Thread: Is 2 for 4 a bad thing?

Originally Posted by jokin

The topic was not what the Twins should or would be able to do--- but what was the exact "crapshoot" nature of Rule 5 pitchers in general and the supposition from the poster that the Rule 5 draft is a complete waste of time as there supposedly are never useful pitching prospects that come from it. I think I showed that it is at least theoretically possible to assemble a decent staff from scraps and certainly worth some time to explore the available options thoroughly, especially with an advantageously high set of picks (your case regarding Nova proves my point, there was something there, the Padres did in fact draft him, for whatever reason, they didn't have room for roster retention, so that the Yankees would later receive the full benefits from him). Lobstein and Lara seem like no-brainers at such a low cost of kicking the tires, as did Kehrer in the AAA draft. Lobstein had a very strong year at AA and is only 23 (unlike soft-tossing Pressly who bombed out as a starter at that level and is now projected as a reliever).

Regarding Josh Fields, the Twins drafted about a half a dozen college "live arms"/closers/set-up men in June in hopes of possibly converting them to hard throwing starters. Fields filled that role at Georgia so he possibly fits experimenting with as a starter for a team in as weak a situation as the Twins are in.

Are you reading my mind now? How did we go from crapshoot to "complete waste of time"?

Are you honestly going to tell me that picking the scraps of other teams minor league systems will get you to produce a viable pitching staff? You're kidding right? All the guys in the low minors have warts, hence being left unprotected. As for live arms, go ask Sam Doduno.

Look at the Rule 5 history: Rule 5 draft results - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia Recognize many people on this list? Me neither.

In theory you could build a rotation out of that. In theory I could conquer Asia with a spoon, but it ain't gonna happen.

FYI... RA Dickey was taken by Seattle in the 2008 Rule 5 draft. Worked really well for them too. He went 5-8, 5.21 ERA, 1.56 WHIP that year. Yep, you can really build em.

Originally Posted by darin617

So we have you to blame since you must be one of Terry Ryan's advisors...

If the Twins were gonna draft anyone in the Rule 5 draft they should have grabbed a pitcher who can actually throw heat. Not a guy like Pressly.

with out looking up stats , i believe he brings it at 96 or more...and 98mph fireballing lefty was avalible with a 2nd pick,if you wanted more power

Originally Posted by darin617

Not to mention that Span has not played a full season since 2010 with his concussion effects.
I also never knew until today that Trevor May will be nothing more than bullpen help.
I just hope this thread continues to grow to further my Twins knowledge.

i think i said many are already projecting May as a bullpen pitcher....well what do you do with a starter who has an era over 4.80?

Originally Posted by ThePuck

How did Ryan 'fix' the lineup last offseason? Span, Morny and Mauer got healthy...that is what happened.

We got Willingham and Doumit, but we lost Kubel and Cuddy.

He picked up better contribution at more important positions for FAR less money. What more did you want out of the guy (regarding the lineup)?

He bombed at acquiring pitching but it's damn hard to fault him for his lineup acquisitions.

Originally Posted by Fire Dan Gladden

FYI... RA Dickey was taken by Seattle in the 2008 Rule 5 draft. Worked really well for them too. He went 5-8, 5.21 ERA, 1.56 WHIP that year. Yep, you can really build em.

Yeah... Asking a team to build a rotation from the Rule 5 by pointing out that all of baseball has almost drafted a decent rotation over a five year period in the Rule 5 is a bit... Disingenuous at best. Two years ago, the Twins picked up Diamond and he has become a productive starter for the team. You can't ask for much more than that, as it's more than the vast majority of baseball has gotten from the Rule 5 draft in the past several years.

You can fault the Twins for a lot of things but the Rule 5 ain't one of 'em. They've done a decent job of gaming that market over the past 15 years.

Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp

He picked up better contribution at more important positions for FAR less money. What more did you want out of the guy (regarding the lineup)?

He bombed at acquiring pitching but it's damn hard to fault him for his lineup acquisitions.

I wasn't slamming the Willingham and Doumit signings. I like those signings. After the Twins 2011 season came to an end, before the 2011 postseason even finished, I was saying we needed to get those two guys.

What I was saying is that Ryan didn't fix the lineup by getting those two guys. It didn't 'fix' the lineup as the poster suggested. They replaced Cuddy and Kubel. What 'fixed' the lineup was having a healthy Span, Mauer and Morny.

When quoting my post, you missed the rest:

'And, this offseason, how has he done anything more than hurt it?' 'It' being the lineup. Any thoughts on that?

Originally Posted by jokin

I wish I'd said that, oh wait...

