Thread: Gammons: Red Sox willing to take on all of Mauer's contract

Originally Posted by Oxtung

I think many of you are quick to dismiss this idea. While trading Mauer would certainly hurt in the short term it might be the best long term option. We aren't going to be competitive in 2013 (unless TR all of a sudden decides to spend on FA). We are going to be a transitioning team in 2014. 2015 we might be competitive but 2016+ is looking potentially very strong.

In 2013 & '14 Mauer is going to be at his peak but will be wasted on bad teams. By the time 2015 rolls around he will be 32 years old. He probably will be out from behind the plate full time and his hitting could very well be starting to slide. Now you've got years 32-35 of Mauer while you are actually good but he is not (this is all relative of course, he could still put up OK numbers but probably not near his MVP days that he is getting paid for).

The real kicker here is the payroll flexibility. We will be paying Mauer $23M for what almost certainly won't be $23M worth of production. We will have so much money wrapped up in Mauer that we won't have much money to go out and sign (or re-sign) that piece we need to put us over the top.

While in the short term trading Mauer would be a big PR hit in the long term the payroll flexibility combined with hopefully a very competitive team in 2015+ might making it beneficial.

First, Mauer isn't going to waive his no-trade clause so it's probably a moot point. But look at this years FA class. Where would the Twins spend the money in the future? They might lock up young prospects like Sano on deals that buy out their first few years of free agency but if they trade Mauer, I think it would mean that they are set at payrolls around 70-80m. I don't think they'd ever. use FA to sign a guy like Anibal Sanchez

However generally when a team says they are willing to eat all of a salary, the implication is that they will do so in exchange for not including top prospects and for Mauer, I'd want them all.

The Twins are most likely going to be relying on the cheap guys on the farm for most of the next decade, unless they suddenly decide to get in on Greinke or THE top ace each of the next half dozen years, payroll shouldn't be a concern going forward Mauer's contract included.

Boston has 3 catchers on their roster already - Salty, Ross and Napoli - not sure they would need another even platooning those at other positions, but if we did deal (which won;t happen and I am not advocating) I am sure we would get one of those back.

For me, Boston is willing to eat ALL the contract makes me listen BUT then it still goes down to getting acceptable value in players/prospects......3-4 of them. If THAT is what Boston will do, lets do it.....if not, thanks but no thanks

Originally Posted by wavedog

Boston has 3 catchers on their roster already - Salty, Ross and Napoli - not sure they would need another even platooning those at other positions, but if we did deal (which won;t happen and I am not advocating) I am sure we would get one of those back.

I think the Sox already are projecting Napoli for some 1B duties. And they have talked about moving Salty. He would be a good get in a package deal, along with their top MI prospect and two SPs, a vet and prospect. Hey, after this last trade and the Red Sox's desperate need for relevancy again, anything's possible.

Payroll flexibility only matters if you are going to spend money.....still have not seen that willingness.

Originally Posted by greengoblinrulz

For me, Boston is willing to eat ALL the contract makes me listen BUT then it still goes down to getting acceptable value in players/prospects......3-4 of them. If THAT is what Boston will do, lets do it.....if not, thanks but no thanks

Let's see how desperate they are. How about their top 2 MI prospects (who are clearly better, now as minor league prospects, than what the Twins plan on playing in 2013), Salty and Lester?

If the Sox offered up Middlebrooks, Lavarnway, Boegarts, Barnes and Webster you'd have to listen, right???

Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp

Originally Posted by Oxtung

We will be paying Mauer $23M for what almost certainly won't be $23M worth of production.

Given what we've seen in the past few weeks, I very much think the Twins will be getting $23m of production from Mauer. Guys like BJ Upton are getting $15m a year now. Jose Reyes goes from $10m to $22m in 2014. Greinke, a borderline #1 at best, looks to approach $20m a year. Sanchez, who isn't as good as Greinke, is asking for $16-17m.

I'm perfectly content with Mauer at $23m, provided he doesn't completely break down.

FWIW, you can add the 2012 WAR of Greinke AND Sanchez together and they're about the same value as Mauer by himself.

The Twins very well might get $23M of production from Mauer this year and perhaps next year. Maybe even 2015. But how about when Joe is 33, 34, 35 years old? Those are the years we are going to be competitive. Those are the years we could really use that $23M to go out and get that [insert position of need] we are missing. Those are also the years Joe is going to be getting worse and worse. His value will be dropping, especially since he very well might be DH'ing at that point, but his salary will remain $23M.

The Twins are going to continue to lose fans with or without Joe Mauer on the team. That is what happens when you're bad. Unless TR makes a big splash in the FA pitching market we're going to be bad this year and quite possibly next year as well. Those same fans will return when a good product is on the field as shown by the early 2000's attendance resurgence. Joe Mauer isn't going to save this team from poor attendance numbers. But he very well could prevent this team from making a move in 2017 when the Twins are competitive.

