Originally Posted by

**Oxtung**
re:Mauer's projection

We don't know what projection system he is using to derive his predictions. Some of them emphasize regression to the mean very significantly. Beyond that there are some very good reasons that he is projecting Joe to have a down year.

First, as others have said, Joe is being compared to other 31 year olds who are entering their decline phase. Second, Joe's injury plagued year when he OPS'd .729 is being included in the data that drove the prediction, that is surely going to cause a regression to his statistics. Third, Joe had a high BABIP, it was .383 last season (.300 is about average) and a regression to the mean looks to be in order causing all of his stats to suffer. Fourth, Joe's K% has been steadily increasing over the last 3 years, from 11% to 18%.

It really isn't surprising that the math predicts Mauer to significantly regress considering the inputs.