span over the past 3 years.

Are you ****ing kidding me, Dave? I wanted Hardy around because he's not goddamned awful and he plays shortstop (very well). Given the Twins history of middle infielders, who didn't want that? Hardy's OBP is not optimal but when your other options include All-Stars like (fill in name of god-awful Twins middle infielder here), I'd take the corpse of Honus Wagner over those guys.

But when given an option, I'll always take the guy who makes less outs over the guy who can't get on base. Over the course of a season, that's the best way to win baseball games. I'm also the guy that constantly repeats "the most important thing in baseball is not getting out".

Carroll had a higher OBP then Span last year, and significantly higher then Hardy (and Hardy as a Twin). Does that mean you prefer Carroll at SS over Hardy?

Now you're being intentionally dense just to confuse the argument. I already stated how I felt OBP should be weighted compared to SLG.

You were the one who just said "But when given an option, I'll always take the guy who makes less outs over the guy who can't get on base"

JJ Hardy had a .286 OBP last year. Does that mean you will always take Carroll over him?

Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave

Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp

Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave

Funny I could have sworn you were one of the people saying the Twins should have kept Hardy around, while other people were crying about his .310 OBP.

So now its all about OBP? Did Upton have his warts this year? no doubt. But if you look at everything all together with salary taken out of the picture its Upton in a landslide. If you take injuries out of the picture it's still Upton, even with your weighted OPS average Upton outperformed Span over the past 3 years.

Are you ****ing kidding me, Dave? I wanted Hardy around because he's not goddamned awful and he plays shortstop (very well). Given the Twins history of middle infielders, who didn't want that? Hardy's OBP is not optimal but when your other options include All-Stars like (fill in name of god-awful Twins middle infielder here), I'd take the corpse of Honus Wagner over those guys.

But when given an option, I'll always take the guy who makes less outs over the guy who can't get on base. Over the course of a season, that's the best way to win baseball games. I'm also the guy that constantly repeats "the most important thing in baseball is not getting out".

Carroll had a higher OBP then Span last year, and significantly higher then Hardy (and Hardy as a Twin). Does that mean you prefer Carroll at SS over Hardy?

Well, hmm, him being one of the very best shortstops in baseball has to be factored in. Overall player ability. Not any one stat.

Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave

You were the one who just said "But when given an option, I'll always take the guy who makes less outs over the guy who can't get on base"

JJ Hardy had a .286 OBP last year. Does that mean you will always take Carroll over him?

Seriously. Stop being a prick. You know exactly what I meant by that statement.

But yeah, there's a chance I'd take 2012 Carroll over 2012 Hardy. JJ was pretty bad this year.

I'm done with this debate. It's been, well, interesting

Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp

Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave

You were the one who just said "But when given an option, I'll always take the guy who makes less outs over the guy who can't get on base"

JJ Hardy had a .286 OBP last year. Does that mean you will always take Carroll over him?

Seriously. Stop being a prick. You know exactly what I meant by that statement.

But yeah, there's a chance I'd take 2012 Carroll over 2012 Hardy. JJ was pretty bad this year.

Actually I thought I knew what you meant, but now you are saying you would rather have had Carroll last year then Hardy so now I am confused.
Ben Revere had a .333 OBP last year does this mean you would take him over Upton as well moving forward? (honest question)

Originally Posted by ThePuck

I'm done with this debate. It's been, well, interesting

I can't help but notice you didn't answer the question:

If Span were a free agent this year, would he get a 5/75 contract?

If you think he would, then I guess he has at least the same value as Upton, if you think he wouldn't, then I guess he wouldn't have as much value. Yes or no?

Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave

Actually I thought I knew what you meant, but now you are saying you would rather have had Carroll last year then Hardy so now I am confused.
Ben Revere had a .333 OBP last year does this mean you would take him over Upton as well moving forward? (honest question)

If I knew Carroll would post the numbers he did and Hardy the numbers he did in 2012, there's a small chance I'd take Carroll. A 60 point OBP advantage is a lot but it still might be countered by Hardy's defense. I'd have to look into the numbers more closely. But speaking purely from an offensive perspective, Carroll had the better season by a considerable margin (as weird as that sounds to say).

As for Revere vs. Upton, no way. Upton all day. Revere may have posted a .035 higher OBP but Upton slugged a full .100 higher.