Thread: Neal: Who Pitchers On Opening Day?

Originally Posted by LoganJones

It makes more sense to line Worley up against a second or third starter. You want to try and get as many mismatches in your own favor. Let a guy like Correia deal with the Verlanders of the world. Last year, KC gave up 0-2 Runs in 50% of his starts. The others were 3-6. If we cut that to 3 runs, it's 22 starts. Verlander had 26 starts of his 33 result in 3 or fewer runs. Verlander often went deeper into many of these games and is head and shoulders a better pitcher. He will be better than every one of the Twins pitchers. Why waste the best outings the team's going to get from their younger pitchers, when you can let a vet take his lumps on days when the team was gonna lose anyway (so to speak)? Particularly, if when you do line it up right and JV has a bad day, and KC has a good one that's a win you weren't looking for?

There will be very few pitching mismatches in the Twins favour this year I'm afraid, certainly none in the opening series.

Inverted rotation may work to get better matchups, We are dogs in all Detroit matchups.

Originally Posted by John Bonnes

Neal runs through the options for Opening Day starter, stating a case for each. If I had to guess right now, I'd go with the dark horse - this guy....



Who pitches for the Twins on Opening Day? | StarTribune.com

I think it's a relatively telling state that the worst pitching staff in the league has one pitcher go down and has no clear answer to this question despite having a full offseason

I've predicted Worley, but I could see the Twins giving it to someone like Correia.

For the Twins to compete, better be Harden

Originally Posted by thrylos98

For the Twins to compete, better be Harden

Or then there's this. If Harden could recapture some of his promise and a bunch of health, the rotation starts to sneak into legit territory. Harden you would put up against the JVs and CCs.

Originally Posted by LoganJones

It makes more sense to line Worley up against a second or third starter. You want to try and get as many mismatches in your own favor. Let a guy like Correia deal with the Verlanders of the world. Last year, KC gave up 0-2 Runs in 50% of his starts. The others were 3-6. If we cut that to 3 runs, it's 22 starts. Verlander had 26 starts of his 33 result in 3 or fewer runs. Verlander often went deeper into many of these games and is head and shoulders a better pitcher. He will be better than every one of the Twins pitchers. Why waste the best outings the team's going to get from their younger pitchers, when you can let a vet take his lumps on days when the team was gonna lose anyway (so to speak)? Particularly, if when you do line it up right and JV has a bad day, and KC has a good one that's a win you weren't looking for?

Your opening pitching matchups last through the first series, maybe. After that, off days, injuries, promotions, demotions and a bunch of unknowns make lining up pitching matchups impossible. Worrying about who Detroit has going on opening day is sort of silly.

Originally Posted by LoganJones

Harden you would put up against the JVs and CCs.

Sure, in the sense that technically, the Twins would have to have someone pitch when those guys start against them.

Drew Butera: strike thrower.

Originally Posted by thrylos98

For the Twins to compete, better be Harden

I find it hard to embrace the hope that he can be what he once was. But I don't know any of the fundamentals about what it takes for a pitcher to come back from his injuries.

I attended his first home start when he was with the A's in 2003 and his changeup was absolutely killer - the Indians stood there unable to pull the trigger, time after time after time.

But if he's lost something off the fastball, permanently, can he replicate the old magic? Could be that batters now can say that if it looks like a fastball, treat it like a change up and try to pull it, and if it happens to be a fastball then you may end up going the other way for a base hit instead. As I said, I need someone with better grasp of hitting than I have, to tell me. And if he tries to win with something else than a changeup, then he's not the same pitcher and the previous track record wouldn't count for a lot.

Originally Posted by beckmt

Inverted rotation may work to get better matchups, We are dogs in all Detroit matchups.

The guys at the top of the rotation get more starts since you can take advantage of off-days to give them more rest. This is a very bad idea.

Originally Posted by terencemann

The guys at the top of the rotation get more starts since you can take advantage of off-days to give them more rest. This is a very bad idea.

Under Gardy, the Twins generally have not skipped starters so the #1 guy gets the same number of starts as the #5 guy.

Originally Posted by glunn

I am hoping that Worley earns this honor. He seems to have the most upside of the likely candidates.

This.

I think Worley is probably the best pitcher on the roster behind possibly Diamond. I know manger logic and unwritten rules may dictate that the most experienced guy starts but I thin Worley is the #1 in the rotation if Diamond is out.

Originally Posted by terencemann

The guys at the top of the rotation get more starts since you can take advantage of off-days to give them more rest. This is a very bad idea.

Obviously you wouldn't do this in a regular scenario where your top pitchers had a record of going deep into games and deep into seasons. his is a way to try to massage what you have. When you're trying to do more with less, you sometimes need to do things differently.

Originally Posted by mcrow

This.

I think Worley is probably the best pitcher on the roster behind possibly Diamond. I know manger logic and unwritten rules may dictate that the most experienced guy starts but I thin Worley is the #1 in the rotation if Diamond is out.

Worley is probably better than Diamond, too. It'll be interesting to see how they both hold up physically. I'd like to see Worley get it. Or Harden, if he's actually able. Ryan has consistently referred to Correia as a lower part of the rotation guy; I guess this will show if the rest of the organization does, too.

Originally Posted by crarko

Worley is probably better than Diamond, too. It'll be interesting to see how they both hold up physically. I'd like to see Worley get it. Or Harden, if he's actually able. Ryan has consistently referred to Correia as a lower part of the rotation guy; I guess this will show if the rest of the organization does, too.

I predict Diamond will take a step back this year and I see this year as a step up year for Worley so I agree that Worley may be the best pitcher on the roster. However, Diamond looked good last year and I'm not going to just hand it to the new guy unless it's by a good margin unless there is real, on-field reason to say so.

Ryan has hinted at that they're really looking at Harden to be a bullpen guy.

Originally Posted by mcrow

Ryan has hinted at that they're really looking at Harden to be a bullpen guy.

Yeah, I know. It's my guilty pleasure to hope he rediscovers himself and becomes a leader of the staff. Looooong shot though it is.

Originally Posted by mcrow

I predict Diamond will take a step back this year and I see this year as a step up year for Worley so I agree that Worley may be the best pitcher on the roster. However, Diamond looked good last year and I'm not going to just hand it to the new guy unless it's by a good margin unless there is real, on-field reason to say so.

Ryan has hinted at that they're really looking at Harden to be a bullpen guy.

I agree with all this, but I don't think Diamond is going to be good to go on opening day, is he? Bone chip surgery or some such thing?

It would be a great honor for him, and well-deserved after bailing the team out so much last year. He was the lone consistent bright spot on the pitching staff. But if he's not ready he's not ready.

I don't place much stock in spring training, and I'm occasionally disappointed when the Twins do. But with the freak show of question marks the Twins will be assembling their rotation from, it seems pointless to speculate who gets the nod until we've seen them pitch. That's assuming that, as mentioned above, Diamond isn't ready.

Originally Posted by crarko

Yeah, I know. It's my guilty pleasure to hope he rediscovers himself and becomes a leader of the staff. Looooong shot though it is.

Back when he was still being scorned by nitwits like Joe Morgan, Bill James observed that in any give season, about 10 percent of the pitchers in the majors had been "left for dead" at one point or another in their careers. Harden's odds of pitching effectively may be worse than that , and his upside no longer what it was at his peak, but rooting for a comeback of some stripe from him beats rooting for Kevin Correia to keep being Kevin Correia for another season.

I'm pulling for Kyle Gibson... because it would be fun.

My gut says Pelfrey.