01-03-2013, 08:54 AM #1
Hope For A Rotation
Who is everyone hoping for to fill out the rotation to start the season? Assume everyone is healthy and not knowing ST results.
01-03-2013, 09:11 AM #2
At this point I guess my "ideal" rotation would be Marcum, Worley, Diamond, Pelfrey, Correia with Gibson & Hendriks starting in Triple-A and ready to step in when guys get hurt or falter.
01-03-2013, 09:43 AM #3
I don't think Pelfrey will be 100% by the beginning of the season (fatigue?) and won't be better than Hendriks out of the gate. Gibson will be held back. He'll be impressive in AAA and get a rotation slot in mid-June.
01-03-2013, 10:51 AM #4
Marcum would be the number 1 in my ideal rotation. Until he's signed, I'm not going to pencil him in there just yet. With who we have, I would go:
Gibson will obviously show up at some point in June. I like the idea of Hendriks in the rotation. Throw him in the fire and see how he does. I think he has the "stuff" to be a competent in the MLB.Posts on other sites:
01-03-2013, 10:58 AM #5
Woof!! These potential rotations are hideous. Whats the point of having Correia take development time away from Liam Hendriks?
01-03-2013, 11:04 AM #6
01-03-2013, 11:31 AM #7
In the wings: Hendriks, Gibson, DeVries
Looking forward to 2014: Alex Meyer, Trevor May
In the wings: B.J. Hermsen, Wimmers
That's the Twins depth and plan for 2013 and 2014.
They work in Gibson and bring up hendriks as the season progresses.
Anyone else, all the minor league guys, they would need a 40-man spot for them, and with Blackburn potentially eating up innings, THAT is where development is being blocked. I would see only one of Vasquez, Walters, Deduno making it to the 40-man for an extended amount of time. If two make it, it is because DeVries and someone else is sent packing.
Of course, the Twins also have to address Swarzak (out of options) and Pressly (Rule 5) who along with Duening could be spot starters, if the need arose.
Maybe Ryan does know what he is doing (although I would rather have a second year option on Pelfrey rather than Corriea). If Corriea, Pelfrey and Harden pitch well, they can be swapped out for a mid-level prospect.
Gibson et al...no use eating up service time if the team is going to suck.
Maybe next year they take a flyer on a starter in the $12-15 multi-year contract range.
01-03-2013, 11:36 AM #8
Worley, Diamond, Correia, Pelfrey and Harden will be the opening day 1-5, with Gibson in the bullpen and Hendriks starting at AAA. Gibson will be put in the rotation after the break and Hendriks will get promoted after an injury.
There is some hope in that rotation, if you pray really hard. We can hope that Diamond has another year like last year, Worley should be solid, if not spectacular, so long as he's healthy. Hopefully, Correia can eat some innings. Harden is a nice low risk move. Pelfrey should do well in TF if his surgery went well. If Ryan can upgrade the IF defense ....
I posted this somewhere else but last year the team gave 88 starts to a bunch of really bad pitchers that amassed a negative 9.5 WAR! (Ignoring the 16 ****ty starts by Hendriks for now). If Diamond repeats last year, then Correia, Worley and Pelfrey can hopefully cover most of those 88 starts between them, then all that's left is the 31 starts made by Deduno/DeVries to be covered by Harden/Gibson//Deduno. And Hendriks is, hopefully, a lot better in his 16 starts this year. Obviously, it won't work quite like that but last year's pitching staff was so bad it's hard not to be substantially better even with Correia in this rotation.
01-03-2013, 11:48 AM #9
01-03-2013, 12:05 PM #10
1. Worley: I'm hoping that he returns to 2011 form... If he does... We gotta a leader for this staff and an arm for the future.
2. Pelfrey: I think the guy has stuff... I'm hoping for average but I still think he can be above average.
3. Diamond: He's gotta do it again for me... He was fantastic at times last year but he never looked like a stuff guy. He makes me nervous and I will be happy with average results from him.
4. Deduno: I know this guy has stuff... Just no control... If he can get his mechanics down... I think this guy could be in the low 3's ERA wise... A long shot I know because if he doesn't have his mechanics down by now... How realistic is it to think he will. Low 3's is a wild expectation but the guy has some serious stuff. Might as well shoot high with the expectation.
5. Correia: Just give me average results and he's worth the signing... With my eyeballs... I really look at Correia and Diamond as very similiar pitchers.
6. Harden: I'm not convinced that he shouldn't be in the pen... I have no idea how his shoulder health will manifest in 2013... He had the stuff to close... Maybe less innings in key situations is the way to go if he is pitching like he has in the past. If he needs to start because the team needs him to... OK... If he pitches like he did in past... He would move up my depth chart to 1 or 2...
7. Gibson: Has to start in AAA and I hope he shows something in Rochester... If he does... Bring him up and replace anyone not being effective.
8. Hendriks: He will get his shot in the rotation sometime this year and I hope he grabs it with both hands and cements himself a job for the future.
9. DeVries: If we need him in 2013... We will be in trouble... Not because DeVries will cause the trouble... It will mean we had quite a few injuries and failures all happening at the same time.
