Thread: Article: Twins, Jared Burton Agree on Contract Extension

Originally Posted by jorgenswest

We just purchased his 33 year old season for 3.25 million. We already owned his age 32 season. I wrote about the possibility of an extension earlier in the off season

http://twinsdaily.com/entry.php?1968...Old-Set-Up-Man

Looking at 31 year old right handed set up men from 2000-2010, there was a significant drop off in performance from age 31 to age 33.

To summarize, I searched for every season pitched by a 31 year old set up man from 2000-2010. I sought pitchers with a workload of at least 60 games. I eliminated closers as they have a different work load. I eliminated guys with ERAs over 4 as most were on their way out of baseball. I found 28 pitchers. I eliminated pitchers jailed for attempted murder in their home country and was down to 27. At age 33, 7 of the 27 pitched 60 games with an ERA under 4. Add one guy who became a starter to make 8 effective pitchers.

Eight effective pitchers at age 33 from a group of 27 effective pitchers at age 31. It seems like the Twins are on the wrong side of the odds with this contract.

Yes, but what were the innings pitched per year by the 8 versus the other 18. Were any of them similar to Burton mechanically.? Compare to similars. How many of the 19 pitched their last years for Dusty baker? The only thing that may be similar is age.

Originally Posted by birdwatcher

Just another step in that sneaky old Terry Ryan's salary dump.

I think, if TR tries hard, he can just barely squeeze Burton's new number into the new payroll, what with Morneau and Willingham likely to be gone by the end of this year.

Actually, I like the extension, it encourages other potential FAs to see the Twins as a place that will take a chance on a guy and reward him nicely based on his performance. Plus, for a guy like Burton, he now has a tradeable contract to a contender looking for value at deadline time. Win-Win. Good move on the part of Terry.

GM's are supposed to get this kind of thing done. Nothing special. Administrative. Walt Jocketty didn't have this kind of comeback, healthy performance to consider. Just because Terry Ryan does what should be done doesn't make him a sage or special in my mind. The return he accomplished (didn't accomplish) for Span when Rizzo had been after him for a couple years shows me way more about his acumen. He is "supposed" to make deals like he did for Revere. So yes, I for one am still calling for his head, but thankful he didn't mess the last trade up.

Originally Posted by h2oface

GM's are supposed to get this kind of thing done. Nothing special. Administrative. Walt Jocketty didn't have this kind of comeback, healthy performance to consider. Just because Terry Ryan does what should be done doesn't make him a sage or special in my mind. The return he accomplished (didn't accomplish) for Span when Rizzo had been after him for a couple years shows me way more about his acumen. He is "supposed" to make deals like he did for Revere. So yes, I for one am still calling for his head, but thankful he didn't mess the last trade up.

What on earth do you think Ryan should have received in return for Span?

And by completely hosing the Phillies front office, Ryan merely did what he was supposed to do? Worley for Revere straight up is a fair trade. I'm amazed that Ryan managed to get them to throw May into the deal. Revere is around a 2.5 WAR player in two seasons. Worley is around a 2.5 WAR player in 1 1/3rd seasons. Both have similar service time. A player-for-player swap would have been fair given the circumstances.

Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp

Originally Posted by h2oface

GM's are supposed to get this kind of thing done. Nothing special. Administrative. Walt Jocketty didn't have this kind of comeback, healthy performance to consider. Just because Terry Ryan does what should be done doesn't make him a sage or special in my mind. The return he accomplished (didn't accomplish) for Span when Rizzo had been after him for a couple years shows me way more about his acumen. He is "supposed" to make deals like he did for Revere. So yes, I for one am still calling for his head, but thankful he didn't mess the last trade up.

What on earth do you think Ryan should have received in return for Span?

And by completely hosing the Phillies front office, Ryan merely did what he was supposed to do? Worley for Revere straight up is a fair trade. I'm amazed that Ryan managed to get them to throw May into the deal. Revere is around a 2.5 WAR player in two seasons. Worley is around a 2.5 WAR player in 1 1/3rd seasons. Both have similar service time. A player-for-player swap would have been fair given the circumstances.

I hate to repeat myself from posts a few days back, but you have asked, and I am not trying to change your opinion (like that is ever going to happen anyway, eh?), just express mine, as a comment, not an article.
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index...an-from-twins/
If you have what somebody wants, you make the rules of the deal.

