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I would say that the outcome of Smith's tenure was virtually indistinguishable from sabotage, but I don't want to incur the wrath of a weepy demand for apology like the one in another thread questioning the competence of the front office.Quote:
Originally Posted by Seth Stohs
Instead, let's just say that Seth's praising of Smith with faint damns reminded me of Simpsons creator Matt Groening's Life in Hell classic:
http://languagelog.ldc.upenn.edu/myl/Mistakes2.jpg
And the Bill Smith looked so respectable up until the 6th inning of game 1 of the 2010 divisional series...
Firing Terry Ryan less than two years into his cleanup job seems a little rash.
Awesome.Quote:
Originally Posted by LaBombo
I wouldn't say Smith's run was total catastrophe. It bears repeating that most all the pieces we are excited about for the future came during his tenure. I'm not convinced Ryan would've signed Sano, for example. Lots of mistakes, but that shouldn't prevent us from overlooking the positives.
1. Gardy has a much better winning percentage then Tom Kelly. Gardy also has a better winning percentage then Joe Maddon, Jim Leyland, Bruce Bochy. .Should Maddon be fired? To evaluate Managers purely on Winning Percentage is silly.Quote:
Originally Posted by thrylos98
BTW- Childress firing was more about lockerroom mutiny (Not a real comparable situation-that I know)
2. The Twins haven't won the World Series for 21 years. This is true. But I think it should also be stated that a successful season doesn't always end with a World Series. Making the Playoffs is a successful season. Winning 90 games is a successful season. Billy Beane has never Won a World Series, neither has Andrew Friedman nor Jon Daniels. Perhaps GM's should only be given a certain time-frame to win a World Series. I just disagree with the notion that this is the sole measure of a GM's effectiveness.
Gardy's on a one year contract; the writing is on the wall. Consider how little the team spent on winning in 2013. TR, with some help from BS, has taken a bottom feeding Minor system and turned it into a top 5.
Aside from the inflammatory title and personal attacks, I disagree with both the premise and the solutions offered by the author.
First, why did the Twins lose almost 100 games two years in a row? Injuries, aging stars, bad luck, and the inevitable dip in talent level when a middle market team drafts in the lower half of the first round for several years. If your budget isn't $200 million dollars, you can't replenish your roster by simply whipping out the checkbook and signing a CC Sabbathia or an A-Roid any time you want. A middle market team needs to develop most of its talent from within its minor league system.
Second, how much of the bad fortune can be blamed on Gardenhire and Ryan? Aren't these the same guys in charge when the Twins were winning division titles? This is like blaming a ship captain because the tide went down.
Third, will bringing in Molitor and some other GM make the tide go up? No, of course not. Hicks, Benson, Arcia, Rosario, etc, will arrive no matter who's in charge, and then the team will get better, no matter who's in charge.
I will grant that the current bandage approach probably won't work. When your pool of possible pitchers looks like a Tommy John encounter group, the probability that you will field a good staff of starters doesn't look very promising. Just like the last two seasons, the long-shot 'if's' are piling up so high that the chances of the Twins making it to the post-season are slim.
However, once you acknowledge the inevitability of these large swings in talent level for mid market teams, then you realize we're in one now, and you realize that if you're going to remain a Twins fan, you'll have to be patient. If you expect your team to win its division every year, then you should buy a Yankees cap.
Seriously? We are comparing baseball records to football records? The best team in baseball was 0.605 winning percentage. Chicago didn't make the playoffs in the NFL last year at 10-6 (.625). If you want to argue that Gardy should be fired you need to come up with a better comparison.Quote:
Originally Posted by thrylos98
Sparky Anderson .545 Win %
Whitey Herzog .532
Tommy Lasorda .526
Gardenhire .523
By the way, big difference:
Chilly 39-35 (.527) vs Gardy at .523
Gardy in playoffs 6/11 seasons, where a smaller percentage of teams make it in.
Chilly 2/5
You make a very interesting point about Sano. I wish that the "like" buttons were working today.Quote:
Originally Posted by TheLeviathan
The Twins have gone from 90+ game winners to 90+ game losers despite going from bottom 10 payrolls to top 10 payrolls. Yes, they lost a ton of games from Mauer, Morneau, and Span in 2011, but they lost about as many in 2012 with all of them healthy, or at least in the lineup.Quote:
Originally Posted by jimbo92107
I have no idea who you're talking about when you cite "aging stars" as a reason for the losing seasons. None.
The lower draft positions are a good point, right up until you consider the fact that just as the drought of prized prospects should be hitting the big club, they had a massive infusion of payroll that should easily make up for the absence of a couple of fast-rising prospects due to low draft picks.
On the other hand, your description of the potential Twins pitchers as "A Tommy John encounter group" was one of the best quips I've read on this forum or any other, and would like your permission to use it in offline Twins conversations, with my assurance that I will fully credit you for coining it.