So the question ultimately comes down to are a few thousand fans a game in 2013 &2014 worth $23M when the Twins are competitive again? Keep in mind the Twins could use that $23M to go out and get a big name splash to replace Joe Mauer. How does Ryan Dempster AND Shaun Marcum sound?

Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp

Originally Posted by mike wants wins

At first I thought this might be a good idea. But since it is clear they refuse to sign legit free agents, I am now opposed to this idea.

Given this market, they're not going to get somebody as good (much less better) than Mauer for $23m. It doesn't make any sense to trade the guy because all you have to do after that is go overpay somebody else.

With salary inflation this year and next, i expect joes contract will be looked at differently

Originally Posted by Oxtung

So the question ultimately comes down to are a few thousand fans a game in 2013 &2014 worth $23M when the Twins are competitive again? Keep in mind the Twins could use that $23M to go out and get a big name splash to replace Joe Mauer. How does Ryan Dempster AND Shaun Marcum sound?

While I don't entirely disagree with much of your post, I want to focus on this. Dempster and Marcum will hamstring the payroll as bad or worse than Mauer and even when combined, equate to a similar amount of wins (Mauer is roughly a 5 win player, Marcum/Dempster combined are 5 win players). Both are older than Mauer and from 2013-2015 (not getting either for less than three years, probably more with Marcum), will be more expensive and declining more rapidly than Joe due to advanced age (mostly Dempster).

To boot, to get both those guys, you're looking at paying at least $25m a year, probably more.

Keeping Mauer is a risk. There's no denying that. But considering free agent salaries this offseason, Mauer's production per dollar is actually good compared to what these other clowns are getting on the market. It's absurd to think that BJ Upton is a $15m player or that Jeremy-freakin-Guthrie is an $8m guy. And just LOL at Shane Victorino at $13m.

This offseason is bananas. If you even manage to get rid of Mauer, that $23m you spend to replace him is going to bring you less in return than Joe.

With that said, I'm not against trading him if a team offers the farm for ol' Joe.

Originally Posted by Big City

If the Sox offered up Middlebrooks, Lavarnway, Boegarts, Barnes and Webster you'd have to listen, right???

Exactly! Im indifferent about trading Mauer. I love watching him play. But if its best for the team to trade em, do what ya gotta do!

Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp

Originally Posted by Oxtung

So the question ultimately comes down to are a few thousand fans a game in 2013 &2014 worth $23M when the Twins are competitive again? Keep in mind the Twins could use that $23M to go out and get a big name splash to replace Joe Mauer. How does Ryan Dempster AND Shaun Marcum sound?

While I don't entirely disagree with much of your post, I want to focus on this. Dempster and Marcum will hamstring the payroll as bad or worse than Mauer and even when combined, equate to a similar amount of wins (Mauer is roughly a 5 win player, Marcum/Dempster combined are 5 win players). Both are older than Mauer and from 2013-2015 (not getting either for less than three years, probably more with Marcum), will be more expensive and declining more rapidly than Joe due to advanced age (mostly Dempster).

To boot, to get both those guys, you're looking at paying at least $25m a year, probably more.

Keeping Mauer is a risk. There's no denying that. But considering free agent salaries this offseason, Mauer's production per dollar is actually good compared to what these other clowns are getting on the market. It's absurd to think that BJ Upton is a $15m player or that Jeremy-freakin-Guthrie is an $8m guy. And just LOL at Shane Victorino at $13m.

This offseason is bananas. If you even manage to get rid of Mauer, that $23m you spend to replace him is going to bring you less in return than Joe.

With that said, I'm not against trading him if a team offers the farm for ol' Joe.

The Twins moves are indicating that a chief priority in rebuilding the pitching staff is getting much younger. The days of Pavano signings are over for now. They appear to be aligning a team like the early 80s team, a young group all playing for a pittance and taking their lumps while maturing together to make a strong run like they did from 87-92 and 04-10. This philosophy demands that if the Sox would make an offer something close to Middlebrooks, Bogaerts, Salty and a SP, you have to make that deal for Mauer.

Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp

Originally Posted by Oxtung

So the question ultimately comes down to are a few thousand fans a game in 2013 &2014 worth $23M when the Twins are competitive again? Keep in mind the Twins could use that $23M to go out and get a big name splash to replace Joe Mauer. How does Ryan Dempster AND Shaun Marcum sound?

While I don't entirely disagree with much of your post, I want to focus on this. Dempster and Marcum will hamstring the payroll as bad or worse than Mauer and even when combined, equate to a similar amount of wins (Mauer is roughly a 5 win player, Marcum/Dempster combined are 5 win players). Both are older than Mauer and from 2013-2015 (not getting either for less than three years, probably more with Marcum), will be more expensive and declining more rapidly than Joe due to advanced age (mostly Dempster).

To boot, to get both those guys, you're looking at paying at least $25m a year, probably more.