This from a few days ago..... "i just don't get the mentality of trading a major league good centerfielder with a great value contract for someone who may never make it to the bigs at all. span should have been traded for a proven pitcher, and one that can help now, not "maybe" in a few years. what a waste of trading chip. and still no pitching for the twins 2013 season. ……..apparently some teams were lining up for a proven centerfielder, eh? so the twins are the ones that give it away? what's the difference? the teams that always are building for the future, are always building for the future. rarely does that envisioned future arrive. personally, i never like a deal that is a proven for a best guess. best guesses litter the minor league rosters. and that is what this is. span is not a guess. i just don't like it. not at all. and oakland already got the nat's best young arms last year."

So to briefly extend here....... I think a first round pick, groomed and now a proven MLB player with a great contract and entering the prime of his years, is worth more than a first round pick that is not proven, but a hope. I feel Ryan left a card not played, and should have gotten another player in this deal. I think he acted too fast, (who else was trying to acquire Meyer? ... compared to who else was interested in Span?) and he should have and could have gotten more, as he did with Revere. Perhaps it was Ryan who wanted the hope more than Rizzo wanted the proven. I don't think so from how long Rizzo has been trying to acquire Span, but I don't know. You don't know. I think the Phillies wanted Revere, and made it very attractive as Atlanta was reported to be in the hunt again, too...........

Originally Posted by h2oface

GM's are supposed to get this kind of thing done. Nothing special. Administrative. Walt Jocketty didn't have this kind of comeback, healthy performance to consider. Just because Terry Ryan does what should be done doesn't make him a sage or special in my mind. The return he accomplished (didn't accomplish) for Span when Rizzo had been after him for a couple years shows me way more about his acumen. He is "supposed" to make deals like he did for Revere. So yes, I for one am still calling for his head, but thankful he didn't mess the last trade up.

Your retort shows your acumen. It is not out of the realm of possibility that the word concussion will devalue a player. As shown by many players in other sports, the second, third concussions take longer to heal from. One knee sliding into second base, one errant wall in the outfield and Span is done for a while. Span passes a physical, the potential is there. That potential decreases Span's value. Revere has more years of team control. That may have made him a little more valuable than Span to the Phillies. Whatever was discussed with the Phillies was discussed long before Span was traded to Washington. With one less major league ready CF on the market, a team looking for one now has a higher price.

The velocity for Burton is unchanged from before his injury. Jockety could have had Burton in his pen.He chose not to bring him back. Nobody on this board with a straight face will ever concede that the coaching here made Burton a better pitcher .In terms of the numbers on the paycheck Burton is giving up free agency time at a discount even if he can't quite maintain the same numbers. Others say because of age he might be worth less. At 35 Dotel was still earning 6 million to be a setup guy. Ryan made an assessment that Burton's numbers wouldn't slide too much. Time will tell if it was a smart move.

Originally Posted by h2oface

This from a few days ago..... "i just don't get the mentality of trading a major league good centerfielder with a great value contract for someone who may never make it to the bigs at all. span should have been traded for a proven pitcher, and one that can help now, not "maybe" in a few years. what a waste of trading chip. and still no pitching for the twins 2013 season. ……..apparently some teams were lining up for a proven centerfielder, eh? so the twins are the ones that give it away? what's the difference? the teams that always are building for the future, are always building for the future. rarely does that envisioned future arrive. personally, i never like a deal that is a proven for a best guess. best guesses litter the minor league rosters. and that is what this is. span is not a guess. i just don't like it. not at all. and oakland already got the nat's best young arms last year."

So to briefly extend here....... I think a first round pick, groomed and now a proven MLB player with a great contract and entering the prime of his years, is worth more than a first round pick that is not proven, but a hope. I feel Ryan left a card not played, and should have gotten another player in this deal. I think he acted too fast, (who else was trying to acquire Meyer? ... compared to who else was interested in Span?) and he should have and could have gotten more, as he did with Revere. Perhaps it was Ryan who wanted the hope more than Rizzo wanted the proven. I don't think so from how long Rizzo has been trying to acquire Span, but I don't know. You don't know. I think the Phillies wanted Revere, and made it very attractive as Atlanta was reported to be in the hunt again, too...........

No team is going to give up a Major League ready starter with significant upside for Span. They're just not going to do it. Young, cost-controlled starters with upside are the most valuable commodity in baseball. So Ryan went and got a slightly raw guy (but not too raw, he could end up in AAA this season) for Denard. Almost every baseball analyst not named Dave Cameron thinks this was a neutral trade or a slight win by the Twins and Ryan. You can go ahead and put your stock in Dave Cameron (who has been laughably wrong on some of his analysis over the years) and I'll put my stock in everybody else.