Let's face it, under the current ownership and management, the Twins aren't going to ever spend money on quality, higher-end, game-changing FAs, all the more important to create and/or upgrade the means to more consistently find the buried treasure from the various alternative means from which to stock the club with enough talent to compete like the Rays are forced to do. In Rule 5 in the past, they have hit on Santana and Diamond. On the international front, Sano and Kepler may or may not turn out to be big impact guys down the road. Darren Mastroianni might become one of the occasional DFAs that ends up becoming a keeper.

If they aren't going to spend for proven talent, they have to redouble their efforts to identify and acquire more hidden nuggets of talent. What do they have to lose? The Twins were only one pick after Dan Uggla in 2005 in the Rule 5 draft. It is very arguable that Uggla might have put the Twins over the top more than once from 2006-10. Upgrading this area of informational knowledge is cheap compared to the 8 and 9 figure commitments and inherent risks required to secure top-end talent.

Uhh, no, I'm fairly certain that stats and needs were the objective criteria; the player's performances speak for themselves.

It's like you aren't even aware that the Twins picked up a rule 5 pick and an excellent NRI this offseason. Since you seem to be second guessing the Twins I would like to know what you think about Pressley and his potential? And why are you smarter than the Twins about obscure minor leaguers?

Originally Posted by ThePuck

I wasn't slamming the Willingham and Doumit signings. I like those signings. After the Twins 2011 season came to an end, before the 2011 postseason even finished, I was saying we needed to get those two guys.

What I was saying is that Ryan didn't fix the lineup by getting those two guys. It didn't 'fix' the lineup as the poster suggested. They replaced Cuddy and Kubel. What 'fixed' the lineup was having a healthy Span, Mauer and Morny.

When quoting my post, you missed the rest:

'And, this offseason, how has he done anything more than hurt it?' 'It' being the lineup. Any thoughts on that?

Not sure he's 'hurt' the lineup, at least in any real sense. Clearly, with Revere and Span gone it opens up some spots that we all are hoping the younger guys can step in and take. Eventually, that had to happen. So, while I'm sure Hicks, Benson and Arcia will struggle (at least offensively) trying to get them into the lineup was something that had to be done. By your logic, the Twins hurt their lineup when they decided to trade Dougie Baseball or AJ to let Mauer and Morneau get their shots. It has to be done. The interesting thing will be how well Plouffe and Parmelee play this season. I think our offense will go as those two go.

Originally Posted by gunnarthor

By your logic, the Twins hurt their lineup when they decided to trade Dougie Baseball or AJ to let Mauer and Morneau get their shots. It has to be done. The interesting thing will be how well Plouffe and Parmelee play this season. I think our offense will go as those two go.

Except in Mauer's case, he was a #1 pick who was tearing the cover off the ball and everyone knew he was coming up to replace AJ. In Doug's case, he was traded after we had seen Morny and so we knew exactly who was taking his place. And the moves didn't happen at the same time. Who is filling the one and two spot this year?

Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp

Yeah... Asking a team to build a rotation from the Rule 5 by pointing out that all of baseball has almost drafted a decent rotation over a five year period in the Rule 5 is a bit... Disingenuous at best. Two years ago, the Twins picked up Diamond and he has become a productive starter for the team. You can't ask for much more than that, as it's more than the vast majority of baseball has gotten from the Rule 5 draft in the past several years.

You can fault the Twins for a lot of things but the Rule 5 ain't one of 'em. They've done a decent job of gaming that market over the past 15 years.

Disingenuous? Really? I clearly stated that is was all theoretical and that the Rule 5 is a crapshoot, where being forearmed can pay dividends, Diamond demonstrated that fact. I responded to those who said that looking for players in that venue is a complete waste of time, I demonstrated that that is a false assertion and the Twins are living proof of that. Moreover, since they won't spend what it takes for the quick fix, I graphically stated it makes financial sense that the Twins need to improve and redouble their efforts in all of the 4 talent-acquisitiion venues that actually are the topic in this thread.

Not taking virtually no-cost flyers in the Rule 5 Draft's various phases on the likes of the guys I mentioned is what I was referring to. Lara should have been a no-brainer.

I went on to show that the Marlins picked up 3 very intriguing prospects in this year's draft with virtually no down-side risk, without disingenuity.

Literally nobody said that Rule 5 was a waste of time. Literally. Nobody. Go back and run a search.

Get over your ideology and listen for a second.

Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp

He bombed at acquiring pitching but it's damn hard to fault him for his lineup acquisitions.

Since Pitching is at least 75% of baseball, last year was a major Fail, but I don't fault TR for his lineup acquisitions on the 25% aspect of baseball, just a general lack thereof- they didn't completely replace the manpower lost in 2011, still waiting for the MIers above replacement level to surface.

