I mean, yeah, that'd be sweet and all, but lets be realistic here. He's hit 32 HRs in the last 4 years combined, never once hit above 30 in a season (28 in 2009, but most besides that is 13 in 06 - 8 years ago), only OPS'd above 900 twice (one of those being the 2009 outlier and the other also in 2006). What you're suggesting is basically that Mauer is going to turn into the Minnesota Miguel Cabrera, if you're expecting his HR power to suddenly triple to quadruple and his OBP and BA to stay at all similar to his career norms.
Originally Posted by h2oface
We don't know what projection system he is using to derive his predictions. Some of them emphasize regression to the mean very significantly. Beyond that there are some very good reasons that he is projecting Joe to have a down year.
First, as others have said, Joe is being compared to other 31 year olds who are entering their decline phase. Second, Joe's injury plagued year when he OPS'd .729 is being included in the data that drove the prediction, that is surely going to cause a regression to his statistics. Third, Joe had a high BABIP, it was .383 last season (.300 is about average) and a regression to the mean looks to be in order causing all of his stats to suffer. Fourth, Joe's K% has been steadily increasing over the last 3 years, from 11% to 18%.
It really isn't surprising that the math predicts Mauer to significantly regress considering the inputs.
While .300 may be average, Mauer has a career average of .349 for BABIP. In fact he has never been below .300 and the only time he was .300 was his rookie season. Other than that his low is .319, which he did twice.
Originally Posted by Oxtung
Since Mauer doesn't hit a lot of home Runs or Strike Out, he will have a high BABIP as those are the "negatives" in the formula.
I have a hard time swallowing projections like this. In a 100 years I cannot imagine Mauer going backwards in OPS. It anything manning 1st base should result in beefed up numbers all around. We will be seeing greater productivity from Plouffe, Floriman, Dozier, Hicks, Arcia etc. this year. It is Tom Kelly's maxim that a hitter needed 1500 to 2000 ABs before they hit their stride. We will see if that is true with these players. I would love to see Sano, Buxton and Meyer make the team sometime this year. I see having a great outfield defense with Hicks and Buxton out there sometime this year. I see their pitchers reaping some benefit from an improved defense. How much? Let's say 5% to 8%. I see our starting pitchers going deeper into their starts and less wear and tear on the bullpen. Now will all of this result in a winning season? Beats me! I do think they will win 74-77 games. I see 2014 setting the stage for 2015 when we will see a more mature Twins team on the field with Pinto, Sano, Buxton, Arcia and Hicks as fulltime players and maybe Rosario is on the team in some role. We should also see Meyers, Gibson and May playing larger roles. This team has more potential talent than the 1982-1986 teams that won two World Series and we have front row seats in watching them mature and realize their potential. I cannot wait for the day when the rest of the talent has arrived like Thorpe, and Berrios and Kepler and Santana. I will enjoy watching them stick it to the Yankees and the American League East. I have friends who are Yankee fans who have been rubbing it in for the past ten+ years and it is time they got what they have coming to them. I will just sit back and smile.
Look at the same system's conservative projections for Miguel Cabrera. This system doesn't predict anyone to be a star.
The concern in the projections is pitching. They spent an awful large amount of money to tread water.
The team won't be more mature with those guys, but more fun to watch. I can easily see 90 losses this season the way it sits and am hoping Sano makes it out of spring training, along with Pinto and Arcia, Buxton joins in June with perhaps Meyer, and Hicks sometime this year. 90 losses would be easier to take with the young guys as to the same o, same o as the last few years.
Originally Posted by dakotanative
By "tread water" do you mean "barely stay alive" or "comfortably keep oneself from drowning?" Last year was more of the former and I'm hoping this year is more of the latter.
Originally Posted by DJL44
So outside of his injury riddled season, he expects Mauer to have his worst season ever after moving from catcher to 1B?!
Count me in the corner of those who finds this laughable.
Yup, but all a projection system is going to see is that absurdly high BABIP and determine that he is ripe for regression. Frankly after looking at it a little closer I think he is going to regress as well. Will he OPS .750? That's probably a bit severe but I also don't think he'll approach .900 either. His K% is very concerning at first glance and he isn't going to have a .383 BABIP this season again to help obscure his increasing contact problems (in comparison to his previous seasons). The good thing though is that his BB% remains very strong. It's also possible that he hits more home runs since he's not getting beat up as much.
Originally Posted by SweetOne69
Fangraph has the Twins rotation ranked 28th as it sits now .....if the planets dont line up , it could be another 90+ loss season, just saying
Projections are just that - projections. I usually don't get too worked up about them and especially regarding the Twins b/c I'm a homey. However, after just a just review of their projections I found the following areas that I would also question besides Mauer's expected regression.
1. Joe is predicted to play 138 games - at 1B ???
2. The 669 runs scored by the Twins would be 4th in the NL.
3. Only 2 teams are projected to win 90 ob games; Detroit-91 & St Louis-90.
4. The CWS is expected to be 3rd in the AL central?!?!?
I'm sure there are more that seem a bit of a stretch. Point is: This projections is as satisfying as that empty beer can in the trash can. Bartender, a round for everyone.
Correction. Add Tampa to #3 with 90.
I would bet that Mauer is being projected for typical catcher regression, even though he won't be catching anymore.
Aside from that, I don't think losing another 90 games is outlandish. I don't think we've improved very much at all. I am not a Hughes or Nolasco fan at all. I don't really expect Hughes to be better than any of the garbage we've been running out there. Nolasco is better but I would think the improvement from having him would be offset by regression from Correia, Fien, Swarzak ,Thielbar.
The offense remains putrid and lost its second best player. Ryan spent money this off-season which is good, but I don't think the team is improved. I'd predict the same record as last season 66-96.
I like your optimism. Nothing wrong with optimism now and then.
Oh, everybody regresses to the mean, how thoughtful!
To be fair, everybody kind of does. So while we make take issue with the stats of some individuals, the end results are probably not as far off as we'd like to think.
Originally Posted by PseudoSABR
The silver lining is that all of the people who love prospect lists and the Rule 4 draft will have something to look forward to in 2015.
Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp
Originally Posted by notoriousgod71
Compounding the abusrdity of the derived math in his scenario, is the fact that he supposedly is factoring in for Mauer playing First Base full-time, not Catcher. If you click one level deeper in his skewed schema, with Mauer playing Catcher, he projects Mauer batting at:
Davenport @ Catcher: .286/.366/.429-------->.795 OPS BABIP: ~.324 AB: 483
Davenport @ First Base: .277/.356/.409----->.765 OPS BABIP: ~.325 AB: 537
The numbers for Mauer at Catcher are near the other low-ball projection I could find, from ZIPS, only ZIPS has these numbers with Mauer, but at Frist Base:
ZIPS @ First Base: .292/.378/.414----->.792 OPS BABIP: .334 AB: ~510
The other projections from Rotoworld are all computed with Mauer as a Catcher, and all suggest much better performance numbers, and the composite-derived-BABIP and OPS from the 3 projections are much more realistic: OPS @ .820 to go along with a very fair BABIP @ ~.342:
Oliver is the most optimistic, again at Catcher:
.300/.382/.449 with an OPS @ .832 and BABIP @ .347, AB: 523.
Based on the other studies I just posted, and for the Twins' fortune's sake, the Davenport model is the low-ball number, and that Mauer is nearer to the Oliver projection on the high side....sadly, even with that type of decent production from Mauer, this team is still projected to be in the bottom quintile in hitting in 2014.
Originally Posted by TheLeviathan
.331 15 HR 85 RBI .420 OBP .851 OPS 152g