Ryan wasn't going to get a good young starter with upside for Span. Denard, while a quite good player, has all sorts of health issues surrounding him and while he's pretty cheap, he's not pre-arbitration cheap over the next three seasons. Ryan had over six months to work out a trade for Span and he sat on it until the right moment when Rizzo looked to be panicking after the Braves snatched Upton off the market. Ryan couldn't have done much better for Span than he did and he absolutely gouged the Phillies front office in the Revere deal.

So we have one good trade and one very good/outstanding trade. Yet Ryan is somehow failing to do his job. Ridiculous expectations much?

And next time you quote the Holy Grail that is Dave Cameron, read this article about the Figgins signing first. ROFLCOPTER. That's all I have to say about that.

http://www.ussmariner.com/2009/12/04...-sign-figgins/

Great article about Figgins, really turned out to be a versatile asset to the Mariners.

Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp

No team is going to give up a Major League ready starter with significant upside for Span. They're just not going to do it. Young, cost-controlled starters with upside are the most valuable commodity in baseball. So Ryan went and got a slightly raw guy (but not too raw, he could end up in AAA this season) for Denard. Almost every baseball analyst not named Dave Cameron thinks this was a neutral trade or a slight win by the Twins and Ryan. You can go ahead and put your stock in Dave Cameron (who has been laughably wrong on some of his analysis over the years) and I'll put my stock in everybody else.

Ryan wasn't going to get a good young starter with upside for Span. Denard, while a quite good player, has all sorts of health issues surrounding him and while he's pretty cheap, he's not pre-arbitration cheap over the next three seasons. Ryan had over six months to work out a trade for Span and he sat on it until the right moment when Rizzo looked to be panicking after the Braves snatched Upton off the market. Ryan couldn't have done much better for Span than he did and he absolutely gouged the Phillies front office in the Revere deal.

So we have one good trade and one very good/outstanding trade. Yet Ryan is somehow failing to do his job. Ridiculous expectations much?

And next time you quote the Holy Grail that is Dave Cameron, read this article about the Figgins signing first. ROFLCOPTER. That's all I have to say about that.

http://www.ussmariner.com/2009/12/04...-sign-figgins/

Nobody but the Phillies, I guess.
I have my own opinion of this ........ and just used the particular article as an example of an article, and not a comment. I wish I had not included it, because it is clouding what I am saying, and is insignificant in that regard. I am not putting stock in anything except my own opinion here and could care less what Cameron thinks (but I did read it, like many others I read, and didn't really mean to have anyone perceive I was putting "stock" in it); I think Ryan could have done better on the Span deal, and I do have high expectations, call them ridiculous if you like, for the GM of my favorite team - always. I do expect The GM to make good deals like the Revere - Worley/Mays deal, and do it consistently. I have no idea what ROFLCOPTER means, but if it is text speak...... beware of the site police. The only "Holy Grail" I identify with is Monty Python and the Holy Grail.
I am happy for you that you are satisfied with the Span trade. I really wish I could be. I hope "The Hope" pans out, as we all do. Even if it does, I think the deal demanded more return.

Originally Posted by h2oface

Nobody but the Phillies, I guess.
I have my own opinion of this ........ and just used the particular article as an example of an article, and not a comment. I wish I had not included it, because it is clouding what I am saying, and is insignificant in that regard. I am not putting stock in anything except my own opinion here and could care less what Cameron thinks (but I did read it, like many others I read, and didn't really mean to have anyone perceive I was putting "stock" in it); I think Ryan could have done better on the Span deal, and I do have high expectations, call them ridiculous if you like, for the GM of my favorite team - always. I do expect The GM to make good deals like the Revere - Worley/Mays deal, and do it consistently. I have no idea what ROFLCOPTER means, but if it is text speak...... beware of the site police. The only "Holy Grail" I identify with is Monty Python and the Holy Grail.
I am happy for you that you are satisfied with the Span trade. I really wish I could be. I hope "The Hope" pans out, as we all do. Even if it does, I think the deal demanded more return.

So unless the GM of the Twins robs the opposition blind on every trade and then steals his lunch money, he's doing a bad job?

I'd hate to watch sports with that attitude. How do you not hate every single inning of the game with expectations that completely unreasonable? And why watch at all? Masochism?

And the Phillies didn't give up a young starter with upside. They gave up a slightly battered young starter that projects as a #3, tops. Is that what you wanted? A mediocre pitcher with little or no upside?

Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp

Originally Posted by h2oface

Nobody but the Phillies, I guess.
I have my own opinion of this ........ and just used the particular article as an example of an article, and not a comment. I wish I had not included it, because it is clouding what I am saying, and is insignificant in that regard. I am not putting stock in anything except my own opinion here and could care less what Cameron thinks (but I did read it, like many others I read, and didn't really mean to have anyone perceive I was putting "stock" in it); I think Ryan could have done better on the Span deal, and I do have high expectations, call them ridiculous if you like, for the GM of my favorite team - always. I do expect The GM to make good deals like the Revere - Worley/Mays deal, and do it consistently. I have no idea what ROFLCOPTER means, but if it is text speak...... beware of the site police. The only "Holy Grail" I identify with is Monty Python and the Holy Grail.
I am happy for you that you are satisfied with the Span trade. I really wish I could be. I hope "The Hope" pans out, as we all do. Even if it does, I think the deal demanded more return.

So unless the GM of the Twins robs the opposition blind on every trade and then steals his lunch money, he's doing a bad job?

I'd hate to watch sports with that attitude. How do you not hate every single inning of the game with expectations that completely unreasonable? And why watch at all? Masochism?

And the Phillies didn't give up a young starter with upside. They gave up a slightly battered young starter that projects as a #3, tops. Is that what you wanted? A mediocre pitcher with little or no upside?

I have tried to discuss with you my opinion, and reasons for it, and have no problem with your disagreement. I even said I am happy for you. I also think Worley has great future, and was quite impressed with his rookie partial year in 2011. From the get go, I told you I am not out to change your mind. I don't feel that the Phillies were robbed, but you can if you like. That will not lead me to get into labeling you and disparaging you personally for your opinion. G'day.

Originally Posted by h2oface

Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp

Originally Posted by h2oface

Nobody but the Phillies, I guess.
I have my own opinion of this ........ and just used the particular article as an example of an article, and not a comment. I wish I had not included it, because it is clouding what I am saying, and is insignificant in that regard. I am not putting stock in anything except my own opinion here and could care less what Cameron thinks (but I did read it, like many others I read, and didn't really mean to have anyone perceive I was putting "stock" in it); I think Ryan could have done better on the Span deal, and I do have high expectations, call them ridiculous if you like, for the GM of my favorite team - always. I do expect The GM to make good deals like the Revere - Worley/Mays deal, and do it consistently. I have no idea what ROFLCOPTER means, but if it is text speak...... beware of the site police. The only "Holy Grail" I identify with is Monty Python and the Holy Grail.
I am happy for you that you are satisfied with the Span trade. I really wish I could be. I hope "The Hope" pans out, as we all do. Even if it does, I think the deal demanded more return.

So unless the GM of the Twins robs the opposition blind on every trade and then steals his lunch money, he's doing a bad job?

I'd hate to watch sports with that attitude. How do you not hate every single inning of the game with expectations that completely unreasonable? And why watch at all? Masochism?

And the Phillies didn't give up a young starter with upside. They gave up a slightly battered young starter that projects as a #3, tops. Is that what you wanted? A mediocre pitcher with little or no upside?

I have tried to discuss with you my opinion, and reasons for it, and have no problem with your disagreement. I even said I am happy for you. I also think Worley has great future, and was quite impressed with his rookie partial year in 2011. From the get go, I told you I am not out to change your mind. I don't feel that the Phillies were robbed, but you can if you like. That will not lead me to get into labeling you and disparaging you personally for your opinion. G'day.

Stated with grace and respectful aplomb. Well done.

In the context of this site, one must occasionally refer to the TD credo at the upper left corner of this page:

Independent. In-depth. Irreverent. Individuals.

Sabrematricians are very, very sure of themselves and it makes for good business in raising your hits to your webblog.
To paraphrase Bierce, what's the point of writing if you can't make someone mad?

The problem I have is with the guys like Keith Law who think they have broken the code to the secret of baseball success and then only come up with results like this:


$1 Bet Yield for MLB Pundits (2009-2011 Preseason Predictions)

