Originally Posted by

**Oxtung**
Considering that their predictions are ultimately derived from an underlying equation does it surprise you that it looks formulaic?

Many people, and I'm not just talking to you here Pseudo, seem to be having problems with these predictions. IMO you are all looking at these too literally. Predictions like these aren't saying, "Hey this is exactly what is going to happen!" Rather they are saying, "Given the data we input, this has the highest probability of occurring." However, like any data set when your n=1, as is the case with Joe Mauer, their confidence level is going to be pretty darn small and their error bars are going to be very large. Now, when you apply statistical modeling to a team, and your accounting for not just 1 player but 25, now you have something that can be given a little bit more credibility.