Thread: Murphy: Inteview with Terry Ryan

'Q: What are you demanding of this new rotation? A: Health. If we're healthy, I think we'll be OK. '

So it makes sense he traded for a pitcher who was hurt last year (Worley) and signed a guy coming off TJ surgery (Pelfrey) and, of course, a guy with a healthy track record of Harden...

Originally Posted by drjim

I would argue IP is the single most important stat for a starting pitcher. By far.

In an abstract sense, yes. After all, all pitching stats are only relevant when compared to IP.

As a stat on its own, no way.

Are runs and outs not the two most important stats in baseball? IP is the measure of how many outs you get.

I will agree that ks, bbs, hrs tell you quite a bit about performance but they are much less useful in smaller samples. Any good starting pitcher will say that their goal in the start of the season is to hit x amount of innings and everything else takes care of itself.

Originally Posted by thrylos98

As would be minutes played for basketball players and plays in for football players?
(all 3 manager's/coach's choice stats...)

This is a terrible comparison.

Unless the team has absolutely no options or the manager is insane. IP will tell you that a pitcher is decent because if he's not... He won't be given any more innings to throw.

Yes there are a ton of different variables to that... it's not cut and dried but nothing really ever is... In a very simple way... IP is a good measure to cut thru a lot of bull and determine if a pitcher has been healthy and at least somewhat effective. If he ain't healthy and he ain't effective... It will show up in IP.

I kinda agree with the point that drjim is making. At least the point that I think he is making.

Originally Posted by thrylos98

If I wanted to trade a guy and keep his value high, I would say that he is "an integral part of this team", "would love to sign him long term", "he is a clubhouse leader" and all those kind of cliches that Ryan is saying about Morneau.

Plus, I would not take Ryan's word as a gospel. This is the guy who said "no more scholarships" from one side of his mouth and handed Butera one from the other side of his mouth. And this is the guy who said that his goal for the 2013 Twins is to compete (in the same article) "we're going to go into this season looking to compete"

Huge grain of salt...

With the amount of criticism you repeatedly dish out regarding Butera, assistant coaches, etc, I do wonder if you have a fundamental understanding of what things are actually important to making a baseball team win.

In the mind of Twins' personnel, Butera has done his job and met their expectations over the last few of years. To them he has earned the job and it is not a scholarship. You can disagree and lament his crappy bat all you want, but that's how it is. Probably best to come to terms with this reality.

Originally Posted by Riverbrian

Unless the team has absolutely no options or the manager is insane. IP will tell you that a pitcher is decent because if he's not... He won't be given any more innings to throw.

Yes there are a ton of different variables to that... it's not cut and dried but nothing really ever is... In a very simple way... IP is a good measure to cut thru a lot of bull and determine if a pitcher has been healthy and at least somewhat effective. If he ain't healthy and he ain't effective... It will show up in IP.

I kinda agree with the point that drjim is making. At least the point that I think he is making.

This is a good summary. I would never say IP is the only stat that matters, but it is a really quick way to determine health and effectiveness. It is always the first stat I look at for starting pitchers.

Originally Posted by Seth Stohs

Once Butera was promoted, Mauer and Doumit could play every day and Butera played a good role as the backup catcher who rarely played.

Once the ink was dry on Doumit's contract, it was clear the Twins would carry a third catcher and it would be someone like Butera. In a day and age where teams often carry only 13 position players, someone like Doumit strikes me as a false bargain. Sign a good-field no-hit catcher, and you have to compensate with a bench player who will pinch-hit for this catcher when you are behind; in other games, this bench player can handle a different role. When you sign a good-hit no-field catcher, your bench option is to get another catcher. This is why the Twins were able to "out bid" any other team for Doumit's services.

The scholarship to Butera is just shorthand for this larger strategic choice.

Originally Posted by drjim

This is a good summary. I would never say IP is the only stat that matters, but it is a really quick way to determine health and effectiveness. It is always the first stat I look at for starting pitchers.

