Thread: Twins - # of wins in 2013

Originally Posted by twinsnorth49

First law of probability.

Do laws of probability explain why athletes are like coins?

The first law, as usually stated, is a bit circular, as it asserts independence of individual events. It doesn't demonstrate that the independence exists. Dozier and Plouffe both improving at bat, for instance, might be because the two of them both benefit from Brunansky being with the parent club; or it could be from them sitting together on the bench between at-bats and discussing their approaches at the plate and having some kind of simultaneous epiphany about Uncle Charley.

Nothing really wrong with 7 heads out of 9 flips as a quick estimate of how much assumption is being built into one's season forecast. But it's not really a mathematical theorem either.

74 wins. Solid improvement from Morneau and Parmelee help offset the loss of Span and Revere; a mediocre (as opposed to awful) rotation keeps the team in far more games.

Originally Posted by The Greatest Poster Alive

A coin landing heads or tails is completely independent of the previous outcome of flipping said coin. Sorry, I just really hate that analogy.

And each player's results are independent of one another, unless we somehow get to have two players go hit during every plate appearance. (And, really, the chances of any one of those players having a career year is probably less than 50%.)