ESPN: Twins Optimal Year Of Contention is 2016

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Originally Posted by old nurse

Pot meet kettle

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Cute....how's that Buerhle evidence coming?

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Originally Posted by nicksaviking

Come on, really?

Only Morneau and Willingham could command any extension of any significance and the farm would have to completely implode for there to be room for both of them. Regardless, the Twins always have overvalued the current players while undervalued available free agents. They can extend existing Twins all they want but we all know the problem is, and always has been, that they need top of the rotation arms. There is no one like that on this club to extend, they need to look externally for those arms. So increasing payroll on extensions likely doesn't get this club over the hump even if they do manage to blow another $14 million on Blackburn.

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Would be even think to slot Hermann as DH?

Wait did someone just posit the idea of extending Blackburn through 2016? Well that "Pavano got a huge contract" statement didnt last long as "dumbest thing ever posted". Good god.

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Originally Posted by nicksaviking

Come on, really?

Only Morneau and Willingham could command any extension of any significance and the farm would have to completely implode for there to be room for both of them. Regardless, the Twins always have overvalued the current players while undervalued available free agents. They can extend existing Twins all they want but we all know the problem is, and always has been, that they need top of the rotation arms. There is no one like that on this club to extend, they need to look externally for those arms. So increasing payroll on extensions likely doesn't get this club over the hump even if they do manage to blow another $14 million on Blackburn.

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Point is the claim the Twins won't extend players or sign players is without merit. Top of the rotation arms are a scarce commodity. Pavano was that arm in 2010. They extended him. For 2012 they thought they had 2 in Pavano and Liriano. Take a look at where the proven top of the rotation players go. It is not to teams in the current state the Twins are in.

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Originally Posted by TheLeviathan

Wait did someone just posit the idea of extending Blackburn through 2016? Well that "Pavano got a huge contract" statement didnt last long as "dumbest thing ever posted". Good god.

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If Blackburn came back and posted a Slowey like 13-7 record by being in the right place at the right time, what would the Twins do? You would have greater odds of getting into Harvard Law School than that happening, but it is not out of the realm of possible. Need a second Twins example, Carlos Siva 2004.

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Originally Posted by ThePuck

Would be even think to slot Hermann as DH?

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Wouldn't need to, Willingham and Mauer would do it. People have posted how great Hermann is without any naysayers chiming in.

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Originally Posted by TheLeviathan

Cute....how's that Buerhle evidence coming?

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Cute but not incorrect.
The Buehrle figure came from a reporting of a Ken Rosenthal feed some time ago,

That quote about Blackburn was about his contract coming off the books, not about extending him. At least that is how I read the original quote. It was about payroll size....

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Originally Posted by old nurse

Wouldn't need to, Willingham and Mauer would do it. People have posted how great Hermann is without any naysayers chiming in.

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I'm not being a naysayer...I'm asking whether or not people feel he'd DH since Doumit does a lot of that. I also don't see Willingham being with the team past his contract, at the longest, or Mauer being a primary DH that soon

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Originally Posted by TheLeviathan

Wait did someone just posit the idea of extending Blackburn through 2016? Well that "Pavano got a huge contract" statement didnt last long as "dumbest thing ever posted". Good god.

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I mentioned his contract would be coming off the books along with the contracts of the other players mentioned in the post I quoted...

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Originally Posted by old nurse

Point is the claim the Twins won't extend players or sign players is without merit. Top of the rotation arms are a scarce commodity. Pavano was that arm in 2010. They extended him. For 2012 they thought they had 2 in Pavano and Liriano. Take a look at where the proven top of the rotation players go. It is not to teams in the current state the Twins are in.

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Extending players and signing players are two differnt things. As I said, the Twins are notorious for overpaying for their own guys and not paying for quality free agents, but to fill out postitions of need, the Twins need to sign free agents as well. The Twins have few legit vets to extend and many holes to fill, thus they need to spend more on free agency than they do on extensions, but history implies this is unlikely, probably not as unlikely as Blackburn posting a strong 2013, but unlikely none the less.

And even at his best, no other club would have consider a guy like Pavano who can't maintain a 6.0 K/9 a top of the rotation arm, even if he did have 17 wins.

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Originally Posted by nicksaviking

Extending players and signing players are two differnt things. As I said, the Twins are notorious for overpaying for their own guys and not paying for quality free agents, but to fill out postitions of need, the Twins need to sign free agents as well. The Twins have few legit vets to extend and many holes to fill, thus they need to spend more on free agency than they do on extensions, but history implies this is unlikely, probably not as unlikely as Blackburn posting a strong 2013, but unlikely none the less.

And even at his best, no other club would have consider a guy like Pavano who can't maintain a 6.0 K/9 a top of the rotation arm, even if he did have 17 wins.

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In 2004 Pavano had a similar k/9 ratio. In 2005 the Yankees signed him for top of the rotation money.

In terms of the current Twins now having more cash and signing top (not just any) free agents, show me where the bottom teams have ever signed a top free agent. The term quality would have to be better defined. As used most often here, quality means anyone the Twins did not sign.