Because it's usually on the far left of the stat line?

Originally Posted by FrodaddyG

Because it's usually on the far left of the stat line?

I was thinking more end of the year.

Plenty to chew on in Ryan's interview. Here's one:

> We're going to have to pitch better to do that, and we're going to have to hit better with runners in scoring position to do that.

Check, on the first half of this. I can't believe the second part is key for the offense. The Twins scored 100+ runs fewer than the Rangers did in 2012; surely the fact that the Rangers hit 30 more doubles and 70 more homers than the Twins goes a very long way toward explaining this difference, without resorting to RISP stats. An inning here and there where the Twins follow a single with a single, while the Rangers follow a single with a run-scoring double or a homer, matters more than hoping you can somehow be more able than other teams to bat .400 when someone's on second.

Originally Posted by ashburyjohn

Plenty to chew on in Ryan's interview. Here's one:

> We're going to have to pitch better to do that, and we're going to have to hit better with runners in scoring position to do that.

Maybe they'll bring back whatever advance scouts they gave the credit to for the ridiculous RISP stats they had a few years back. They've apparently been AWOL since then.

Originally Posted by Nick Nelson

With the amount of criticism you repeatedly dish out regarding Butera, assistant coaches, etc, I do wonder if you have a fundamental understanding of what things are actually important to making a baseball team win.

In the mind of Twins' personnel, Butera has done his job and met their expectations over the last few of years. To them he has earned the job and it is not a scholarship. You can disagree and lament his crappy bat all you want, but that's how it is. Probably best to come to terms with this reality.

Yes. Calling Butera a part of the scholarship program is a big misunderstanding. The Twins are quite aware he is a solid glove/no bat backup C. He will be lucky to get 100-120 ABs this year but is acceptable on the roster because Mauer and Doumit play almost every day and have defensive issues of their own.

Better to have him on the roster than Hermann, who can stay in the minors and play everyday to continue developing. If Mauer or Doumit got hurt I would guess Hermann gets called up and takes most of the ABs while Butera would stay in his current role.

Originally Posted by ashburyjohn

Plenty to chew on in Ryan's interview. Here's one:

> We're going to have to pitch better to do that, and we're going to have to hit better with runners in scoring position to do that.

Check, on the first half of this. I can't believe the second part is key for the offense. The Twins scored 100+ runs fewer than the Rangers did in 2012; surely the fact that the Rangers hit 30 more doubles and 70 more homers than the Twins goes a very long way toward explaining this difference, without resorting to RISP stats. An inning here and there where the Twins follow a single with a single, while the Rangers follow a single with a run-scoring double or a homer, matters more than hoping you can somehow be more able than other teams to bat .400 when someone's on second.

Not nit picking. but isn't hitting for more power hitting better?

Originally Posted by ashburyjohn

Once the ink was dry on Doumit's contract, it was clear the Twins would carry a third catcher and it would be someone like Butera. In a day and age where teams often carry only 13 position players, someone like Doumit strikes me as a false bargain. Sign a good-field no-hit catcher, and you have to compensate with a bench player who will pinch-hit for this catcher when you are behind

Except that you can't really do that with the Twins because chances are, your other catcher (Joe Mauer) is the DH. If your second catcher goes down, you lose the DH. Now, that doesn't matter to someone like me. I think the Twins should carry two catchers because losing the DH doesn't matter for two innings in a game where your catcher gets injured. The Twins obviously feel differently about it.

So if you're willing to pinch-hit for your backup catcher on a two catcher roster, it's no different than inserting two catchers into the lineup at the same time, which renders Butera off both rosters. So, in the thinking of the Twins, you either refuse to pinch-hit for your backup catcher on a two catcher roster or you carry a third catcher for that inevitable emergency that never seems to actually happen.

Originally Posted by ashburyjohn

in other games, this bench player can handle a different role. When you sign a good-hit no-field catcher, your bench option is to get another catcher. This is why the Twins were able to "out bid" any other team for Doumit's services.

