02-04-2013, 02:25 AM #61
For those that think Mastroianni will start the season in CF do you think the Twins sign a 4th OF type last minute or bring up one of the AAAA guys? Who is available to be the back up CF that is currently in the Twins minor leagues?
02-04-2013, 02:43 AM #62
Last edited by jokin; 02-04-2013 at 03:16 AM.
02-04-2013, 06:58 AM #63
A few problems... First, you're using oWAR for one player and WAR for another to make Lawton look good. Second, you're using two more years of Lawton's numbers to (again) make him look good, even though the Twins (or the Mets) didn't have him under contract.
Rick Reed's WAR:
2001: 2.8/-0.2, 2002: 2.6, 2003: 0.7
Matt Lawton's WAR:
2001: 2.0/0.2, 2002: 1.0, 2003: 1.0
It's a wash and actually slightly in Reed's favor if you want to put that much stock in WAR's accuracy. Like I said, the trade was a wash. Reed didn't pitch well for the Twins in 2001 but it wasn't a bad trade, as Reed was a solid pitcher in 2002 and a mediocre one in 2003.
02-04-2013, 07:52 AM #64Do or do not. There is no try.
02-04-2013, 08:38 AM #65
02-04-2013, 08:42 AM #66
02-04-2013, 09:07 AM #67
Here is how I envision the starting line-up coming out of spring training.
I realize that Dozier has been working out some at 2B but with SS being a premium position, I don't think the Twins give up on him there yet without a potential top line replacement in the minors, and that doesn't exist yet.
Even though his age is against him, I think Carroll gets the starting 2B job with Escobar being a possibility. Steady defense is the deciding factor with the Twins starting pitching as it is. I think Escobar and Floriman both see significant time in the starting line-up at 2b and SS respectively with the Twins allowing things to sort themselves out as the season goes.
Parmelee will start in RF. The Twins have pretty much said this since the trades of Span and Revere.
Benson gets a chance in CF with Hicks starting in AAA. I thinks Hicks may very well earn a roster spot but the Twins will start him in AAA and let Mastroianni start the season as the 4th OF. We should see Hicks if there is an injury, if Benson is horrible and plays his way out the line-up, or once June 1 is past.
My thoughts are based on how the Twins typically handle things and what seems realistic.
02-04-2013, 09:30 AM #68
The thread is to guess the opening day lineup, not the long-term lineup? I have a hard time filling it out for that, cause I honestly suspect they're "giving" the MI jobs to Florimon (cause apparently he's a defensive wizard or something) and Dozier (who probably does deserve another chance, especially compared to the other options, he has the potential to hit some at least), meaning one of the only decent OBP guys (Carroll) they have isn't in the opening day lineup. Carroll's going to play a lot this year, but they're pretending they have their Middle Infield of the future on opening day to try and sell hope. I don't think it lasts as Florimon hits (misses) his way out of the lineup eventually. Reading the tea leaves says Gardenhire wants Hicks as his CF as well. So guessing:
CF - Hicks
2B - Dozier
C - Mauer
LF - WIllingham
1B - Morneau
DH - Doumit
3B - Plouffe
RF - Parmelee
SS - Florimon
If that was the opening day starters, I'd drop Dozier down to 8th and slide everyone else up, but I don't think Gardenhire does that.
02-04-2013, 10:30 AM #69
They need to find out if Benson is going to produce this year, I believe he'll get that chance, considering the year of control the team will want to keep on Hicks. Florimon could just as easily start at SS but the team is better off with Carroll's bat . SS is just a mess and an all round crappy situation.
I also wouldn't be too surprised if Worley got the start over Diamond.
02-04-2013, 05:57 PM #70
02-04-2013, 06:20 PM #71
C - Mauer/Doumit/Hermann
1B - Morneau
2B - Carroll/Dozier
3B - Plouffe
SS - Florimon/Escobar
LF - Willingham
CF - Benson/Mastroani
RF - Parmalee
Which allows them some flexibility with how they play their outfield/DH/1B. Personally, I think Doumit is ideally not an everyday player but more of a 4 times a week guy. Fingers crossed that Benson does exactly that.
02-04-2013, 07:40 PM #72
The AAA team last year had no one with a good year who didn't see time in a Twins uniform.
The surprise guy could wind up being Arcia.
I'd bet he has a better chance of coming north with the team than Hicks.
02-04-2013, 09:24 PM #73
02-04-2013, 09:40 PM #74
04-01-2013, 08:37 AM #75
04-01-2013, 08:45 AM #76
Last edited by Ultima Ratio; 04-01-2013 at 09:15 AM. Reason: CorrectionMan is born free, but everywhere he is in chains.
04-01-2013, 08:52 AM #77
04-01-2013, 09:22 AM #78
Thanks guys. I had a feeling Gardy was going to come around on Mauer hitting second, considering the other options available.
04-01-2013, 09:29 AM #79
04-01-2013, 09:37 AM #80
nicely done Nick. Now how are you at predicting the number of runs that will be scored by this lineup?