I'm 85% certain that pitching is more like 35% of baseball.

Originally Posted by 70charger

Literally nobody said that Rule 5 was a waste of time. Literally. Nobody. Go back and run a search.

Get over your ideology and listen for a second.

Literally, no. Figuratively, repeatedly.

Crapshoot was the characterization. Here are some of the synonyms:

Synonyms:	shot in the dark, iffy proposition, time-waster, big chance, risk, risky business, spin of the roulette wheel

a venture undertaken without regard to possible loss or injury

I believe that taking a flyer on the likes of Lara literally represents significantly minimal risk with little waste of time.

You are just scraping the bottom of the barrel these days.

let's summarize this thread. The Twins FO failed because they didn't get a pair of hard throwing RP'ers that have been terrible in A ball, their original teams didn't believe in them and EVERY TEAM in the majors passed on them. You're making an awesome argument so far.

I'm still waiting for you to say why you think Pressly was a bad pick. As of right now you're just some random guy on the internet that is spouting off with very little substance. The Twins might make some questionable choices but they have done well in the past with Rule 5, NRI's and DFA's.

I went on to show that the Marlins picked up 3 very intriguing prospects in this year's draft with virtually no down-side risk, without disingenuity.

You've only shown that you have no idea what you are talking about. Do you really want the Twins to be more like the Marlins? Do you know why the Marlins are loading their team up with Rule 5 players? It's because they traded their entire team away and are likely to start with a <20M payroll (if they trade Nolasco). They NEED a bunch of castoffs just to field a team and they are terrible aside from Stanton.

Originally Posted by kab21

let's summarize this thread. The Twins FO failed because they didn't get a pair of hard throwing RP'ers that have been terrible in A ball, their original teams didn't believe in them and EVERY TEAM in the majors passed on them. You're making an awesome argument so far.

I'm still waiting for you to say why you think Pressly was a bad pick. As of right now you're just some random guy on the internet that is spouting off with very little substance. The Twins might make some questionable choices but they have done well in the past with Rule 5, NRI's and DFA's.

You've only shown that you have no idea what you are talking about. Do you really want the Twins to be more like the Marlins? Do you know why the Marlins are loading their team up with Rule 5 players? It's because they traded their entire team away and are likely to start with a <20M payroll (if they trade Nolasco). They NEED a bunch of castoffs just to field a team and they are terrible aside from Stanton.

How many world series wins do the marlins have since 1991? Children born after theTwins last world series victory are now bar hopping.
While not a fan of Loria(he should be banned from baseball) at least from time to time they go all in...

Originally Posted by jokin

Literally, no. Figuratively, repeatedly.

Crapshoot was the characterization. Here are some of the synonyms:

Synonyms:

shot in the dark, iffy proposition, time-waster, big chance, risk, risky business, spin of the roulette wheel

a venture undertaken without regard to possible loss or injury

I believe that taking a flyer on the likes of Lara literally represents significantly minimal risk with little waste of time.

Lara did not even pitch that well in high A ball at age 23. Tampa thought so highly of him they left him unprotected. Although Diamond was a rule 5 pickup it took a trade for a then decent prospect to keep him. Two of your other players still have not pitched at a major league level. Yes it costs little to take a flyer on a player. Shouldn't you have a thorough scouting report so you would not need a flyer? The Twins would have had plenty of views of Lara as they played in many of the same minor leagues?

How many world series wins do the marlins have since 1991? Children born after theTwins last world series victory are now bar hopping.
While not a fan of Loria(he should be banned from baseball) at least from time to time they go all in...

Did you really think about that before you typed it or do you just like to irrationally spout off? I cannot even imagine the complaining that you would do if the Twins traded their entire team away like the Marlins. Especially since the Marlins did it solely to cut payroll and didn't receive the best prospects back.

Loria wasn't responsible for the Marlins WS wins and overall this is a really weak argument. No team regardless of how 'all in' they go have a better than 25% chance at winning the WS in a postseason. The Marlins got lucky.

The one thing Terry Ryan is known for is raiding other teams minor leagues. How many rule 5 picks have they made that worked out to some degree? Shane Mack (actually andy MacPhail) Santana (actually traded from rule 5), Buscher, Diamond, there were others that played in the majors Ryan Rowland-Smith and there was an OF that played a few years for the Mets as a 4th/ 5th OF. Plus all of the trades Ryan has made on top of that for prospects. while the Twins could take Lara in the draft or Pressley doesnt make a difference, as long as they get a chance in spring training to see what they have. Terry Ryan is good at aquiring other teams prospects. He was so good at it that teams stopped trading him prospects for a while or were at least gun shy about it. Teams would actually re-evaluate players Twins were willing to aquire.