12-08-2012, 09:30 PM #1
4 Realistic FA Pitching Options
From what I gather, our 4 FA options in pitching are Saunders, Myers, Correia, and Lannan. LEN3 said on Twitter we aren't in on Jackson or Marcum. If we aren't in on Jackson or Marcum, we aren't in on Sanchez. I forgot who also reported it, but we didn't make an offer to McCarthy.
So with ditching ony further speculation on one of the better arms, let's look at the 4 available (from my limited perspectice):
-Pitched most of his career in AL.
-Had best year in AL.
-Was able to switch from NL to AL last year and do well with Baltimore.
-Appears to at least be consistent enough to make 28-30 starts.
-Could bring prospects at trade deadline (B- prospect the highest)
-ERA will most likely be over 4 in full AL season.
-Price will be over inflated with Blanton signing.
-4th or 5th starter ... not a 2nd starter like Twins need.
FA Predition: 2 years at 17.5 million .. probably out of Twins price range.
-Able to start or relieve.
-Was able to change back from closer to starter before in career.
-Probably a better version of Brian Duensing (going back and forth between rotation and pen).
-Willing to probably settle for less for a chance to start for a full season.
-Could bring prospects at trade deadline (C prospect at best)
-No guarantees he can convert back into a starter.
-ERA will probably approach 5 as a starter in my opinion.
-Will be lucky to get to 5th inning in attempt to go back to a starter ... doesn't protect bullpen.
-Pitched 98% of his career in NL. AL a very different animal.
FA Prediction: 1 year (make good deal as starter) at 6.5 million with 1 million in incentives - will sign with Twins for starting opportunity.
-Durable for last 4 years.
-Um ... 500 pitcher?
-Jason Marquis all over again.
-Never pitched in AL.
-If he can have a 4 to 5 ERA in NL, imagine what it will be in AL.
-Never pitched over 200 innings.
-Won't bring any prospects at deadline since he'll probably be released before then.
FA Prediction: 2 year at 12 million ... hopefully an NL team inflates his price and keeps the Twins from making a mistake.
-Youngest (28) of all the 4 options.
-Looking to re-establish himself after being in minors for a majority of last year.
-Price might be better for a team like the Twins.
-Possibly still young enough in career to improve.
-Could be a decent back end guy in Twins rotation for possibly up to 3-4 years.
-Probably won't bring any good prospects back at deadline, but will bring something (C- to D???)
-Never pitched in AL.
-Wins and losses don't count much, but he was never able have a full winning full season in Washington.
-Only went over 200 innings once.
-Not even good enough to be one of Washington's main starting 5 all season.
-Confidence might be shaken with being in minors last year after establishing himself.
FA Prediction: 1 year at 4.5 million ... Twins should sign him.
What I'd want:
I think Saunders has the highest upside. I'd love to see the Twins give him a 2 year deal as he'd for sure be our 3rd starter, which isn't terrible. My second choice would be Myers or Lannan .. with me probably going Lannan over Myers due to me knowing he can start. The Twins won't spend all of their FA money on SP ... they'll pocket some of it.
Knowing us, we'll think what Saunders wants is too much and go Lannan/Myers and Correia (yuck). It could be even worse ... maybe we'll go Correia and an even worse SP out there (looks like talks with Liriano got worse, so we look to be avoiding that bullet).
If it was Lannan and Myers, I guess that be ok ... Saunders will probably want to go to a contender. The Twins right now are viewed as a place for opportunity. A place to establish yourself and hope you do good enough to get a bigger payday, which is what both Lannan and Myers need.
We'll see what happens. What do others think (feel free to tear me to shreds if you don't agree, lol).
12-08-2012, 10:03 PM #2
Grab those lefthanders! While there aren't many righthanders who can succeed when throwing <90, there are plenty of lefties that do. Look no further than Diamond with the Twins. There are also plenty of left-handed hitters that are close to helpless against lefthanded pitching.
12-08-2012, 10:09 PM #3
Except that righthanders tee off on those lefthanders in Target Field, especially soft tossers like Saunders and Lannan.
Pass, pass, pass, and pass. We have enough of these guys already that we can pay league min. for. Put the money into something else of roll it over into next year's free agent class. Most of the realistic, 2nd tier guys with a little upside are off the table already. That's what a soft trigger finger gets you.