10. Meyer: Not likely but there is no reason to think that he won't shoot up the ladder quickly. It's not like he's 19 years old... he came out of college... I don't expect him in 2013... But if he is lights out... There isn't much to prevent him from rising.
11. Blackburn: We will see him in the majors... If he fixes what was broken... If he doesn't fix it... He's gone. You've seen the last of Blackie.
12. May: Struggled in AA last year... but he could also move up the chain quickly with lights out pitching.
01-03-2013, 12:08 PM #11
Are we even sure that Pelfrey is going to be ready to go at the beginning of the year? His surgery was May 1. I just don't think it would be wise to start him in February to be ready by opening day. Even if he is recovered in 10 months, that is March 1 and he would be a bit behind schedule.
On Gibson: since he is going to be limited to 140-150 innings, why on earth start the season with him anywhere but AAA? He should still be starting, but they can really limit his innings until June. Give him 4 starts at 3 innings, 4 at 4 innings, and 2 at 5 innings in AAA to get him ready for 100-110 innings with the Twins from June onward. Let lefty Andrew Albers (who I am cheering for this year to sneak into the Twins bullpen at some point) be his personal reliever in Rochester.
Diamond, Worley, Correia, Hendriks, Harden/Deduno/DeVries/Hernandez/BLACKBURN/Vasquez/Walters will likely be the starting rotation barring any additions or injuries. I guess I am not sure why teams keep trotting Harden out as a starter when he could be a setup man. Of course I am not sure why the Twins would bother with him in the bullpen unless there is an injury to Burton or Perkins. Also, of course, using Harden in a setup role might be productive for him and might draw interest from teams at the deadline.
I like Hendriks and think he improved at the end of the season last year. Unfortunately I predict a disaster for Correia this year, so Hendriks and eventually Gibson and Pelfrey are going to need to step up.
01-03-2013, 01:00 PM #12
Lets go with
If Pelfry isn't ready to start the season then I can see Dedunno or Devries getting a chance Harden will be in the pen if he can still pitch. Gibson will be up later in the season. Looks like it would be wise to sign one more pitcher this offseson. Either Marcum or Saunders is fine. I am not as high on Marcum as others are on this board. I think of him the same as I do DeVries. and I think of DeVries as I do Corriea only cheeper and no guarentee of being paid 5 million in 2014. i see them as 5-6 inning pitchers near 4.5 era. I am not sure where Walters is at on the list of potential starters if he is ahead of DeVries and Dedunno or not
01-03-2013, 01:02 PM #13
Since the premise is health for everyone, Harden is top of the list presumably. That's a pretty big assumption but, if the parameters are to assume health, there you go. I'm betting Harden throws limited innings by being in the pen, honestly, but if he's truly healthy he can front a rotation. Then assuming health for everyone else I'd love to then see this:
5. Gibson (I've said it before, I don't understand why you don't just make Gibson the #5 and skip him every time there's an off-day in the schedule.)
Since I also assume they aren't signing Marcum, Harden won't be healthy enough to start, and Gibson will be in AAA, my expected rotation is:
4. Pelfrey (possibly replaced by Deduno/DeVries depending on health)
My gut feeling is Hendricks is the one they truly believe can be a starter, so he gets the nod over all the other fringey guys they have available, even if his results haven't backed it up yet.
01-03-2013, 02:17 PM #14
#1 diamond his spot until someone takes it from him
#2 worley not high on him but he will help
#3 pelfrey good sign,could be the #1 if healthy
#4 walters if he shows healthy in ST,he will surprise with the + changeup
#5 correia he is here because he is under contract, bad sign.
#6 blackburn he will get another chance & it may be out of ST.
#7 harden if not in pen , when if healthy he can help
#8 devries he will get some spot starts
#9 gibson some big league time but really wont be a factor till 2014
#10, 11 deduno has the stuff but mgrs arent going to keep sending him out there hoping he can throw strikes, unless they have no other choice. hendricks dont see it happening
i know mine dont match most others , but i like walters & i have explained why in other post but really most likely blackburn fills out the rotation to start the season...
01-03-2013, 02:58 PM #15
Hendriks should he in the rotation all year. He has nothing to prove in AAA, and they need to run him out there and let him grow. My hope is that they ate realistic, given what they have done, and play for the future.
if Gibson pitches any innings, they should be in the majors. It does not hurt your arm leas to throw in the minors or practice games.
01-03-2013, 03:23 PM #16
mike, alot of these guys that will compete for a spot have nothing left to prove in the minors, minor league success does not always translate to the bigs, especially if you dont strike guys out. i personally dont think hendricks can repeat his performance in AAA.
01-03-2013, 03:51 PM #17
01-03-2013, 04:32 PM #18
True, but unlike some guys, Hendriks has not proved he is bad in the majors. I would want him out there, so we know one way or the other with more certainty. Just like Slama, let us not trot out guys we know are bad, let us see what he has for a few months.
01-03-2013, 04:45 PM #19
hes has pretty much convinced me, he has more big league starts that walters, deduno or devries..& he has been terrible. the only thing he has going for him is hes still only 23. i believe either walters or devries can put up a better season in the bigs than hendricks , deduno is 50 50 depending how many he walks.
01-04-2013, 11:43 AM #20