02-14-2013, 11:12 PM #1
Article: Deconstructing Diamond
You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?r=...ucting-Diamond
02-14-2013, 11:39 PM #2
I wish there was similar data to study Allan Anderson.
What made him so effective for such a small window of time? Parallels to Diamond? His first full season was his best. I hope we haven't seen the best of Diamond yet.
02-15-2013, 08:36 AM #3
I hope so too. There are certainly reasons to be encouraged by what he did last year. I find no reason to think that he can't be equally successful, if he pitches as he did last season.
02-15-2013, 08:51 AM #4
That was a really fun read. It's nice to know that his success last year wasn't really based on luck, but just by pitching really well. His late regression is still worrying, of course, but maybe he's just the rare guy who has really, really good control, and it just took him a while to find it. Here's hoping.
02-15-2013, 09:09 AM #5
02-15-2013, 09:15 AM #6
Yes! I knew he was for real! Thank you for doing the research and analysis that I am not capable of. Awesome article!
02-15-2013, 09:27 AM #7
02-15-2013, 10:09 AM #8
I looked at Diamond's brooksbaseball profile for 2012 and was struck by 2 things. 1 is how infrequently hitters are swinging in 2-0 and 3-1 against him, and, how Diamond seemed to thrive in those counts. 8:1 and 7:1 GB/FB ratios on his fastball in those counts, and only 1 HR.
edit: actually those are GB/FB ratios to righthanders only. LHH seemed to fair a bit better
Last edited by Willihammer; 02-15-2013 at 10:15 AM.
02-15-2013, 10:27 AM #9
I think last year was his ceiling and that unless he has lights-out control all season this year like he did last year he's going to come back to the pack some. Not many pitchers in the history of MLB have been able to do what Diamond did last year for their entire career so I suspect that we'll find out this year if it was a one year semi-fluke or if he's just that good.
02-15-2013, 01:47 PM #10
What gives me hope that Diamond could be a lasting talent is that even when he "regressed" after the ASB, his 2nd half ERA was still just over 4. Not exactly terrible. My prediction for '13 is an entire season of 3.90 ERA ball.
02-15-2013, 01:57 PM #11
So i'd say he'll be a 4.20 ERA type of pitcher from year to year, +/- about 0.25. So he's probably a #2-#3 type of pitcher I think, talent wise. If you can get guys like that out the Rule 5 draft you're pretty happy with it.
02-15-2013, 02:43 PM #12
The Twins 2014 rotation could look something like this anyway:
** Trevor May & Alex Meyer knocking on the door
02-15-2013, 02:51 PM #13
If Diamond can repeat close to what he did last year he'll be a 3.7-4.00 ERA player over his career.