Projections have Twins headed for fourth-straight 90-loss season
Clay Davenport, a co-founder of Baseball Prospectus, has released his initial projections for the 2014 season and, ooh boy, the Twins are not faring well. According to his calculations, the Twins will finish the year in last in the AL Central and, once again, lose 90 games.
How is that possible?
Offensively, Davenport expects the Twins to score just 669 runs – the lowest in the American League. Among those his system does not favor includes Kurt Suzuki (.233/.295/.350) as well as heavy regression for Joe Mauer (from an OPS of 880 to 765). Positively, his projections show Josh Willingham and Oswaldo Arica taking significant steps forward.
On the other side of the ball, the projections suggest that the Twins will allow 752 runs – the second-highest total in the American League. As far as the pitching goes, the current four horsemen of the Twins rotation – Ricky Nolasco, Phil Hughes, Mike Pelfrey and Kevin Correia – are estimated to go 34-46 with a 4.45 ERA.
The Twins have been vocal in saying that they are not finished shopping for the offseason so the projection could change but, as of right now, math is not in their corner.