I cant believe Roserio and Pinto didnt make the list. I am really surprised be that.
Perhaps I'm biased, but I wouldn't trade Rosario, Pinto, Thorpe or Polanco for too many of the guys 80-100.
I think Jokin did a reverse scoring to get the points system he has - which I think probably many publications would do (e.g. Buxton #1 overall, counts 100 pts, Stewart #40 overall, counts 60 pts).
I'd probably do a weighting system, and weight the top 20 prospects much more heavily as they typically, at least in BA's rankings, where top 20 prospects offer 1.5 WAR or higher during their controlled years at a 48% clip, whereas from #21-40 are at 28%, and the rest they do achieve that same contribution at around a 22% clip.
5 in 10 of #1-20 = 1.5 WAR+
3 in 10 of #21-40 = 1.5 WAR+
2 in 10 of #41-100 = 1.5 WAR +
The interesting thing I found, is that Callis and Mayo, said of Buxton, there really wasn't any discussion over him being #1. It was "Buxton, and then the rest." Which, Boegarts was in MLB last year and held his own. Tavares had 4 hits in a ST game last year against the Twins and that guy is a Manny Ramirez/Barry Bonds (sans the BBs) waiting to happen, just a violent swinger who barrels balls. Archie Bradley, that guy will likely win 20 games at one point. Mark Appel is another. Miguel Sano, "will win HR titles, even at Target Field"...and yet, "no contest on Buxton being #1."
Anyone have any background on Trout's 'hype' or press when he was #1. I mean, he was #1 over Bryce Harper on some lists...then #2 on others. I wonder if those same guys would put Buxton over Harper (for those who had him #1).
And not that 'hype' means anything for production...but curious. I liked Trout better, but wasn't as cogniscient of what everyone was saying so much, as I am now - maybe because I'm a Twins fan, or maybe just because it wasn't there as it is now.
Baseball America gives Buxton a 75 overall. Pipeline gives him a 75 overall. Prospectus, I believe also gives him a 75.
80 - is sure fire hall of famer.
Anyone have what Trout got in 2012 in those publications?
Mayo was one of the few guys who ranked Trout over Harper. Frankly, he might have been the only big name to do so (although the others would have had him at #2 or 3 at worst).
Rosario is getting knocked for the PED suspension and some still question his ability to stick at second. He might be a strong bat at second or might end up as a sorta utility bench bat that can play some second and back up the corners. Jury is still out on him. Others like him a lot more than mlb.com does.
Responding to another post, I think Thorpe is on the radar but just needs more time. A year from now he might very well be like the Red Sox' Owens, who just shot up lists.
I know you know, but I think it's worth the extra effort to make sure to remind ourselves that Rosario's suspension is NOT for PEDs, but rather a 'drug of abuse'.
The top 4 systems in my mind are the Pirates, Cubs, Astros, and Twins. You could argue the Red Sox belong in that top tier as well.
I find it incredulous that no one else has signed in on the statement that I made earlier about Mickey and Willie being better at age 20 to 22 than Trout and Hamilton also for that matter. In fact has there ever been any two better than Mantle and Mays at such an early age? Henry Aaron would qualify also except I think he may have been a little bit older than "The Mick" and "Say Hey".
As for the show itself, most everything has been said. But if I ever have to watch the same three episodes of Bucks on the Pond over and over again, I'll have to cry. Or drink. Another tough choice.
An argument could be made that Mantle was the most deserving of the MVP in his 20 year old season, but there's a lot of people who think Trout was the most deserving of the MVP year the past two seasons, you can count myself among them.
But if I must...
1. Ted Williams
2. Mel Ott
3. Mike Trout
4. Alex Rodriguez
5. Frank Robinson
6. Al Kaline
7. Ken Griffey, Jr.
8. Mickey Mantle
9. Willie Mays
10. Jimmie Foxx
For a list of top seasons at age 20, go here.
I believe Alex Rodriguez to be steroid free at that point.
I also believe Ted Williams to be in the discussion with Babe Ruth as the best baseball hitter ever.
Imagine Ted Williams with 4.5 more seasons, 3 of which at ages 24, 25, 26. The others at 33-34.
AVG - .350-.380 AVG
HR - 35-40
RBI - 130-160
OBP - .500
OPS+ - 215-235
AVG - .320-.360
HR - 25-30
RBI - 85 - 100
OBP - .480-.500
OPS+ - 165-200
He could have hit 50+ HR a year if he wanted to, but instead went for contact, his BB/K rates are unmatched. 3-to-1, 4-to-1.
Ted Williams could have sold out for more home runs at a net loss to his offensive production, no question but he was a smarter hitter than that.
As far as Ichiro goes, I've heard he can light it up in batting practice but I haven't really seen any of it so I don't know. But clearly there is a disconnect somewhere with Ichiro, I don't think he deliberately decided to not hit any home runs.