Pundit	2009	2010	2011	Cumulative	2012 WS Pick
Jim Caple (ESPN)	$.056	$4.43	$0.15	$1.71	LA Angels
Jayson Stark (ESPN)	$2.01	$0.45	$0.76	$1.07	Detroit
Peter Pascarelli (ESPN)	$1.89	$0.55	$0.61	$1.02	Detroit
Pedro Gomez (ESPN)	$1.35	$1.34	$0.15	$0.95	LA Angels
Buster Olney (ESPN)	$2.01	$0.45	$0.27	$.091	Tampa Bay
Joe Lemire (SI)	$1.62	$0.45	$0.42	$0.83	Texas
Ted Keith (SI)	$1.22	$0.82	$0.42	$0.82	Yankees
Favorites	$1.65	$0.17	$0.40	$0.74	Philadelphia
Ben Reiter (SI)	$0.82	$0.78	$0.51	$0.70	Texas
Albert Chen (SI)	$0.00	$1.39	$0.58	$0.66	Texas
Eric Karabell (ESPN)	$1.51	$0.17	$0.15	$0.61	Philadelphia
Tom Verducci (ESPN)	$1.04	$0.45	$0.15	$0.55	LA Angels
Keith Law (ESPN)	$0.27	$0.78	$0.42	$0.49	Texas
Orel Hershiser (ESPN)	$0.82	$0.17	$0.42	$0.47	Tampa Bay
Jerry Crasnick (ESPN)	$0.82	$0.17	$0.15	$0.38	Texas
Pundit Average				$0.82

Originally Posted by jokin

The problem I have is with the guys like Keith Law who think they have broken the code to the secret of baseball success and then only come up with results like this:


$1 Bet Yield for MLB Pundits (2009-2011 Preseason Predictions)

Pundit	2009	2010	2011	Cumulative	2012 WS Pick
Jim Caple (ESPN)	$.056	$4.43	$0.15	$1.71	LA Angels
Jayson Stark (ESPN)	$2.01	$0.45	$0.76	$1.07	Detroit
Peter Pascarelli (ESPN)	$1.89	$0.55	$0.61	$1.02	Detroit
Pedro Gomez (ESPN)	$1.35	$1.34	$0.15	$0.95	LA Angels
Buster Olney (ESPN)	$2.01	$0.45	$0.27	$.091	Tampa Bay
Joe Lemire (SI)	$1.62	$0.45	$0.42	$0.83	Texas
Ted Keith (SI)	$1.22	$0.82	$0.42	$0.82	Yankees
Favorites	$1.65	$0.17	$0.40	$0.74	Philadelphia
Ben Reiter (SI)	$0.82	$0.78	$0.51	$0.70	Texas
Albert Chen (SI)	$0.00	$1.39	$0.58	$0.66	Texas
Eric Karabell (ESPN)	$1.51	$0.17	$0.15	$0.61	Philadelphia
Tom Verducci (ESPN)	$1.04	$0.45	$0.15	$0.55	LA Angels
Keith Law (ESPN)	$0.27	$0.78	$0.42	$0.49	Texas
Orel Hershiser (ESPN)	$0.82	$0.17	$0.42	$0.47	Tampa Bay
Jerry Crasnick (ESPN)	$0.82	$0.17	$0.15	$0.38	Texas
Pundit Average				$0.82

What does this have to do with anything at the topic at hand?

If ANYONE could predict who was going to win the World Series year in and year out, they certainly wouldn't be working for an MLB team or ESPN, they would be sitting pretty winning millions every year gambling.

Just because "pundits" have a tough time predicting who will win it all (when the baseball playoffs by and large are a HUGE crap shoot as most people acknowledge) doesn't mean their analysis of players and prospects is "bunk".

These guys get paid the big bucks because they have:
1. A great track record
2. A great understanding of the game.

So pardon me if I(and 99% of people) take Keith Law's thoughts a little more seriously then someone who simply states "Terry Ryan sucks" on a message board.

Originally Posted by jokin

Originally Posted by h2oface

I have tried to discuss with you my opinion, and reasons for it, and have no problem with your disagreement. I even said I am happy for you. I also think Worley has great future, and was quite impressed with his rookie partial year in 2011. From the get go, I told you I am not out to change your mind. I don't feel that the Phillies were robbed, but you can if you like. That will not lead me to get into labeling you and disparaging you personally for your opinion. G'day.

Stated with grace and respectful aplomb. Well done.

In the context of this site, one must occasionally refer to the TD credo at the upper left corner of this page:

Independent. In-depth. Irreverent. Individuals.

Sabrematricians are very, very sure of themselves and it makes for good business in raising your hits to your webblog.
To paraphrase Bierce, what's the point of writing if you can't make someone mad?

The problem I have is with the guys like Keith Law who think they have broken the code to the secret of baseball success and then only come up with results like this:

The only person in this thread who has quoted anything from a sabermatrician is the guy you just quoted and congratulated.

*scratches head*

The word of the day is, strawman.