I had Freeland in the mix for #5 in my last Draft Preview.
I had Freeland in the mix for #5 in my last Draft Preview.
I'm not terribly excited about Nola, but he wouldn't be the worst pick there. I think I'd rather have one of the big 5 that fell (even if that's Hoffman due to injury) or Freeland/Gordon right now over Nola... I do think that there's something worth saying about getting someone who can sign under slot here (unless someone else does that above them). Freeland might be the BPA who could be signed for a bit under slot allowing them to bring home a high ceiling high school arm in the second. Not a bad idea.
"Zimmer will show you two 70-grade pitches in addition to his 93-97 mph fastball -- a yellow hammer curveball with depth and angle, and a mid-80s changeup with great arm speed and some late action to it. He's an outstanding athlete, as you might expect from a converted position player, and has less mileage on his arm than most college products.
He does use a fourth pitch, a below-average slider that he needs to junk or at least limit to just a few pitches a game....
Zimmer finished his season on fire, punching out 63 and walking eight in his last eight starts of the summer, half of them after a promotion to Double-A Northwest Arkansas, and as long as his shoulder is happy he should move quickly to Triple-A. He's the future ace the Royals have been trying to develop since they traded Zack Greinke."
While Freeland has a better mix of pitches and command he doesn't have a single one that is a potential 70 pitch. Zimmer has 2. Also, Zimmer's main secondary pitch is a big curve. You could definitely be right about the delivery. I haven't seen Zimmer pitch in a year.
On a different note....how lucky are his parents for having two potential top 10 pick sons? I'm a huge fan of younger brother Bradley Zimmer. Wish he had at least one plus-plus tool so I could make a legit argument that the Twins should draft him at #5.
I'm not sure it's fair to compare a 22-year-old with 1.5 years of professional development with a 20-year-old with 0 professional development.
The scouting reports I have read say that Freeland flashes a 70 slider. "Flashes" vs "Shown"? It certainly has potential to be a Plus Plus pitch.
K. Zimmer was the best college pitcher available at #5. Freeland will likely be the best college pitcher available at #5.
Take the BPA, don't try to save money and MAYBE use that later in the draft to MAYBE sign a guy you MAYBE otherwise might not be able to (some 30+ picks later).
I agree with Mike. Take BPA even if that's a HS short stop. (I hope it's not). I'm really intrigued by Hoffman. He'll miss a few starts but then make a few before the draft. If he doesn't have any set backs in those starts, the Cubs will have a real tough decision to make between him and Jackson. The Cubs system is absolutely loaded with hitters right now - I think they have 4 bats in most top 50 lists. Earlier this season they were linked to Beede but he has been less than impressive lately. I think they'd jump at a healthy Hoffman leaving us with Jackson.
1) Mia - $14MM - (#36, #39, #43)
2) Hou - $13MM - (#37, #42)
3) Tor - $9.5MM - (#9, #11)
4) KC - $8.5MM - (#17, #28, #40)
5) Col - $8MM - (#8, #35)
6) Cle - $8MM - (#21, #31, #38)
7) Mil - $7.5MM - (#12, #42)
All of those teams are in a much better position to pick someone who is falling. Additionally, the Cubs and White Sox both pick before the Twins, and any money they save on their top pick could be used again for the second round pick. It is interesting how much bonus pool money was saved in the top few picks last season. Houston signed Appel for $1.44MM under slot, and Colorado signed Gray for $826K under slot. That is some fairly significant savings that they could distribute later in the draft. If Houston pulls the same move again (and they should have some idea of the signing demands of whomever they draft), they could easily give top-10 money to the #37 pick, and probably top-5 money if they also pull from their #42 slot.
Long story short, I don't see how there will be any players available at #46 that will be worth going significantly overslot on. Any top-10 or top-15 talent that falls will be picked by some other team before he reaches the Twins.
Excellent analyis markos.
Can we say that Freeland has lesser stuff? Here is a report from his 4/4 start against Charlotte
Freeland’s mid-80s slider was at least a plus offering, flashing at least a full grade higher. He complemented his slider with a 79-82 mph curveball that was also an above-average offering. His command of his secondary stuff was superb, as more than 80 percent of his offspeed stuff went for strikes, with 16 swinging strikes, and he located his breaking stuff to both sides of the plate. Freeland, who entered college with both a slider and curveball, used his slider as his out pitch.
Again, without a denominator we can't figure exact whiff rate. But he threw 97 pitches in that start according to this: http://www.gopurpleaces.com/boxscore...seball&id=5782
How many offspeed pitches could he have thrown, esp. if he works off his fastball so much - 50? 40?
I think its safe to say he's getting whiffs at a high rate on the slider and maybe curve too.
I do question the fastball though. If he works so heavily off his fastball and only gets 6 whiffs in a start - that's not a super high percentage. He does get a lot of ground balls with it. In fact he hasn't allowed one triple or home run on the year. Funny thing about this report - Longnecker says "his fastball was very loud, as his high spin rate produced an audible cutting through the air." Well, if that was the cutter, ok you want high spin. But if you want to get ground balls on a 2 seemer you want as little spin as possible to get the most sink.
Callis and Mayo took a crack at the top 10 and both ended up having the Twins draft Jackson. It was one of four picks they agreed on. Here is the link:
They have Gordon going only 2 picks later......not that I'm saying the Twins should take him.....
My current top 10 by tier is the following:
4. Hoffman (if healthy could be moved to tier 1)
7. Beede (could move up or fall depending on his next couple starts)
I would explore both options but would prefer to move him to RF if his bat is as good as advertised. 65 hit, 65+ power, with a 70+ arm is a potential all star even in RF.