In 2016 and 2017 the Twins will be in the bottom third of payroll in MLB. If all we are missing is a SS you know Ryan would go sign a Jamie Carroll type of player. I like Carroll, but you don't go to the World Series with a 38 year old SS.
At least no one ever has.

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Originally Posted by TheLeviathan

The only baseless thing is your need to diminish opinions by slapping a "negative" label on them. Truth is Ryan has never made big contract splashes during his tenure. That is just the truth. We have 20 some million reasons to be justifiably wary of celebrating available payroll. Until it is actually spent (and spent wisely - looking at you Corriea) there is plenty to base that on. So definitionally your entire point here is just smug nonsense.

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I said "supplement the roster with veterans". I never said make "big contract splashes." You're right, that strawman sure was smug.

Let's make a list, someone.

Who is on the 40-man roster in 2013 - Hicks, Santana, Herrmann, May, Tonkin, Pinto, Arcia, Hermsen (these guys will be out of options come 2016)
Guys eating up 40-man years: Benson, Hernandez, Dozier, Hendriks. (These guys need to step up soon and show they belong).

The 40-man roster can only hold so many players, and they DO have to be added at some point. The evils of having too strong of a minor league system is that if guys play to their capabilities and are missed with people promoted on fast track, you suddenly have too many people knocking at the door but too small of an entryway.

Who do the Twins need to add to the 40-man in 2014.
Who in 2015.
Who in 2016.

The magic word is NEED.

They can compete earlier if they supplement the roster with trades and/or free agent signings.

One more question: Besides Mauer, who on the current roster will still be a Twin come 2016?

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Originally Posted by nicksaviking

Ryan and the front office have time and time again said they will not over pay for free agents. You think they are really going to start "overpaying" for guys? That's their singular excuse when it comes to lowballing free agents. The Twins only had the +100 million payroll because they got the new stadium and had to take care of their own guys, the Mauers, Morneaus, Cuddyers and Nathans. They didn't get that large payroll by signing expensive free agents. They never value free agents nearly as gererously as they do thier own guys. Payroll won't go up until they have to start giving new contracts to the new crop of guys and that won't be for over a half decade.

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No, they shouldn't overpay. But i also think their continued frugality (cheapness) is non-tenable. They just aren't going to have a payroll of 60 million in 2015/16. They will acquire vets with larger contracts either in FA or in trade.

Look, I don't think they will go out and sign stars, but they will sign another round of Doumits, Willinghams, Saunders during 2015/16; that's not crazy, that's completely reasonable. To argue this point is puffed-up negativity.

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Originally Posted by ThePuck

That's not the case with me at all...when presented with a strong counterargument based on actual trends or stats or something close to pretty strong evidence, I'll change my opinion...or at least be open to the fact I could be wrong. Truth is, for me, it's about getting to the truth. If I'm wrong and I'm shown to be wrong, I'll happily admit it..especially in a case like this where it'd mean we were much better than I think we'll be.

Unfortunately you haven't presented that.

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How about the 2012 Oakland A's as proof it can be done?

Their top 5 hitters in AB:
Reddick - Age 25, first full year, three partials
Cespedes - Age 27, rookie
Weeks - Age 25, second full season
Crisp - 33, veteran
Pennington - 28, 4 years, 3 as a starter

Top 5 Pitchers (IP)
Milone - 25, rookie
Parker - 24, rookie
Colon - 39, veteran
McCarthy - 28, 7 year vet
Blackley/Griffin - 29/24, both essentially rookies

What do they have that the Twins can't manage by 2016?

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Originally Posted by Oldgoat_MN

In 2016 and 2017 the Twins will be in the bottom third of payroll in MLB. If all we are missing is a SS you know Ryan would go sign a Jamie Carroll type of player. I like Carroll, but you don't go to the World Series with a 38 year old SS.
At least no one ever has.

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Don't tell Phil Rizzuto that.

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Originally Posted by Physics Guy

How about the 2012 Oakland A's as proof it can be done?

Their top 5 hitters in AB:
Reddick - Age 25, first full year, three partials
Cespedes - Age 27, rookie
Weeks - Age 25, second full season
Crisp - 33, veteran
Pennington - 28, 4 years, 3 as a starter

Top 5 Pitchers (IP)
Milone - 25, rookie
Parker - 24, rookie
Colon - 39, veteran
McCarthy - 28, 7 year vet
Blackley/Griffin - 29/24, both essentially rookies

What do they have that the Twins can't manage by 2016?

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If that's the argument then every single team in baseball is a contender every year...sold...without exception. Cool...2016 it is. Heck, why not this year?

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Originally Posted by LastOnePicked

I just wonder who will be leading the team in 2016. Mauer may end being worth his contract, but he clearly has no interest in a leadership role in the clubhouse. And it seems to me that this team is a bit quick to equate a little "fire" with too much "attitude" when it comes to young players. Maybe I'm wrong, but I can't imagine that any Gardenhire-led team is capable of bringing home the league pennant or WS trophy, even if the players you all reference turn out to be the '27 Yankees. I still love the Twins, but I can share none of the optimism here -- at least until team chemstry or culture changes.

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So what's it like getting to hang around extensively in a big league clubhouse? An article, or at least a blog post, on your other obvservations would be pretty interesting with that type of access.