02-11-2013, 04:31 PM #1
Murphy: 5 Questions About The Twins
I like that he pays attention to the problems the Twins have had with their depth. He also doesn't pull any punches when talking about Chris Parmelee and Justin Morneau.
It is unlikely the Twins, who are compensating Mauer $23 million per year through 2018, would be willing to pay market value ($80 million to $100 million?) to re-invest in another prime slugger, especially if they are out of contention by the July 31 trade deadline.
Parmelee is a better fit playing first base than trying to navigate the tricky contours and strategic demands of right field. He shredded Class AAA pitching last season and is poised for a breakout season.
The writing is on the wall here, folks.
02-11-2013, 04:38 PM #2
I think this is pretty commonly known. I'd be quite shocked if the Twins re-signed Morneau unless Parmelee totally implodes. Even then, spending big on a 32-year-old injury-prone first baseman doesn't really fit with a rebuild/youth movement. I strongly doubt Morneau will be looking at a contract anywhere close to $80 million though.
02-11-2013, 04:41 PM #3
I could come up with more than 5 questions.
That's not surprising because I have a lot of questions.
Not all baseball related... Like how does this lava lamp sitting next to me work exactly?
02-11-2013, 04:53 PM #4
Also, I keep seeing people refer to Aaron Hicks' 2012 season in New Britain as "solid." Illustrates to me a fundamental misunderstanding of just how brilliant his season truly was.
Murphy does touch on a point in the last question that I think is important: the reinforcements for failed/injured players this year should be exponentially better. Having guys like May, Meyer and Arcia potentially ready to step in midway through the year could be pretty big. There were really no players of that caliber available in the high minors the past couple years.
02-11-2013, 04:56 PM #5
With his injury history, I don't think Morneau is going to command the 80-100 million salary some are predicting. He's missed at least 25 games each year for the last four years, and if he gets one more hard knock to the head he's probably out of the game for good. Even if he has his best year ever, I'd be surprised if anyone tried to lock him up for longer than 3 or 4 years. In that range, it's much more likely that the Twins will be able to make a decent offer, and there doesn't seem to be any indication that Morneau actually WANTS to leave the Twins.
When you look at this situation, I think you also have to consider what Doumit's role is going to be going forward. Is he going to be our main DH guy? Is he going to primarily be a #2 catcher and bench bat? Will he end up getting traded?
How about Mauer? If the team intends for him to eventually transition to 1b, does it make sense handing to Parmelee for a short period of time, or would be better off trading Parmelee to a team desperate for left handed bats and first basemen?
Assuming Parmelee struggles defensively in RF but does well offensively, I could see a situation over the next few years where he and Morneau essentially platoon DH and 1b, with Parmelee eventually spending more and more time on the field. Of course, that's assuming Mauer keeps catching (or moves to 3b), and Doumit isn't our full-time DH.
Anyway you look at it though, our myriad of options at 1b in the near future is probably the single best problem the twins have to face
02-11-2013, 05:30 PM #6
I like Doumit, but his sub .800 OPS is not something that you hang your future on.
Parmelee should get every opportunity. If he falters we could very well see Arcia this summer.
I really expect Morneau to have a good year. Just sayin'.
02-11-2013, 05:35 PM #7
I fully expected Morneau to be traded at the deadline coming into this season. But now that we've been seeing what kind of leverage teams have over players like this if they make them a qualifying offer, I think it's at least plausible that they keep him around if he turns out to be fully healthy. Then, after the season, they offer him another year at $13/14 million (or whatever qualifying is). He turns it down, they get compensation that would make up for the lack of a trade return. He accepts, great, another year of healthy Morneau.
And I do think that if he stays healthy, Morneau is worth $13 or 14 million. Terry Ryan says that he worries less about overpaying in dollars than he does overpaying in years. Given the opportunity to tack on extra years one by one should be appealing to him, don't you think?
02-11-2013, 10:15 PM #8
I think you are right though, that if he stays healthy and plays at top form he'll be worth 13+ a year, and I can see the Twins offering him a two year deal, maybe with an option year.
I guess I look at it this way. In two years we could have Buxton, Arcia, and Hicks in the OF, Sano, Rosario, at 2b and 3b, and a slew of hot young pitchers looking to prove themselves. If given the choice between a healthy 34 year old Morneau or a 26 year old Parmelee at 1b, I think I'd definitely take Morneau. That's the kind of thing that could make a difference between a team going 3 and out in divisional play vs. going to game 7 of the world series.
02-11-2013, 10:22 PM #9
If Parmelee plays well and Morneau rebounds and the team struggles at the same time... It would seem to make sense to try and get something for Morneau at the deadline.
However... I just have a gut feeling that Morneau is a TWIN!!! There seems to be a loyalty side to the front office. I don't see them spending big money on Free Agents but I do see them spending on keeping players.
I think they will work something out and Morneau returns for 2014 regardless of what Parmelee does.
Just a gut feeling with no basis.
02-12-2013, 08:56 AM #10
But why would Justin sign here, if he can go elsewhere? That is the part I do not compute.
02-12-2013, 09:16 AM #11
Parmalee is no sure thing
Murphy seems to feel that Parmalee will replace Morneau, I feel it is wait and see. If Parmalee gets off to a slow start, Arcia rakes in Rochester and Morneau hits well here it is time to extend Morneau, bring up Arcia and exile Parmalee as one of those great AAA hitters who cannot make it in the big time.
02-12-2013, 09:38 AM #12
Just a gut feeling that the Twins would like Justin to stay based on no inside information at all.
02-12-2013, 09:41 AM #13
I have a feeling that both Morneau and Willingham will be on the block. Willingham is one of the better values in the league right now and like Morneau he's getting to an age where you can't be certain of how many more years they have left for peak production.
They could both be very attractive players to competing teams this year and could net some nice prospects. I would be very surprised if at least one of them wasn't traded.
02-12-2013, 10:28 AM #14
With his history Morneau will be very lucky to get a Willingham type contract next winter, imo. If he has any health issues he may be looking at a 1 year deal.
Just doesn't make sense to stick a lot of money in a guy that can't stay on the field. He is 32 in May and next year any new contract will be for his 33 yr old and on years."WAR, what is it good for? Absolutely nothin'!" Edwin Starr
02-12-2013, 12:00 PM #15
Recall the interview with St.Peter "...build this thing and do it the right way." Is Extending Morneau consistent with that statement? No, not in my opinion. The Twins are looking at multiple 1B candidates from within their franchise and one must include Mauer in that group (as distateful as that reads). If Parmalee is judged a failure--there are many other options for 1B (as well as RF). The Twins would simply shout "Next!"
02-12-2013, 12:19 PM #16
02-12-2013, 12:27 PM #17
I know it seems odd these days, but not every professional athlete has a "mercenary" mentality.
02-12-2013, 12:32 PM #18
I agree, every player is different. Frankly, I would most want guys willing to do anything for A WS that was not cheating. Those are all good reasons to stay, I would go where the team was actually playing to win, but others would not.
02-12-2013, 12:35 PM #19
Unless Parmelee falls flat on his face, he plays one year in RF and then takes over at 1B. I hate to see Morneau go, but I can't see him sticking around unless Doumit is gone to free up AB at DH.
02-12-2013, 01:48 PM #20
I just can't shake the feeling that Twins would try to keep him regardless out of loyalty for lack of a better word.
if the Twins reach a deal with Morneau... I won't be surprised and I would also be OK with it. I've been a fan of his since I was begging for his call up in 2003. Even if Morneau and Parmelee on the same team clog things up.