12-08-2012, 10:28 PM #4
Good breakdown but there are many more options than those. At the bare minimum, we already know Liriano has an offer on the table. Though unlikely, I don't think ruling out Marcum and Jackson actually rules out Sanchez. If the Twins are looking toward the future, it may mean the are ruling out guys in the 2-3 year range. If they are looking for a pitcher who they can count on when the team is ready to re-contend, they may see Sanchez as the only legit arm aside from the too expensive Greinke. For the record,I'm not Sanchez's biggest fan, but I wouldn't be shocked if he's what Ryan thinks he is saving his payroll for.
Last edited by nicksaviking; 12-08-2012 at 10:42 PM.
12-08-2012, 10:38 PM #5
12-08-2012, 10:41 PM #6
Marcum is still out there. Maybe not as high as $10 million. The Twins could sweep in and offer Dempster 3 years. But otherwise, look at Myers or Saunders for one. And any of the non-tenders or maybe two of them. Remember, at this point many of the teams no longer have 49-man roster space, so some guys are going to be minor league invite to spring training contracts. The Twins are lucky...they are sitting at two open roster spots, still...and can sill deep-six Butera if need be ad probably keep him in he organization.
12-08-2012, 11:47 PM #7
You forgot the best one out there, Liriano....sarc off..
12-09-2012, 12:11 AM #8
Ryan is ONLY in on pitchers that are willing to take a 1yr deal......nothing more.
Ryan will go into 2014 w/ a combo of Worley, Diamond, Hendriks, Gibson, Meyer and/or May.
MN wants nothing to do with anyone else making ANY money
12-09-2012, 12:38 AM #9
As for this year, Lirano makes more sense than any of the guys you listed. At least there is some (small) potential of him having an ace year. With these other guys, you'd be hoping for a mediocre year at best.
12-09-2012, 07:31 AM #10
You could've overpayed with the hopes of flipping a guy during the season. Two year contracts are not absurd. I would go 3 years on anyone under 30, for sure, or at least a nice option year with an agreed upon buyout. Don't see the Twins getting Sanchez, Dempster, Jackson or especially Lohse. Marcum and Saunders are still in play, I hope. Myers, too. Then you got the old guys like Pavano, Villanueva, Chris Young, Oswalt, Bedard, Millwood and Lowe. Liriano needs to pitch somewhere, what he gets paid will be...interesting. Do you really want Correia, Matsuzaka, Garcia, Hernandez, Wang, Cook, Jonathan Sanchez, Kip Wells, Wolf or...Jamie Moyer? Then there is the very interesting guys: Pelfrey, Lannan, Jurrijens, Gorezany, Karstens and...Slowey. 32 pitchers for 32 teams.
12-09-2012, 08:17 AM #11
Nice write up. I still hope for Marcum but I think they'll add at least one of those 4 pitchers.
12-09-2012, 08:25 AM #12
All four of those pitchers are either clearly below replacement or at best replacement level. That means there is no use spending anything on them when Sam Deduno or Cole DeVries could produce the same results. A team CAN have too much pitching when most of it is bad.
There is no reason not to try to "overpay" on a one-year offer to Marcum (say $10 million plus incentives) if TR is really stuck on one-year deals (which he shouldn't be).
12-09-2012, 08:31 AM #13
It's over Twins will suck another two years now.
12-09-2012, 08:53 AM #14
If this is what they do, I'll be disappointed. It is realistic to sign one of the top or 2nd tier guys. If they don't, it is clearly all about money. Still hoping to be wrong....Win Twins.
12-09-2012, 09:40 AM #15
Quite the nauseating list.
12-09-2012, 11:38 AM #16
I think the Twins will get just enough to be an 78-84 win team on paper where a few breaks makes them a contender. once all the top talent in the minors gets established then we'll be a serious playoff contender.
12-09-2012, 12:36 PM #17
Saunders and Lannan are the only ones with a chance to be better than the Deduno line, and both can be had for 2-year contracts which fits the 2015 timetable for the youngsters. I'd go after them both.
12-09-2012, 02:01 PM #18
12-09-2012, 02:12 PM #19
I predict Myers and Liriano and another high draft pick in 2014.
12-09-2012, 03:43 PM #20
Did those in favor of any of these pitchers even bother to look up their statistics?