Keeping Mauer is a risk. There's no denying that. But considering free agent salaries this offseason, Mauer's production per dollar is actually good compared to what these other clowns are getting on the market. It's absurd to think that BJ Upton is a $15m player or that Jeremy-freakin-Guthrie is an $8m guy. And just LOL at Shane Victorino at $13m.

This offseason is bananas. If you even manage to get rid of Mauer, that $23m you spend to replace him is going to bring you less in return than Joe.

With that said, I'm not against trading him if a team offers the farm for ol' Joe.

I don't really disagree with much of what you're saying but you seem to be missing my larger point. Dempster and Marcum only lock that $23M up for 2-3 years. That means when the Twins need payroll flexibility the most they will have it. Come 2016 when we need that starting 2B we will have the cash to go get him.

Here's another bonus of the "Dempster/Marcum" approach (again, it could be any players...I just threw those 2 out there). Mauer's contract makes him very difficult to move. Dempster/Marcum could very well be tradeable in the future for more prospects. Which of course then frees up the $23M again to go sign some big names the next season. Does anyone think that there won't be a market in July or next December for good starting pitching?

Of course, as someone said earlier, this is all probably a moot point. I find it HIGHLY unlikely that Mauer would wave his no trade clause.

Originally Posted by Oxtung

I don't really disagree with much of what you're saying but you seem to be missing my larger point. Dempster and Marcum only lock that $23M up for 2-3 years.

This is where we're disagreeing and this changes the entire argument based on perspective.

I think Dempster gets three years and Marcum gets four. I don't see anybody outside of scrubs getting two year deals this offseason.

As for trading either of them in a year or two, that is definitely something to consider.

Make Dustin Pedroia part of the package coming back, and I'm on board...

Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp

Originally Posted by Oxtung

I don't really disagree with much of what you're saying but you seem to be missing my larger point. Dempster and Marcum only lock that $23M up for 2-3 years.

This is where we're disagreeing and this changes the entire argument based on perspective.

I think Dempster gets three years and Marcum gets four. I don't see anybody outside of scrubs getting two year deals this offseason.

As for trading either of them in a year or two, that is definitely something to consider.

I think I am right back to my original point. People are seemingly dismissing this out of hand. I think that is a mistake. There are some potentially very big benefits. Just how big those benefits ended up depends on exactly how things would play out. I don't think this is a cut and dry "HELL NO!" answer I guess.

Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp

Originally Posted by Oxtung

So the question ultimately comes down to are a few thousand fans a game in 2013 &2014 worth $23M when the Twins are competitive again? Keep in mind the Twins could use that $23M to go out and get a big name splash to replace Joe Mauer. How does Ryan Dempster AND Shaun Marcum sound?

While I don't entirely disagree with much of your post, I want to focus on this. Dempster and Marcum will hamstring the payroll as bad or worse than Mauer and even when combined, equate to a similar amount of wins (Mauer is roughly a 5 win player, Marcum/Dempster combined are 5 win players). Both are older than Mauer and from 2013-2015 (not getting either for less than three years, probably more with Marcum), will be more expensive and declining more rapidly than Joe due to advanced age (mostly Dempster).

To boot, to get both those guys, you're looking at paying at least $25m a year, probably more.

Keeping Mauer is a risk. There's no denying that. But considering free agent salaries this offseason, Mauer's production per dollar is actually good compared to what these other clowns are getting on the market. It's absurd to think that BJ Upton is a $15m player or that Jeremy-freakin-Guthrie is an $8m guy. And just LOL at Shane Victorino at $13m.

This offseason is bananas. If you even manage to get rid of Mauer, that $23m you spend to replace him is going to bring you less in return than Joe.

With that said, I'm not against trading him if a team offers the farm for ol' Joe.

Disagree with you partially Pig. Upton's been somewhere between a 3-4 win player and is under 30, his contract is pretty much market value. Victorino, again 3-4 win player(5.9 two years ago!). Little bit older so lower payout. I'll agree Mauer will be a solid contract if he keeps up his production for a few more years. The big question will be how well he holds up, if he can keep this 5 win plateau for a the next 2 years and then go into a more typical .5 win decline per year the contract will be viewed as fair. If it starts earlier than that we have a problem, even with inflation.

Originally Posted by iastfan112

Disagree with you partially Pig. Upton's been somewhere between a 3-4 win player and is under 30, his contract is pretty much market value. Victorino, again 3-4 win player(5.9 two years ago!). Little bit older so lower payout. I'll agree Mauer will be a solid contract if he keeps up his production for a few more years. The big question will be how well he holds up, if he can keep this 5 win plateau for a the next 2 years and then go into a more typical .5 win decline per year the contract will be viewed as fair. If it starts earlier than that we have a problem, even with inflation.

BB-Ref is down on Upton/Victorino compared to FG. I agree that both are decent players but Upton's inability to get on base is a huge concern for me.

While if Mauer stays healthy, he'll be back behind the plate more often in 2013 (Ryan has said as much). That means his value may actually rise in the coming two years. His decline is certainly a concern from 2015-2018, though.