The scholarship to Butera is just shorthand for this larger strategic choice.

See above. With or without Doumit, the Twins would probably carry a third catcher because Mauer plays nearly every day and whether Doumit is a good defensive catcher is irrelevant. See 2008 and 2009 when Joe Mauer was playing 120+ games at catcher. You either leave Mauer on the bench (a huge offensive loss) or you refuse to pinch-hit for Mike Redmond and his woeful bat, period. The rest of the bench played virtually no role in that decision. It was all about Mauer and not losing that precious DH spot for an inning or two if an injury occurred.

This has everything to do with the Twins' ideas on how to build a roster around Joe Mauer, not Ryan Doumit.

Originally Posted by Riverbrian

Unless the team has absolutely no options or the manager is insane. IP will tell you that a pitcher is decent because if he's not... He won't be given any more innings to throw.

Yes there are a ton of different variables to that... it's not cut and dried but nothing really ever is... In a very simple way... IP is a good measure to cut thru a lot of bull and determine if a pitcher has been healthy and at least somewhat effective. If he ain't healthy and he ain't effective... It will show up in IP.

I kinda agree with the point that drjim is making. At least the point that I think he is making.

Then it just goes to show that a high IP total is simply a byproduct of being a good pitcher. It is the other factors, high K/9, keeping runners off base, keeping zero's on the board, that make a pitcher good. The high innings pitched simply is the result of those factors. It doesn't work the other way around. Having a high IP doesn't prevent baserunners or runs or produce a higher K%.

Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp

Except that you can't really do that with the Twins because chances are, your other catcher (Joe Mauer) is the DH. If your second catcher goes down, you lose the DH. Now, that doesn't matter to someone like me. I think the Twins should carry two catchers because losing the DH doesn't matter for two innings in a game where your catcher gets injured. The Twins obviously feel differently about it.

So if you're willing to pinch-hit for your backup catcher on a two catcher roster, it's no different than inserting two catchers into the lineup at the same time, which renders Butera off both rosters. So, in the thinking of the Twins, you either refuse to pinch-hit for your backup catcher on a two catcher roster or you carry a third catcher for that inevitable emergency that never seems to actually happen.




See above. With or without Doumit, the Twins would probably carry a third catcher because Mauer plays nearly every day and whether Doumit is a good defensive catcher is irrelevant. See 2008 and 2009 when Joe Mauer was playing 120+ games at catcher. You either leave Mauer on the bench (a huge offensive loss) or you refuse to pinch-hit for Mike Redmond and his woeful bat, period. The rest of the bench played virtually no role in that decision. It was all about Mauer and not losing that precious DH spot for an inning or two if an injury occurred.

This has everything to do with the Twins' ideas on how to build a roster around Joe Mauer, not Ryan Doumit.

Exactly right and thoroughly addressed! Hopefully Chris Herrmann steps up and makes having a third catcher on the roster actually sensible. Because it is NOT sensible now.

In fairness to the IP thing, other than WAR (of course), if there were one stat category that I could magically see for the 2013 season, I probably would pick IP for perhaps every one on this staff. That would be informative about how things went. Perhaps the same can be said for the batters and plate appearances.

Originally Posted by nicksaviking

Then it just goes to show that a high IP total is simply a byproduct of being a good pitcher. It is the other factors, high K/9, keeping runners off base, keeping zero's on the board, that make a pitcher good. The high innings pitched simply is the result of those factors. It doesn't work the other way around. Having a high IP doesn't prevent baserunners or runs or produce a higher K%.

This

Originally Posted by Nick Nelson

With the amount of criticism you repeatedly dish out regarding Butera, assistant coaches, etc, I do wonder if you have a fundamental understanding of what things are actually important to making a baseball team win.

In the mind of Twins' personnel, Butera has done his job and met their expectations over the last few of years. To them he has earned the job and it is not a scholarship. You can disagree and lament his crappy bat all you want, but that's how it is. Probably best to come to terms with this reality.

Thanks Nick!