Great post. I think the bad luck because of injuries is the real deal. The Bill Smith era will take a few years to cleanup but a decade of playoff contention spoiled fans a bit. TR is rebuilding and it might take another year but it is coming. I personally think this team is better this year and will finish near .500. The middle of the order COULD be above average with a pitching staff much better than last years. Gardy will keep his job and I will make the bold prediction that a strong August and September will warrant an extension. Im what you would call an optimistic Twins fan:-)Quote:
Originally Posted by jimbo92107
Well said. Having grown up watching the Twins of the late 70's (post-Carew) and early 80's, I can handle a couple of bad years. While this year might not be great, it is easy to look forward to the following years. Gardy will have to earn his extension by showing he can work with young players and help build a contender from the ground up. Terry Ryan isn't going anywhere soon.Quote:
Originally Posted by Twins Twerp
I've been critical of this organization's culture for awhile now, so I understand the frustration, but I DO still have a degree of respect for what Gardenhire and Ryan accomplished. In the early 2000's, with contraction looming, it must have felt like it was a small, dedicated core against the baseball world. And with fairly solid talent evaluation and development, the Twins again became division contenders.
But that was then. And as some have pointed out, the method that got the team to be AL Central contenders may have been the same method that kept them from contending for the title: a small ball, fit-the-mold mentality.
I think Ryan is a smart, dedicated baseball man. I think Gardy is a dedicated man, but that's about it. I'm looking forward to watching how the new coaches can impact team culture and chemistry. That's where I stand, at least.
Hope you enjoy Twins Daily. There are some brilliant, die-hard fans here, and if you listen (read) as well as post, you'll probably really enjoy it.
This is all well and good, but we can't look at winning percentages in a vacuum. Obviously we must compare them to the winning percentages of the NFL head coaches of teams from the same home city whose tenure overlapped with these managers. Then, and only then, can we truly gauge their managerial performances. For example, Sparky Anderson's teams in Cincy fared much better than their NFL counterparts. However, during the last half of his Tigers tenure, he actually had a lower winning percentage than Wayne Fontes did with the Lions over that same span. When Sparky was elected to this hall of fame in 2000, I know this weighed heavily on the minds of the voters, and he's quite fortunate it did not doom his candidacy.Quote:
Originally Posted by Physics Guy
That's sarcasm for those of you that missed it.
---Good post. On the whole, I lean in favor of regime change also. I respect Ryan and Gardenhire as quality guys and good baseball people, and I've never understood the rabid anti-Gardy wing of the Twins fan base. To me, they are to baseball discussion what birthers are to political discussion.Quote:
Originally Posted by LastOnePicked
But while I appreciate what Ryan and Gardy have done for the Twins, I think it's time for some new blood. I sense a certain staleness in the organization. I'm normally not a big "fire the coach/manager/GM" guy - it happens too often in pro sports not because it's the best move, but it's the easiest move. But sometimes, you need to shake things up. Sometimes when the same voices have been speaking for too long, people stop listening. And then change for change's sake can be a good thing. I think that's where we are with the Twins, but I sure hope I'm wrong.
welcome aboard patmearesfan dont let the negitive responses get to you.
but here at Twins Daily (as i should know best) they are looking for a more softer appraoch and no name calling .
Also the guys running this site are prof.writers , they get on me all the time because i dont spell a name correcty
or you the proper punctuation. dont worry tone it down some and have a good time on this or any site...
To me if your fan you deserve to have a voice, but this is a little more toned down site , in due time you will see whos
a management fan and who isnt .
While many here feel the same way as you do , most would agree the time for changing leadership was in october.
The cards have been dealt so lets see if we can bluff our way to a semi decent season , sit back and enjoy watching the
players and the kids develope....
Agree- Winning Percentages are not a great way to evaluate a MLB Manager. How many games does the Best Manager of All-Time when with Last Year's Pitching Staff? 68. I'm not saying Gardy should never be let go. I'm open to hearing more of Last One Picked's Culture argument. There can be a good case to be made for different voices/different perspectives being needed. after a certain number of years. I am just skeptical of the automatic reaction that falling off a cliff is because of Gardy.Quote:
Originally Posted by one_eyed_jack
Terry Ryan is elite at his job, he has eye for talent and knows the game of baseball better than most. The fact of the matter is Terry R. had to pick up the pieces to a puzzle that got tossed on the floor. While he was out I do recall there were a couple of major transactions that went down that could have really helped this organization if they were handled the right way (santana deal, and letting Torii walk without trying to move him). Fast forward to today I give Terry R. more credit for the deals or signings he did not make. When looking at this years free angecy market especially in regards to pitching other than maybe Zach G. most of what was available was way over priced, yuck in many cases. Everyone knows you win consistantly by buliding from within, bottom line. To spend money because you have it is the most ridiculous dumb business decision a manger can make in any business. We are all passionate fans I get that but lets show some patience people and enough with the knee jerk reacting. We have some really talented young players coming through the system lets give them a chance.
Seth, my brother, the farm system dropped off because of Ryan.....smith acquired some talent as GM. He made two awful trades, but the lack of young players on this team the last few years is all on Ryan. I am grateful that Smith was GM when sano was available, and not Ryan.
Ryan has gutted the payroll, such that adjusted for baseball inflation, it is no higher now than the dome days. He clearly will not sign players, even after promises to ticket holders and tax payers. He willfully ignores numbers, see Correia, for scouting. How many 90 loss seasons and lining the owners pockets should the taxpayers and fans put up with?
I love the strawman of 200 million in another post. If Ryan had spent to 100 million this year, the team would likely be much, much better.
How many years of not using money on payroll, and being awful, should be tolerated before asking for new leadership?